Gallup--C 47, O 42, Huckabee moves up

The latest Gallup tracking shows Hillary improving slightly, as Obama levels off.  I believe this has something to do with Hillary's continuing popularity with the Democratic base, and I think Obama's appeal is rather limited, as well as less committed.

On the GOP side, McCain dropped 4% to 41%, while Huckabee is up 4%, to 21%.  That puts him 3% behind Romney.  Perhaps Huck can snatch Missouri or Georgia from McCain (wishful thinking).

I think Hillary is going to do better than expected, and I think her delegate lead will be around 150, up from my previopus prediction of 75-80.  Any thoughts?

Tags: Barack Obama, Gallup Poll, Hillary Clinton, Mike Huckabee (all tags)

Comments

6 Comments

Something big is happening - Gallup and Ras agree!

In the last day of polling before NH, something changed - and the pollster did not notice until it was too late. Rasmussen, for instance, had the race dead even on the final day, but the mechanics of the tracking poll hid the effect.

Rasmussen and Gallup, though, both have a huge movement in yesterday's national polling: Hillary is way up, and Barack is way down. The sample individual sample sizes are on the small side, but they both have Barack nailed around the 35% mark - Hillary's number is volatile.

Rasmussen: 47-35
Gallup: 55-34

Average: 51-35

The underlying data since 25 Jan:

Gallup    Polling             Tracker    
    HRC    BO         HRC      BO

25-Jan    47    32           
26-Jan    43    32           
27-Jan    41    34         44      33
28-Jan    45    36         43      34
29-Jan    40    38         42      36
30-Jan    43    43         43      39
31-Jan    45    42         43      41
01-Feb    56    37         48      41
02-Feb    37    53         46      44
03-Feb    48    40         47      43
04-Feb    55    34         47      42

Ras    Polling             Tracker    
    HRC    BO         HRC      BO

25-Jan    40    30           
26-Jan    40    32           
27-Jan    40    31         40      31
28-Jan    42    33         41      32
29-Jan    40    32         41      32
30-Jan    44    41         42      35
31-Jan    46    37         43      37
01-Feb    45    34         45      37
02-Feb    56    43         49      38
03-Feb    38    43         46      40
04-Feb    47    35         47      40

Average    Polling             Tracker    
    HRC    BO         HRC      BO

25-Jan     44      31            
26-Jan     42      32            
27-Jan     41      33          42      32
28-Jan     44      35          42      33
29-Jan     40      35          41      34
30-Jan     44      42          42      37
31-Jan     46      40          43      39
01-Feb     51      36          47      39
02-Feb     47      48          48      41
03-Feb     43      42          47      42
04-Feb     51      35          47      41

by Nordicus 2008-02-05 08:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Something big is happening - Gallup and Ras ag

Wow! I love the analysis, awesome, thank you.

by kristoph 2008-02-05 08:09AM | 0 recs
Re: Something big is happening - Gallup and Ras ag

I wish I could believe this... but one-day polls are just so inaccurate. Still, better this than the opposite.

by OrangeFur 2008-02-05 10:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Gallup--C 47, O 42, Huckabee moves up

If these numbers hold up, and say she is up 150 delegates I wonder how the Obama camp will spin this. Also I agree with you that Obama is running out of left leaning Dems. In order for him to grow he has to start picking off Hillary supporters. I dont see it.

by Safe at Home 2008-02-05 08:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Gallup--C 47, O 42, Huckabee moves up

They'll call Bill Clinton a racist.

by steveinohio 2008-02-05 09:59AM | 0 recs
Re: Gallup--C 47, O 42, Huckabee moves up

Well it, put together with Ramussen, hopefully suggests some late momentum for Hillary. I'll believe the results when they come in. Polls are a morale booster, but this season they have not been totally trustworthy.

by Christopher Lib 2008-02-05 08:25AM | 0 recs

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