The latest cup o' Z--Hillary in trouble

The last polls from Zogby show:
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?I D=1499

NC: Obama leads 51-37
IN: Obama leads 45-43 (the 5/5 half was 47-41 Obama)

So it may be over for Hillary.  I still think he's off in one
of the two states, but other polls have shown Obama gaining
in Indiana (though still behind).  I really believe the AA turnout (especially among early voters)
will sink Clinton in North Carolina.  Thoughts?

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The remaining states

I've been following Jerome's blogs closely and mostly agree
with his analysis.  Hillary Clinton is the strongest candidate.  Barack Obama has lost his mojo, with Rev. Wright is the gift that may keep on giving.  And I do think a lot of young voters will come around and vote for Clinton in the fall.

However, a look at the remaining states (and territories) makes it difficult for Clinton to gain the nomination.  And the number
of uncommitted superdelegates slowly dwindles.  She has to win at least 2/3 of them.

So let's take a look at the remaining contests:

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Can she pull it off?

Hillary--the comeback girl.

She has to win IN by margin (6%+), pull out NC or come close (<3%) and win all but one of the remaining contests.  And I think she's got the narrative of the race changed.  The other thing is she needs keep pressing the popular vote and MI and FL.

She should pull ahead in the popular vote.

And she has to freeze the SDs (except Jim Clybourn) so she can convince them that she's the right choice.

She'll be off the deathwatch, and Barack Obama will be on it.

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Zogby PA: Obama slips

The lastest from the pollster we love to hate:
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?I D=1484

Clinton 47%
Obama 42%

Obama only got 40% on today's half of the poll.  Perhaps this is the turnaround for Clinton; we shall see.  She's way ahead among Catholics, and I really think the debate is sinking Obama.  Don't be fooled by crowd sizes at campaign stops: they're overrated.

I think Hillary needs a 10%+ win; she'll need as much of that 8% undecided as possible to get it.  And I think she will.

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new round of SUSA polls--Obama losing edge

The latest round of SUSA polls shows that Clinton has narrowed the electability gap overall. While she still lags slightly behind Barry, I've noted the following:

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About the maps in the corners

They're getting redder, and it's telling us that Hillary Clinton is not any more electable than Barack Obama.  Her attacks don't have much credibility--and she's no less "elitist" than Obama.  Her duck hunting story has zero credibility.  I hope the avid readers of Taylor Marsh and Talk Left appreciate this.

I share their fears about Obama.  He could at least a drag on Democrats as Clinton will be.  And he hasn't articulated much of an economic plan.  And Rev. Wright will come back to haunt him.  But Hillary Clinton just highlights her negative with her sabotaging attacks.

So, many of you won't vote, or even vote for McCain.  You're just enabling more incompetence.  

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Meanwhile, over at Taylor Marsh...

Taylor Marsh hates Barack Obama.  Really hates him.
The latest post is a flag with two stars crossed out.
That's the one issue I actually agree with her.  Obama needs to legitimize his nomination by allowing the delegates from Florida and Michigan to be seated.

However, most of the rest of the blog has deteriorated into a screedfest, and I'm sure most of the comments posted wouldn't
meet Jerome's standards.

Taylor Marsh's blog audience is nearly all female (as far as I can tell) and full of hate for Obama.  Many of the issues raised are legitimate concerns about Obama's lack of experience, his foreign policy, and his gaming of the system.  But there's a nasty tone, especially in the comments.

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D-Corps: Democrats must show more willingness to use military force

So the Democrats are anti-military.  That's what Democracy Corps is saying in their latest survey.  And that's why McCain leads, even though their poll has no head-to-head numbers.

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2 008/04/national-security/?section=Analys is

Here's what stands out:

"Indeed, the area where Democrats are having a problem is relatively limited; it is not on "soft power" or "hard power," it is mostly just on "fire power" - perceptions of how a
Democratic president would handle the military, particularly in a crisis.
▪ Democrats now trail by 29 points (28 to 57 percent) on the question of which party would do the better job "ensuring a strong military." Last October, this deficit was
only 22 points.
▪ Similarly, by a 27-point margin (54 to 26 percent), voters see Republicans, more than Democrats, as the party that "respects the military."
▪ And by 21 points (50 to 29 percent), voters say that "not decisive enough in a crisis" describes the Democrats more than the Republicans."

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Some polls are here. Gallup is here. Rasmussen is over there.

Most of the national non-tracking polls show a tie or a slight lead for Barack Obama over John McCain.  Some of these surveys are quite detailed and are conducted over a period of three to seven days.  

Then there's the Gallup tracking poll which has showed remarkable stability since tracking began with McCain leading Obama by one point and Clinton by two points.  There hasn't been a lot of movement with McCain ahead by one or two most days over Obama.  As has been pointed out by Jerome (and others), both Clinton and Obama have different strengths and weaknesses.

Out in "right" field, there's the Rasmussen tracking poll which shows McCain gaining ground again after a dip last weekend.
McCain leads Obama 48-41 and Clinton 47-42.  Ever since the Rev. Wright story broke, McCain has broken away from a tie race to lead ever since.

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IN SUSA poll: Clinton 52, Obama 43

SUSA has polled the Indiana Democratic primary and has found Hillary ahead 52%-43%.

This is another indicator of trouble for Obama among "Taylor Marsh" Democrats, the "lunch-bucket" democrats she blogs so much about.  And if Hillary wins IN and PA and doesn't get blown out in NC, this battle continues into June.

And with the two tracking polls showing a big tightening of the Democratic race nationally, here's my take on what's happening:

1.  Obama is still vulnerable on Rev. Wright.

  1.  Obama's bowling effort will be compared to Kerry's windsurfing in 2004.
  2.  Most importantly, Obama's refusal to budge on Michigan and Florida may be putting him on the defensive.
  3.  Obama can't seal the deal.  If he can't close out the nomination race, how's he going to close the deal against McCain?
  4.  I have come to the conclusion that Clinton is unelectable also.

Now what?

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