New Mexico: Obama 50% McCain 41%

Jesus Christ! Obama is trouncing McCain in New Mexico big time.
New Mexico will be solid for Obama in the GE.

''The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of New Mexico voters shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%.''

A month ago, Obama had a three-point advantage in the state. In February, McCain and Obama were tied. Polling in the state's U.S. Senate race also provides good news for the Democrats. Nationally, the race between McCain and Obama remains competitive in the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_conte nt/politics/election_20082/2008_presiden tial_election/new_mexico/election_2008_n ew_mexico_presidential_election

See the New Mexico map turning a stronger shade of blue at www.fivethirtyeight.com/

Prehaps, Obama won't need Richardson as his VP to gain the West, after all.

Tags: New Mexico, obama (all tags)

Comments

28 Comments

Curious how long it takes for...

...the "corner EV maps" to get updated.

by Lieber 2008-05-17 12:18PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico: Obama 50% McCain 41%

Great news. This is becoming the Purple West. If McCain wasn't from AZ, I think we would have a very competitive race here as well. NM is a very promising state for us in 08.

by zcflint05 2008-05-17 12:19PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico: Obama 50% McCain 41%

Actually, polls have shown Obama holding McCain under 50% in Arizona.

It'd be great if Arizona was to McCain in 2008 what Tennessee was to Gore in 2000.

by Angry White Democrat 2008-05-17 12:56PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico: Obama 50% McCain 41%

Agreed. McCain is VERY unpopular in his home state.

by Terrance Manley 2008-05-17 02:48PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico: Obama 50% McCain 41%

I find it amazing that McCain couldn't even manage 50% of the vote there in the Republican primary. That says to me that even Arizona Republicans don't like him that much.

Most will probably still vote for him in the fall, but will they contribute, volunteer, organize for him?

by Angry White Democrat 2008-05-17 05:32PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico: Obama 50% McCain 41%

This means the if Obama holds his NM lead along with his Colorado lead - he will only need to win one of PA, Ohio, VA, NC, MO, GA or Florida...that is pretty good odds.

by cardboard 1 2008-05-17 12:34PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico: Obama 50% McCain 41%

Is that really true? That sounds very doable.

by animated 2008-05-17 12:38PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico: Obama 50% McCain 41%

Yep

by cardboard 1 2008-05-17 12:40PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico: Obama 50% McCain 41%

But he will need to hold onto Iowa.

by MissVA 2008-05-17 12:42PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico: Obama 50% McCain 41%

He will campaign there next week.

by parahammer 2008-05-17 12:44PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico: Obama 50% McCain 41%

Wait till he gets the post convention bump.

by spacemanspiff 2008-05-17 12:44PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico: Obama 50% McCain 41%

Yeah that is true...I don't think this ge will be all that close - it feels like 96'

by cardboard 1 2008-05-17 01:03PM | 0 recs
But I thought only Hillary could win the states

she won in the primary?

by bobdoleisevil 2008-05-17 12:58PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico: Obama 50% McCain 41%

I'd rather have New Mexico in our column in that West Virginia any day. Both 5 EV's.

Albequerque, Sante Fe, Taos....
vs.
Appalachia, Coal mines and Deliverance....

Yah, no contest.

 

by Rick in Eugene 2008-05-17 01:01PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico: Obama 50% McCain 41%
Udall and Obama will both carry NM
http://www.pollster.com/08-NM-Sen-GE-PvU .php
http://www.pollster.com/08-NM-Sen-GE-WvU .php
by nogo postal 2008-05-17 01:08PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico: Obama 50% McCain 41%

Interesting to note...Obama is up over McCain on Intrade 57-37 to win the election. Now I know Intrade doesn't mean much, especially this far out, but I think it shows people taking into account the overall trends (anti-Bush sentiment, fundraising, etc.) rather than any particular poll snapshot where they are largely tied.

by animated 2008-05-17 01:09PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico: Obama 50% McCain 41%

Obama has been taking hits from HRC and McCain the past 2 months hard and he still holding his own. Once she exists in June. We can gang together and Obama will be much stronger.

Her polls are better as noone was hitting her the past 2 months.
It's basically been a free ride for HRC.

by MissVA 2008-05-17 01:14PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico: Obama 50% McCain 41%

Exactly. That's why all this talk of Hillary being a stronger GE candidate are silly. These polls don't happen in a vacuum.

by animated 2008-05-17 01:27PM | 0 recs
From the linked article

A month ago, Obama had a three-point advantage in the state. In February, McCain and Obama were tied.
How come Jerome has not updates the electoral maps on the front page (for at least a month, Obama Has been ahead!)?

Oh, silly me, because it's not flattering to Hillary.  Keep on cherry picking the polls.  Where'd the "front page polling transparancy" diary go now?

by Robert in WV 2008-05-17 01:22PM | 0 recs
Re: From the linked article

They have taken the most obscure pollster like Harris and Zogby and bunched it all together. It is a mirage.
Because Obama will ot lose WI when he won by a large margin there or MI given the obvious demographics in places like Detroit and the promixty to IL.

That's why Poblano's 538 is a lot better in it's analysis.
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

by MissVA 2008-05-17 01:26PM | 0 recs
Poblano Rocks

I love her/his work.

by Robert in WV 2008-05-17 01:30PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico: Obama 50% McCain 41%

NM is a must win but the real battle is going to be in CO.  It is very difficult for BO to get to 269 without CO unless he were to win a state that he is already behind in. I wonder why Dean planned the convention in Denver.  My guess is he knows this too.

david

by giusd 2008-05-17 01:34PM | 0 recs
GREAT NEWS!!!

NM is a perfect swing state proxy for the General Election.

► in 2004, Bush won by 0.79 percent.

► in 2000, Gore won by 0.06 percent, with Nader receiving 3.55 percent.

► in 1996, Bubba got 49.18 percent of the vote, mirroring his national vote number of 49.23 percent.

► In short, as New Mexico goes, so goes the United States.

by Al Rodgers 2008-05-17 02:41PM | 0 recs
Let me add

► Since being admitted into the union in 1912, New Mexico has voted for the winner EVERY time (23 elections), with the lone exception on 1976 (51-49).

by Al Rodgers 2008-05-17 02:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Let me add

Don't tell Al Gore that.

by MissVA 2008-05-17 02:53PM | 0 recs
Perhaps he means popular vote

Or a universe where the Supreme Court and Katherine Harris don't decide elections ^_^.

by Lord Hadrian 2008-05-17 03:23PM | 0 recs
Both

NM's popular vote correlates to national vote, and I believe if all the votes were counted, Gore would have won.

by Al Rodgers 2008-05-17 03:28PM | 0 recs
Re: New Mexico: Obama 50% McCain 41%

I am immensely pleased to see my home state turning blue at so many levels.

by username6 2008-05-17 05:03PM | 0 recs

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