SurveyUSA - Democrats lead in Iowa

The latest poll from SurveyUSA has all three Democratic candidates running ahead of their Republican rivals in Iowa.

Results listed here.

  • Clinton defeats each Republican by single digits.  She tops Giuliani by 8 (50% to 42%), Thompson by 6 (50% to 44%), and Romney by 7 (50% to 43%).
  • Obama beats Giuliani by the same margin as Clinton (50% to 42%), but wins by 10 against Thompson and Romney (51% to 41% in both match-ups).
  • Edwards continues to perform the best, defeating Giuliani by 14 points (53% to 39%), Thompson by 17 points (54% to 37%), and Romney by 16 points (54% to 38%).

My comments:  These numbers, like the results in Missouri, are much better for Obama.  As I noted before, Obama only runs worse in the states he hasn't spent much time in.  That is to be expected because he's the new candidate in this race.  Hillary Clinton has been on the national stage for 15 years while John Edwards has been campaigning for president since 2003 and has actually been on the ballot in all 50 states.

Right now, Obama is running strong in states like Iowa, Missouri, and Colorado because they're early voting states (CO and MO vote on Feb 5) -- Obama has spent more time on them to win the nomination.  By contrast, Ohio doesn't vote until after Feb 5, making it rather pointless to focus on it now.  But should Obama become the nominee, expect those numbers in Ohio to shift dramatically.

Edwards supporters can also rejoice over the fact that John Edwards remains the strongest contender against the Republicans -- but the most important thing to me is that all of our candidates are winning.

Tags: clinton, Edwards, general election, Giuliani, Iowa, obama, poll, Romney, SUSA, Thompson (all tags)

Comments

12 Comments

Re: SurveyUSA - Democrats lead in Iowa

Right now, Obama is running strong in states like Missouri ,

- No he is not , only against Romney (11 points , same as Clinton ).

 Beating a candidate by 2 or 3 points isn't running strong unless you expect him/her to be losing . Same as losing by 2 or 3 points , thats all within the MOE.

 So No he is not running strong , he is competitive.

Same situation in Colorado .

by lori 2007-09-23 02:54PM | 0 recs
Re: SurveyUSA - Democrats lead in Iowa

Considering these are both Republican-leaning states which we lost in 04 and 2000, the fact that Obama is running ahead or even with all of his GOP rivals (and doing better than Senator Clinton) represents a strong showing in my opinion.

by Namtrix 2007-09-23 03:14PM | 0 recs
Re: SurveyUSA - Democrats lead in Iowa

Exactly...The fact that Clinton is not doing much better then him is amazing...So much about Obama's not being electable by the Hillary supporters , but he does better then her in Iowa , CO and many other states.

Just like the diaryst pointed out , he only does badly in states that he hasnt campaigned in constantly.

Obama better be ready to pick up the notch and try hard to visit all those states that are scheduled to vote on Feb 5th.

He should be a workhorse and campaign his ass off...I'm a bit worried that he may be getting a bit tired..Get your sleep time and let's roll Obama...It's not like you're sweating or anything...Eat your food , get your 8 hours of sleep and lets roll.

by JaeHood 2007-09-23 03:27PM | 0 recs
Re: SurveyUSA - Democrats lead in Iowa

To lose OH to major GOP contenders such as Rudy and Thompson by doubt digit is not acceptable. BTW, it's not even the first poll showing such discrepancy. Q poll showed similar thing.

by areyouready 2007-09-23 03:32PM | 0 recs
Re: SurveyUSA - Democrats lead in Iowa

It's over a year before the general election and Obama hasn't paid any attention to Ohio yet.  That gap will close if/when Obama becomes the nominee.

Also, Quinnipiac had Obama crushing Thompson and Romney by double digits, while running even with Giuliani and McCain.  The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle because the two pollsters appear to use very different methods (SUSA has low undecideds, suggesting they push leaners too hard; Quinnipiac is the exact opposite).

by Namtrix 2007-09-23 03:45PM | 0 recs
I agree with this

I don't plan to get lazy in fall 2008 no matter who our nominee is, but I think Iowa would be a sure thing for Edwards.

by desmoinesdem 2007-09-23 03:10PM | 0 recs
Re: I agree with this

Iowa is not even a "sure thing" for Edwards among Democrats. Do you seriously think his "storm the corporations", "increase taxes", and the "global war on terror is just a bumper sticker" spiels are going to attract Republican voters? Come on. Let's us a little common sense.

by hwc 2007-09-23 03:45PM | 0 recs
Re: I agree with this

Attracting Republican voters is your key to winning the General election?  If so, count me out.  I'd rather have my candidate focus on turning out Dems and Independents (reality-based people).

This just begs the question:  Do you really think that Hillary will attract Republican votes?  Ridiculous!

by mbcarl 2007-09-23 04:08PM | 0 recs
Actually...

the SurveyUSA poll's cross-tabs show Edwards consistently gets at least 22% of Republican voters, even with all that talk.  Obama also gets around 22%.  Hillary gets around 16% of Republican voters.

So if your key is attracting Republican voters, then Edwards is the strongest one there.

BTW, in Iowa, Hillary consistently loses the Independent vote to the GOP candidate, even Romney.  Obama barely wins it against the GOP candidates, and Edwards wins it by slightly larger margins.

by BruinKid 2007-09-23 07:27PM | 0 recs
Re: SurveyUSA - Democrats lead in Iowa
Oh grow up!
You lost in 2000 and 2004. Work as hard as you can.
The tide of public opinion is in your favor, whether you want to admit it or not and whether you like it or not.
You people are almost as paranoid as right-wingers.
by spirowasright 2007-09-23 04:48PM | 0 recs
Re: SurveyUSA - Democrats lead in Iowa
Oh grow up!
You lost in 2000 and 2004. Work as hard as you can.
The tide of public opinion is in your favor, whether you want to admit it or not and whether you like it or not.
You people are almost as paranoid as right-wingers.
by spirowasright 2007-09-23 04:48PM | 0 recs
Hows does Edwards do against Giuliani in ....

NY?

NJ?

PA?

CT?

Just curious.  Winning Iowa is nice.  Losing NY is a disaster.  It is actually called defeat.

by dpANDREWS 2007-09-24 04:58AM | 0 recs

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