If he were running for the presidency against ten other people, at least two of whom are considered better front-runners, he'd know he might lose and have to face his home constituency again anyways, so maybe not.
It's odd how similar HRC's strategy is to Joe Biden's (who I plan to vote for in the NH primary).
<As he prepares to formally announces his presidential campaign, Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE) is banking on a boffo showing in South Carolina. Why? Biden figures that, a year from now, Iowa and New Hampshire voters will divide the field, choosing different candidates as winners.</p>
That'll scramble expectations heading into South Carolina, making that state, with its approx. 50 percent African American Democratic vote base, decisive. So long as Biden places third in either NH or IA, the thinking goes, he'll maintain his support in SC and is positioned to pull of the upset.>
Edwards, of course, is the only one not IN Congress. I wonder if he were still there, and still had to deal with vote trading, local constituencies, and behind-the-scenes relationships, would he still be using the same rhetoric?
You've got to remember, the "netroots" and bloggers only make up one small part of the party. The whole Democratic Party didn't suddenly jump online in 2004. Many Democrats who don't follow politics too closely but still vote - those who aren't activists - know Hillary, and think they'll support her in the primaries.
No. If he wins in Iowa, people say of course he won, he's the Governor, they've voted for him a lot, they love him there, they know him there. Iowa wasn't even in play in '92 when Harkin ran. If he loses, for obvious reasons, his campaign is over. He needs to not only overcome his poll deficit in Iowa, but also in NH, SC, or NV.
I was gonna mention Newt's wife, but Jim Treglio beat me to it. Remember, he didn't just dump his wife during cancer surgery, he was waiting for her to wake up, by her hospital bed, with divorce papers in hand! And not only did he cheat on his next wife, he did it while trying to impeach a guy for cheating on HIS! This may not have hurt him much in the past, but that's when he had just one gerrymandered conservative district to contend with. Now he'll have the whole country. We keep saying when the "dirt" on Giuliani gets more coverage, he's sunk - Gingrich is the same way.
Furthermore, he says if he gets in, it won't be until the fall. By then, much of the money and organizational talent will be sucked up, and many of the currently soft or undecided voters will have committed. Some of his current supporters may have given up on his entry by then, too. So I don't think he stands a chance, unless he gets in NOW with a mea culpa that-was-then-this-is-now bit on the wife issue.
Watching his speech now on MSNBC (they carried it CSPAN style), you notice his voice cracking when he says "When I came back from Vietnam..."
I believe this emotion. I don't think this is staged for political purposes. One, we know he's wanted to be, and expected to be, President since college. Now he realizes he will never realize his ultimate dream, and that's got to be painful on a personal level. Remember, these guys may be public pinatas, but they're still people with real emotions. Second, he was speaking about Vietnam, a personal subject for him. Remember, prior to the '04 campaign, he almost never spoke about it publicly. In his Senate campaign against Weld, he alluded to Vietnam, and that was a bombshell. And, the first time I met him, I thanked him for his service in Vietnam. Everything about him suddenly changed - his eyes dropped, he mumbled more, he was obviously in a more heartful/personal mode. The subject of Vietnam touches him inside.
Say what you will about John Kerry and his failed '04 campaign, but the emotion we saw on the Senate floor today was real.
Edwards has spoken about the government's role in the situation, just not in his campaign kickoff. Criticizing incompetency for the umpteenth time, while important, isn't flashy.
Besides, he's right: volunteers are needed in New Orleans. I just spent three months there, and I can't count the times residents told me, "Thank God you're here! If it wasn't for you faith based programs and churches, nothing would ever get done!" Well, now, there are a number of good secular groups, but it is true: the government response is a joke. This can be fixed, and should be fixed, but until Landrieu's hearings and held, Jindal is elected Governor, and someone new is in charge of the Executive Branch, the only thing that will get done is by the volunteers. Edward's call for volunteers and his Opportunity Rocks college programs will actually get more tangible work done in the immediacey (when it needs to get done) then calling for more government action when those in power don't listen to you.
I don't want Webb on the ticket. Every time a refreshing voice comes along, there's always talk of that voice being President or, at least, Vice President. That's all well and good, but the White House isn't the only important institution out there. The Senate and the House still matter, and we need voices like Webb's there. That was something in Feingold's statement about not running for President - he feels that, with a majority and added seniority, he can be a more effective voice in the Senate (as well as the fact that he can't win the White House). So hope for Webb to become a Subcommittee Chair in a couple years, and a Committee Chair further down the road, where he'll have real Senate power and influence.
Sndeak, at least he mentioned it. For him, that's a first - admitting it exists is a big step. Besides, "global climate change" is what Al Gore calls it now, too. When you say "global warming," people in climates that are getting colder pish posh it, even though the details show the cold is because of the heat. The name needs to reflect that. Gore even corrected Jon Stewart when Stewart called it "global warming."
Did you see Chuck Grassley's reaction during that section of the speech? As happy as a puppy with a new chew toy. Yay for Iowa ethanol pork!
Much better than Kaine's from last year. None of that repetitive cliche stuff - "There is a better way. There is a better way." I swear, I thought Kaine was trying to hypnotize us all.
What really excites me isn't Webb's tough posturing or background, though. The style aside, the populism aside, he mentioned New Orleans, and Bush didn't! This is one of the defining issues of our time, and Bush ignores it. I don't know if Katrina was in the speech Reid's staff gave to Webb or not, but I know it was in Webb's own text, and that's as it should be. Woohoo!