Game Changer (With Poll)

There is no way to deny the facts; yesterday in West Virginia was a significant win for Sen. Clinton.   As an Obama supporter up till now I have taken solace in the often reported "leaked" Obama projection spreadsheet. Following this spreadsheet for the last three months has helped keep from letting the highs get to high or the lows too low.  No projections can be expected to be 100% correct but this 2/6/2008 sheet has been amazingly close, until last night.  The Obama camp had originally projected a 43/55 loss and didn't come close. The events yesterday while minimal in impact to the delegate fight were significant at least in timing, a perfect proving ground for Sen. Clinton's recent central argument.

Sen. Clinton has put forth the proposition that she alone can win the "Hard working Americans, white American" vote.  Yesterday in West Virginia the primary was a perfect opportunity to highlight her central argument.  Sen. Clinton had an election (West Virginia) which should reinforce her recent assertions as she won those very voters by huge margins.  In light of a perfect proving ground if her argument has even minimal impact on the super delegates today should be the day.  

In my opinion the next 24 hours will signify any possible chance no matter how small Sen. Clinton has left.  If there are any super delegates' who would like to support Sen. Clinton and needed "cover", today is the day.  If Sen. Clinton does not get a significant commitment from super delegates today, the writing is not only on the wall but the paint is dry.  

The key number to watch today is how many super delegates Sen. Clinton picks up today.  It should be interesting to watch, if she can't move super delegates today, the central theme of her last pillar has been rejected.  If she does get significant pick up today, it signifies that one some level, some super delegates by into her proposition.  

Today really is the day, it's now or never

*PS* Can I have my post rating ability back, which I lost for no apparent reason?

Tags: Change, clinton, Game, obama, Virginia, west, WV (all tags)

Comments

42 Comments

Re: Game Changer (With Poll)

2.5 already for Obama today.

by interestedbystander 2008-05-14 04:49AM | 0 recs
Re: Game Changer (With Poll)

you have it exactly backwards.

Clinton's goal is to keep as many superdelegates undecided and not committed publicly.

her goal is to stay in the race if/until the facts show Dems would be clearly better with her.

Then she needs to go to Denver and win a Convention floor battle on multiple ballots.

So, she doesn't need any super delegates.  She needs enough to stay undecdided that no one has the "magic number" before the convention.  

If/Once Obama reaches the "magic number" then Clinton would have to decide whether to try to fight it out and have some switch by August.  But if no one has the delegates to win, she is in great shape (relatively speaking)

by yellowdem1129 2008-05-14 04:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Game Changer (With Poll)

She won't fight until the convention.... Her speech last night was conciliatory in places... This thing will go until the last primary, but, if the math is still not in her favour, she will concede....

by JenKinFLA 2008-05-14 04:53AM | 0 recs
Re: Game Changer (With Poll)

at this point just leave em, if HRC supporters actually believe this is going to the convention just leave em, and they will be disappointed in a few weeks.

by TruthMatters 2008-05-14 04:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Game Changer (With Poll)

you keep saying and believing that.

If the superdelegates stay undecided so that the magic number is not met.  She will fight it out all the way, and she should.

If the DNC includes Florida and Michigan in any meaningful way, the necessary delegates to win increases.

If the facts stay the way it is now according to some surveys: Obama loses e.c., while Clinton wins the electoral college.  She will never quit.

I'm not arguing for/against the current polls, but on mydd, yesterday that is what the electoral maps said.

If there's a case to be made, it will be made vigorously.

she's playing nice to buy time to see what happens.

if obama gets strong in the electoral college projections then she will bow out.

but if not,  she's in it

by yellowdem1129 2008-05-14 04:57AM | 0 recs
Re: Game Changer (With Poll)

No.. she absolutely should not fight all the way to the convention....  McCain has had a free ride this entre Spring... that needs to end now.

by JenKinFLA 2008-05-14 05:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Game Changer (With Poll)

What's the matter? Scared Obama can't unify the Dems? Too freakin' bad. He has only himself to blame for this mess. The point last night underscored was that he has made himself an unacceptable candidate to a growing number of people. Look at the map. He didn't win a single county in the entire state. Not only that, with the sole exception of A/A, he lost his core base of support: the youth, college educated and post college educated along with the more upscale voters. It was a total drubbing by any unit of measure. He becomes the nominee and you might as well start getting used to saying President McCain, 'cause he's never going to see the inside of the WH except as a visitor.

by SoCalHillMan 2008-05-14 07:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Game Changer (With Poll)

I honestly could give a crap about "unifying the dems"... (I will completely ignore the "sacred Obama screed)... I want someone to take McCain out to the woodshed... and I want it done YESTERDAY....

by JenKinFLA 2008-05-14 03:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Game Changer (With Poll)

"if obama gets strong in the electoral college projections then she will bow out."

Is there like an automatic "beep-beep-beep" sound when the goalposts get moved, like a truck backing up or something?

And, that one is really lovely, so amorphous, so open to interpretation, and changeability?

How EXACTLY do you quantify that?

And, that sure sounds convincing to the supers:

"Now, Senator Obama hasn't campaigned for the general, he is still in a nasty primary fight...

But JUST IMAGINE these poll numbers and OUR intepretation, and you agree, He JUST doesn't have the Electoral numbers...."

Sure, that's convincing....

by WashStateBlue 2008-05-14 05:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Game Changer (With Poll)

Fair comment, but central to that tatic is Obama's SD's count remains static, which I don't think it will.  She needs to project some "buy in" from people outside her camp, SD's are the only real way.  If she wins by 45% in WV and looses the SD fight in next 24-48 hours the naritiave changes from her win to a countdown to his nomination, a loosing propositon for her.  

by nextgen 2008-05-14 04:56AM | 0 recs
this is about obama not hillary

Obama has to win this now.  Hillary has already lost her chance to win it.

As of today he is not winning it.

To do that, he needs to get enough super delgates to support him so that with Fl. and Mich. he will have a majority of delegates.

Then he can claim it is over.

without fl. and mich. he leaves a civil rights issue on the table.

Even if that happens though, bad events can change things.

the question is why haven't all the s.d.'s come over to his side?

If/when they do, Hillary then has no choice unless she wants to go scortched earth.

which only hard-core supporters like me would support.

by yellowdem1129 2008-05-14 05:00AM | 0 recs
Re: this is about obama not hillary

What civil rights issue is left on the table without FL and MI...?

Please tell me you are not talking about "disenfranchisement".... We voted and our votes were counted... the only thing that was different is that we had no delegates as a result (yet).... that is not disenfranchisement.

by JenKinFLA 2008-05-14 05:05AM | 0 recs
Re: this is about obama not hillary

You admit to being willing to support scorched earth?  Great.  Just great.  At least you're honest...

by oliver cromwell 2008-05-14 05:25AM | 0 recs
BWWHWHWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH

AHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHA H!

by Al Rodgers 2008-05-14 07:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Game Changer (With Poll)

can we now stop with game changers? I am actually really worried about HRC supporters who really thought WV was going to change anything.

at the most, it promises that if Hillary wants we'd have a joint ticket, but she isn't going to get the nomination.

but now we head to the next "game changer"? right? and now we have to deal with HRC supporters whinning why the media won't act like WV wasn't more important.

by TruthMatters 2008-05-14 04:55AM | 0 recs
Kind of the point I was making

If a 41 point win, in a perfect state to prove her position does not move SD's in her direction it's over.  

by nextgen 2008-05-14 04:58AM | 0 recs
if you have to say its' over

you won't get hillary to quit until it really is over.

She knows that anything can happen, and right now something is happening:

the s.d.'s haven't given Obama a majority.

she's the only other option so she has 50% chance in her mind.

I agree.

by yellowdem1129 2008-05-14 05:02AM | 0 recs
Re: if you have to say its' over

how many SDs has she gotten since that 40 point win? and how many did Obama get?

yeah we are finally heading to the end. things are starting to wrap up now.

by TruthMatters 2008-05-14 05:04AM | 0 recs
Re: if you have to say its' over

She can stay in as long as she wants. It doesn't mean that the rest of the party will play with her though.

by heresjohnny 2008-05-14 05:54AM | 0 recs
nope

super delegates count at the convention.

by TeresaInPa 2008-05-14 05:33AM | 0 recs
The game changed months ago

We've been playing out the motions ever since Wisconsin.

But it's good.  This whole experience has been a party-building exercise, and, assuming we'll be as united as Clinton promises, we'll also be unstoppable in the fall, joint ticket or no.

There's no reason to call for her to get out of the race until the last primary is decided.  

I wouldn't be surprised if Democrats use an extended primary in future elections as a secret weapon.  While Republicans finish their primaries in January or February at the latest, Democrats make a "gentleman's agreement" to fight it out to the end just so we can replicate the voter registration, boosted donations, and media coverage of this season.

by Dracomicron 2008-05-14 05:38AM | 0 recs
Nah more like

Texas and Ohio.

Clinton needed to win really big there (15% or greater) to make a dent into the delegates didn't do that and it has been basically over since then, sure she still has a chance if tape of Obama is found where he is urniating on a flag with an I hate whitey shirt on or something like that, but otherwise it is over unless a meteor hits Obama...

by Student Guy 2008-05-14 07:13AM | 0 recs
You have to admit...

The chances of a meteor hitting a black Democratic nominee for U.S. president are astronomically higher than they've ever been before.

by Dracomicron 2008-05-14 07:22AM | 0 recs
it's not a game changer

but it does highlight Obama's weakness.

He needs to learn how to overcome this weakness.  

Six months ago, Hillary wasn't the champion of the white working class but now she has morphed herself into that person.

Perhaps Obama needs to change his message and campaigning to increase his percentage of these voters for the general election.

I am sure that Obama's team is working on that right now.  I think the more people get to know him the more comfortable they are with him.  In West Virginia, Obama basically spent minimal time in that state and only got 21% of that vote.  In contrast in Indiana where he spent much more time, he got 34% of that vote and they had high opinion of him.

by puma 2008-05-14 05:43AM | 0 recs
I would wait for Kentucky

As that win would include EVERY single state around Ohio.

Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana (which also borders Illinois), Kentucky, and Michigan.

by sepulvedaj3 2008-05-14 05:51AM | 0 recs
Re: I would wait for Kentucky

Wait for it to do what? We know what it's going to do. So do the Supers.

by heresjohnny 2008-05-14 05:55AM | 0 recs
Re: I would wait for Kentucky

"

Yesterday in West Virginia the primary was a perfect opportunity to highlight her central argument.
"

It was a good opportunity to make her case, but after Kentucky, it will be even more stark, as every single state around Ohio will have voted for HRC.

by sepulvedaj3 2008-05-14 06:17AM | 0 recs
Re: I would wait for Kentucky

So what? What's her argument exactly? He can't win in the Appalachian region? We know that. So do the supers. Thank god the folks in the Appalachians aren't the only ones who vote.

by heresjohnny 2008-05-14 06:25AM | 0 recs
Re: I would wait for Kentucky

So maybe she could run as the president of Ohio?

by venician 2008-05-14 08:44AM | 0 recs
Re: I would wait for Kentucky

Proving the Appalachia bias. that htey won't vote for a black guy.

How about Oregon.If Obama wins the white vote there? Would that be a game changer?

by IowaMike 2008-05-14 05:58AM | 0 recs
who the hell said anything

about bias or racism?

Racism cuts both ways.

by sepulvedaj3 2008-05-14 06:15AM | 0 recs
Re: who the hell said anything

No sorry. Racism doesn't cut both ways. Racism doesn't get whites tossed into jail and kept there with laws designed to keep them there longer than others. It doesn't get whites rounded up by the ICE even though they're citizens. It doesn't cost them elections. It doesn't force them into bad areas and bad schools. It doesn't make employers not hire them because of their names. It doesn't make employers hire non-white convicted felons over them.

by heresjohnny 2008-05-14 06:27AM | 0 recs
Re: who the hell said anything

Yeah, racism cuts both ways. We're seeing it play out in various forms throughout this election. While you make a point, I've seen plenty of examples of black racism not only towards whites but towards other blacks whose skin tone wasn't considered "black" enough. I've seen black employers deliberately exclude non-blacks (not just whites) from the application process. I've seen white friends marry into black families and not be accepted. So please don't use one set of criteria in order to paint one side as bad and the other side good. This isn't exactly a winning argument when reality is factored into the equation.

by SoCalHillMan 2008-05-14 07:52AM | 0 recs
Oregon/Washington

and Ohio/WV/Western PA/Kentucky and Indiana are very different.

If the rest of the states were the same as the West Coast and North East, the US would be a much happier place.

by sepulvedaj3 2008-05-14 06:19AM | 0 recs
Re: Oregon/Washington

There are 45 other states that aren't like OH, WV, PA, KY, & IN.

by heresjohnny 2008-05-14 06:28AM | 0 recs
I was going to comment about Michigan...

...but I realized that it wasn't really worth it.

I concede your meaningless point.

by Dracomicron 2008-05-14 07:24AM | 0 recs
Re: Game Changer (With Poll)
I never expected Obama to win WV, but I'm stunned at how bad he did throughout the entire state.  In one rural county bordering Kentucky (Mingo County), the vote was:
Clinton 88%
Obama 8%
Edwards 4%
by markjay 2008-05-14 05:55AM | 0 recs
I'm going to question your first sentence.

You state that it's a fact that WV was a significant win for HRC; but with the different meanings and implications of "significant", I have a tough time calling that a fact.

It was a quantitatively large differential; but given the oft-touted narrow demographic of WV, I'm less than convinced her win there was any more significant than Obama's blowout in DC.

by rb608 2008-05-14 07:34AM | 0 recs
I guess

I could have been more clear.  I was using significant to describe the margin of victory and importance to her trying to make her case.  I also think Obama's victories in MD and VA were equally if not more significant.  

by nextgen 2008-05-14 08:23AM | 0 recs
Re: I guess

The rest of your comment was clear enough, and I agree with your premise of the significance of the WV win as it now relates to/requires superdelegate reinforcement of the narrative.  Probably on the GOS I wouldn't have commented at all; but here, I'm perhaps oversensitive to overstatements of facts and HRC's "significance".

by rb608 2008-05-14 09:36AM | 0 recs
Understood

I guess my post was really about accountability.  If her premise had any influence with the SD's one would expect to see it demonstrated by support.  If she can't garner support after a 41 point win, her claim rings hollow.  

by nextgen 2008-05-14 10:15AM | 0 recs
There will be no more game changers.

NC was, sadly, her last chance.

by sricki 2008-05-14 08:21AM | 0 recs

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