McCain in trouble with Hispanic evangelicals
by NeciVelez, Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 05:28:41 PM EDT
In todays Politico article
The McCain-Latino disconnect one section stood out that I'd like to explore.
McCain's problem looks to be most pronounced among Protestant Latinos, who had seemed to be the GOP's doorway into the Hispanic population. From 2000 to 2004, Protestant Latinos increased their share of the total Hispanic electorate from 25 percent to 32 percent, in large part because of Bush's evangelical outreach and strategic microtargeting of the community. Even as turnout increased, support for Bush among the group rose from 44 percent in 2000 to 56 percent in 2004.
The Pew poll, however, shows that only a third of Protestant or Evangelical Hispanics intend to vote for McCain, while 59 percent support Obama -- who also enjoys a 50-percentage-point lead among Catholic Latinos, long a solid bloc of the Democratic coalition.
While McCain and Bush have similar views on most social issues, including abortion, McCain's candidacy may mark a return to an era of blue-blooded Republicans less vocal about their religious beliefs. Barack Obama, by contrast, speaks comfortably and frequently about his faith.
Data from the recent PEW Hispanic Center Study:
2008 National Survey of Latinos: Hispanic Voter Attitudes
I have a very strong interest in Latino/Hispanic voting patterns, and have been following them with interest throughout the primary and now into the general.
New National Poll: Latinos 3-1 for Obama
I also have a strong interest in the Obama campaign's outreach to evangelical Christians and Catholics, and have diaried about it
Obama to launch "Joshua Generation Project"
specifically because Latinos fall into both groups - Catholics and Protestants who tend to be evangelical (Pentecostal or Spanish Methodist) or born-again.
Republicans have thought they "owned" non-Catholic Latinos, who have voted conservative in past elections. But McCain should be shivering in his shoes at this point, because according to these figures, the Obama campaign strategies have worked amazingly well.
Here's the data from PEW that knocks me out:
(Obama column on the left McCain on the right)
Though the Non-Catholic margin is much smaller than the Catholic one, imho it is more significant since these are voters who would have - in the past been a shoe-in for McCain.
Though there were a number of commenters here who expressed concerns about the Obama campaign and faith based initiatives, I have felt that issues of faith should not be the exclusive purview of the right; neither should "family values". Just depends on how you define them.
Latinos, have the capacity to turn this election into a landslide - if we can get the turnout. The African-American voting block is a solid - but if we add in Latinos we could paint quite a few red states blue. I would like to see more effort here and on the ground put into strategizing and working to not only get more eligible Latinos registered, but on ensuring that we get more folks to the polls on election day. We need more ads in Spanish, more outreach, and more materials.
And as a bonus - the data also covered a real shift in Cuban American polling.