by Molee, Thu May 29, 2008 at 05:10:00 AM EDT
Richard Baehr lays it out - Obama is a weak candidate.
"Starting with the revelations about Reverend Wright, the Obama campaign has dropped from the semi-celestial status it enjoyed in the eyes of many. The gaffe-a-day express, the foot in mouth disease among Obama advisors, the glaringly weak posture on national security and foreign relations the candidate has put forth (and for which several times he has been forced to backtrack), all have damaged Obama's chances. Now he is a mere mortal -- except to the true believers, and they are not enough to put him over the top in a general election."
Baehr goes through point by point, state by state, electoral vote by electoral vote to show how Obama who is essenitally tied (or I think behind) in the popular vote, may wrestle away the nomination for near certain loss to John McCain.
Why is Obama weak?
- Kentucy, Arkansas, West Virginia (rinse and repeat)
- Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania (rinse and repeat)
- Bill Clinton had 370 and 379 electoral college votes - remember those good ol' days? when Dem nominees like Gore and Kerry weren't in photo finishes each time. HRC is on the Bill Clinton track to a trouncing of McCain in the fall.
- Because of the incredible closeness of this election, it is imperative that the SDs look closely at how delegates were awarded in the caucuses
If Obama is nominated Baehr writes: "A system built on proportional distribution of elected (pledged) delegates will have grossly expanded the popular vote margin to give one candidate a decisive victory among these delegates, which has been used to justify the shift to that candidate of super delegates."
I am glad to see that Hillary has taken her charge directly to the superdelegates
I'd like to win and she can do it. Hopefully the superdelegates will have the vision to act bravely and nominate her despite the