• comment on a post Civil War in the Republican Party over 7 years ago

    Looking at the Dem pick ups, we didn't really take over too many seats that were held by  ultra-evangelicals. Most of our flip wins were in either open or incumbent seats being vacated by a relatively moderate Republicans (as compared to Dobson anyway), or they were in red seats that were heavily scandal-tainted. And unfortunately, even the scandal losers were for the most part not hard evangelicals nutcases either.

    There werent that many flip seats that we won over really hard evangelicals. Hostetler certainly, but most of the other Repubs seats we flipped werent known for being all that super evangelical.

    On the other side, what's worse is that of the 13 or so open Republican seats that stayed Republican, there was a definite evangelical tilt to their replacements. We could argue over how nutty the retiring Republicans were, but there's probably not too much arguing over the nuttiness of their freshman replacements like Lamborn, Sali, Walberg, Bachman, Smith, Jordan, and others.

    Yeah we picked up 29 or so Republican seats, but from the evangelical point of view; very few of them were 'evangelically pure' in their eyes anyway. It's possible some evangelicals were even glad to see some of those Republican moderates lose. And I would bet that evangelicals consider  where Republican did win open Republican seats, that they actually gained a couple nutcases on balance. Evangelicals might consider the overall election at worst a wash, if not a slight gain maybe.

    It may turn out that the Republican side of the house became even more evangelical despite the overall Republican numbers getting lower.    

  • comment on a post NRCC, NRSC Target / Defense Lists over 7 years ago

    They think Lewis is vulnerable? We dont even show that race as top tier. Apparantly the Repubs have some concern about him though. Time to make that one yet another Republican self-fulfilling  prophecy of doom. Go Weaver! The playing field continues to expand even in these last two weeks.

    (Also love their comment about Count Chocula on the right "not listening"!) Wonder who he pissed off at the NRCC?

  • comment on a post 425 congressional races filled as we shoot for 430+! over 8 years ago

    Where in the hell can we find out who filed in Colorado? I thought the deadline was 5/25 but I haven't seen anything anywhere about who actually filed. I know we have had all the Dem seats covered for a long time, but I'm curious what Repugs ended up filing. Any data on the bad guys in CO?

  • I count 29 'no-challenge's by Repubs on seats with filings already closed. It's impossible to pinpoint exactly where they'll end up, but I dont see any Republican candidates (yet) for at least another 30 seats. They could easily end up not filing for 50 if not more seats. It's remarkable that we aren't hearing anything at all about how utterly disastrous their recruiting has been so far this cycle. They are 100% focused on a desperate defense this time around.

  • comment on a post What's wrong with CA-42? *** Call to Action*** over 8 years ago

    VA-07 may be going south on us too... http://www.raisingkaine.com/showDiary.do ?diaryId=2431

  • on a comment on 419 over 8 years ago

    It looks like that one wont be filled. Per district Dem insiders; there's no one on the horizon, and the nominating convention has now been cancelled. Not sure what's going on in VA-06.

  • comment on a post CA-44: Vandenberg's in. over 8 years ago

    Bastards! Did you catch the Watson seat filer's name?

    I gotta give those red sonsabitches credit for filing for 31-32 gerrymandered blue seats in today's  political environment.  

  • comment on a post Continuing to Push for 434 over 8 years ago

    Should read OK-01 and OK-04 I think. OK-03 does have a challenger, OK-04 is lacking.

  • comment on a post February Senate Forecast over 8 years ago

    I wonder if Byrd's opponent can get a little closer by election? Byrd will win, but his opponent does have a ton of cash and Byrd is pretty old. Nahhh.

  • Lewis has been at it for 28 years. It's time for him to ride off into the smog filled San Berdoo sunset. His challenger is a rookie, but he is also a hispanic. I dont know how hispanic the inland empire is percentage-wise now, but it's been trending that way for decades and its very hispanic now. Finally, old Jerry is under heavy siege with corruption as well. He has seen many stories come out in the last couple months detailing corruption links. He knows damn well Congress could flip this year and he may lose his committee. Now would be a damn good time for Jerry to retire.

  • comment on a post The Hackett-Brown System over 8 years ago

  • comment on a post First Comprehensive 2006 House Forecast, Part I over 8 years ago

    NE01 Fortenberry. I understand it to be a pretty red CD. But Moul's an ex-Lt Governor, one would think she might have a machine in place. Fortenberry's a freshman who underperformed Bush last time out. Does Moul have a chance here?

  • LA06 Jefferson - Indictment looming? It's probably just a matter of 'when', not 'if'. Not sure how or if we'll have a back up in place. I cant even find a Republican running, but it's early for Lousiana whose filing isnt until August. But indictment's not good.

    SC05 Spratt - A tough district with a credible R challenger. He should pull through, but it may be closer than expected.  

  • Totally agree jk. I dislike Lieberman for his support of Bush's Iraq policy as much as the next guy. But frankly, were in a war here. We need to take out the Republican majority above all else. Period. Every single dollar spent has got to be spent to save our country from these idiots. Anyone who wants to wind down the Iraq war needs to help change our Congress, not worry about one Dem senator that supports it.

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