new round of SUSA polls--Obama losing edge

The latest round of SUSA polls shows that Clinton has narrowed the electability gap overall. While she still lags slightly behind Barry, I've noted the following:
1. He's still essentially tied in Massachusetts with McCain--four polls in a row inside the MOE. 2. Both trail McCain in New Mexico, with BHO trailing by six, Hillary by three. 3. In Missouri, Hillary leads McCain by one, while Obama loses by eight. Even 20% of the AA vote goes to McCain vs. Obama. 4. In Ohio, Clinton is up 11 over McCain while Obama trails by two. I think it's downhill for Obama from here. I just don't see his support all that wide or deep. But can Clinton pull this out? She needs to win PA by 10+%, stay close in North Carolina and win Indiana by some margin. Obama's tent is getting smaller and smaller. Then maybe the supers will stop and think... I'm not counting on it however.

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Massachusetts, Missouri, New Mexico, Ohio, SUSA (all tags)



Re: new round of SUSA polls--Obama losing edge

Let me ask people a question ?

When a Democratic Presidential candidate  is running for his life in Massachusetts (where Bill Clinton twice got his largest margin of victory in all 50 states agains the GOP ),

What do you think will be the Electoral state by state outcome on election night ????

Obama core fans will never admit this.

But this will be a VERY UGLY night for Democrats on November 4.

As MA goes GOP, the rest is history.

Obama would NOT even know what or where to defend.

He is doing badly in All the Large states. Blue, Red &  Purple.

This will be a hard hard lesson for the liberal base of our party in November.

Deval Patrick, you're in trouble. Many MA dems are predicting a one term Patrick.

by libdemusa 2008-04-17 02:49PM | 0 recs
read again

While she still lags slightly behind Barry

by kindthoughts 2008-04-17 04:11PM | 0 recs
Just for honesty's sake

What are Hillary's negatives?  If she ranks below BO in polls on trustworthiness and electability among Democrats, and has less delegates and less popular vote, what makes you think she'd compete better in the GE. Just because you say so?

by mikeinsf 2008-04-17 04:38PM | 0 recs
Without comparing previous numbers,

you cannot demonstrate any trend.  Hence, your title is dishonest.

Also, I wouldn't call her "Hill"; she's "Senator Clinton."  Senator Obama hasn't used the nickname "Barry" since High School, so drop it.

by McNasty 2008-04-17 02:50PM | 0 recs
Re: new round of SUSA polls--Obama losing edge

Okay let's not exaggerate here. There are plenty of polls in SUSA's set of polls today in which he is stronger than she is (Oregon, Wisconsin...).

by LeftistAddiction 2008-04-17 02:50PM | 0 recs
I have yet to hear how Obama will make up

for losing Ohio, Florida, and potentially PA. (and if he loses MASS?) It seems to me, Clinton has got a much more certain lock on E.V victory than Obama...

by rigsoHC 2008-04-17 02:51PM | 0 recs
Re: I have yet to hear how Obama will make up

Settle down.  The Democrats will unite behind a candidate and do fine in November.

by RussTC3 2008-04-17 02:55PM | 0 recs
Re: I have yet to hear how Obama will make up

Also, it's basically a wash in terms of Obama/McCaina and Clinton/McCain.  

"Overall, Obama gained ground in 7 of the 15 states we polled, lost ground in six, and remained steady in two; Clinton gained ground in 5 states, lost ground in 8, and remained steady in 2."

by RussTC3 2008-04-17 02:56PM | 0 recs
its about the importance of those states

Obama consistently losing in OH/FL, even before more deep rooted divisions in dem party. we will, see, but I think Clinton has a more solid lock on E.V victory

by rigsoHC 2008-04-17 03:08PM | 0 recs
Re: new round of SUSA polls--Obama losing edge

"Democrats will unite behind a candidate and do fine in November."

Too many folks keep saying that, but it's like whistling in a graveyard. This election is different, it isn't between two party white guys, it's between two candidates who deeply inspire their supporters, and the feelings on both sides have solidified. No one will be rolling over and playing dead for the other side. There will be two Democratic Parties soon, because we have two groups who suddenly feel empowered like never before, and no one will be giving up.

Obama is unelectable, and we know it. I don't find him acceptable as a candidate, and will not regard his nomination as legitimate unless the votes from MI and FL are counted. Obama prevented a revote (don't deny it, it is his hand stopping it), so all that remains is to count the votes as they are. I won't vote for a stolen nomination outcome, no way. Period, end of subject.

Don't bother arguing, only counting the votes will sway me and countless others. Count the votes or kiss our votes away permanently. This isn't a third world country where elections are fixed to favor one candidate. We won't put up with it, and we won't quietly go along. This nomination was fixed to deny Clinton those delegates and votes, and we won't forget it.

by 07rescue 2008-04-17 03:07PM | 0 recs
Re: new round of SUSA polls--Obama losing edge

Florida and Michgan's Democratic leadership is at fault for the primary mess.  Clinton didn't even make an issue of it before late January.  She also said that the Michgan vote woudn't count for anything.  Your complaints are disengenous.  

Also, recent polling in Miching shows that Obama polls better than CLinton against McCain, FWIW.

Thanks for playing!

by NewOaklandDem 2008-04-17 03:13PM | 0 recs
Re: new round of SUSA polls--Obama losing edge

I'll admit that Obama is tacitly denying a re-vote in FL and MI if you admit that Clinton is only arguing for FL and MI because she needs the delegates/popular vote and would not be fighting for a re-vote if rolls were reversed.  

by reggie23 2008-04-17 03:21PM | 0 recs
Re: new round of SUSA polls--Obama losing edge

If that's how you feel, I'm really saddened.  I basically have come to hate Clinton because of her out-of-touch form of politics, but I'm not a f'n idiot.  I'm not going to vote for McCain in the general.

And you know what, I'm a Democrat.  That's really not that hard a pledge to hold.

by RussTC3 2008-04-17 05:49PM | 0 recs
Re: new round of SUSA polls--Obama losing edge

Who gives a shit about these stupid hypothetical match ups. Right now McSame is running only against him self, so of course it bodes well for him. 61 % of Americans think we are on the wrong track and Conservatives can't stand Mc Bush.

by venician 2008-04-17 03:09PM | 0 recs
Re: new round of SUSA polls--Obama losing edge

Agreed.  Let's finish this primary first, and worry about the GE after June or when ever.

by NewOaklandDem 2008-04-17 03:10PM | 0 recs
Re: new round of SUSA polls--Obama losing edge

The democratic nominee will get an instant boost as soon as we get one.

by Spanky 2008-04-17 03:21PM | 0 recs
Re: new round of SUSA polls--Obama losing edge

It's worth noting that the main reason both Democrats do badly is because they get poor numbers among Democrats. If you make that number jump for both about 10% (which I think we AT LEAST can count on), you get a much better outlook.

by vcalzone 2008-04-17 04:27PM | 0 recs
Re: new round of SUSA polls--Obama losing edge

LOL at least he wins New York now.

by Skaje 2008-04-17 03:30PM | 0 recs
Re: new round of SUSA polls--Obama losing edge

Well this is good news, but will have to see what the Supers do after June 7. I do believe that Hillary will win big in Pa, by at least the 10 but possibly even more. That being said, it will be a great night for her and will keep her momentum going. I think the NC primary is much closer than most polls are showing. SUSA had it within 10 points which sounds reasonable. Indiana looks like a winner for her, she has been ahead in virtually every poll taken so far there, except for that ridiculous LA poll, which was the first time they had actually polled there, so that one doesn't count for much. I think she is doing a great job of hanging in there, despite a mostly biased media and the cry baby tactics of Obama and his followers.

by steve468 2008-04-17 03:43PM | 0 recs
she will crash him in PA by 20+

And in Indiana by 12+. NC is hard to win, because Obama is playing the race card - what else he has now? KY & WV looks like 30+ win for Hillary

by engels 2008-04-17 05:41PM | 0 recs


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