IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

Prediction based on last RCP poll average and the recent trend of undecideds going about 3-1 Clinton.

IND

Clinton 49(RCP average) + 5(share of undecided) = 54
Obama 44 (RCP average) + 2 (share of undecided) = 46

NC

Clinton 42(RCP average) + 6(share of undecided) = 48
Obama 50 (RCP average) + 2 (share of undecided) = 52

www.realclearpolitics.com

Tags: Indiana, North Carolina, prediction (all tags)

Comments

31 Comments

My IN, NC predictions will be out Wednesday

And I tend to be pretty accurate!

by catfish1 2008-05-06 10:45AM | 0 recs
Re: My IN, NC predictions will be out Wednesday

I'll never bet with you. ;)

by Michael Begala 2008-05-06 10:47AM | 0 recs
Re: My IN, NC predictions will be out Wednesday

When I make prediction on Wednesdays after a primary, I break it down by race/ethnicity, age, gender, and religion.  My daring is boundless under that scenario.

by Beltway Dem 2008-05-06 10:48AM | 0 recs
I'm not THAT crazy!

You're an extreme adventurous type.

by catfish1 2008-05-06 10:57AM | 0 recs
So You Are Accurate?

What does your prediction say what the percentage break down will be between Andrew Jackson and John Quincy Adams in Delaware in the 1828 presidential general election.

(No looking on the internet - just make the prediction)

by Zzyzzy 2008-05-06 11:30AM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

NC could be even closer. Indiana could be double digit for Clinton

by steve468 2008-05-06 10:48AM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

And I could be Wilson Pickett.

by vermontprog 2008-05-06 12:19PM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

You're making an error, in my opinion.

Undecided voters tend to break according to whatever the natural demographics dictate.  It will be Obama, not Hillary, picking up the undecided margin in North Carolina, I suspect.  Indiana, which favors Obama in many ways, may go 50/50 with late deciders - we'll see.

If the results turn out to be what your RCP method predicts, there will be a substantial superdelegate reaction in Clinton's favor.  But, as I say, I think your numbers favor Clinton by far too much.

by bobbank 2008-05-06 10:51AM | 0 recs
yep

i agree

by sepulvedaj3 2008-05-06 10:53AM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

Good point.

dg

by giusd 2008-05-06 10:57AM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

I don't think those numbers would make any difference for superdelegates. They are expecting a split.

by politicsmatters 2008-05-06 10:59AM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

A Clinton vote of 48% in NC would be seen as a real positive for here.  Obama would still win, but he was expected to win by a lot more.

No matter what happens, both campaigns and many bloggers will be spinning like tops.

And Daily Kos front pagers will ask Clinton to drop out, again.

by TomP 2008-05-06 10:55AM | 0 recs
Is it to late to take back

what I said about Edwards?

I bet it is.

by pinche tejano 2008-05-06 10:58AM | 0 recs
Bart Simpson: will you drop out? No.

Will you drop out now? No. We need to get this on a loop.

You just won TX and OH. Now will you drop out? No.

by catfish1 2008-05-06 10:59AM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

I wonder how much of Clinton's IN support will come from Operation Chaos.  Today Rush Limbaugh was chortling about getting people to hold their noses to vote for Clinton to sow problems in our party.

Listen to him here: http://i.timeinc.net/time/2008/thepage/L imbaugh_050608.mp3

And, no, this is not like encouraging Republicans who like a Democratic candidate to vote for him or her.  These folks most certainly don't like Clinton but are voting for her to undermine Democrats' chances.

by politicsmatters 2008-05-06 10:58AM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

well, I have always thought that only registered democrats should be able to vote in the Democratic primary.

others disagree.  You get the good with the bad.  I am not happy with Obama's "Democrat for Day" and he was the ONE that promoted that gem

by colebiancardi 2008-05-06 11:07AM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

Cite?  I've never heard of him saying this, I'd heard a precinct captain put it in an email.  

by bosdcla14 2008-05-06 11:16AM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

oh COME on now. He had flyers printed, even ran TV ads Dem for a Day in multiple primaries. you're an obama supporter and don't know that? or are you just being facitious?

by swissffun 2008-05-06 11:48AM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

I'll say it again: cite?  

I haven't heard it, and just googled both "Obama flyer Democrat for a day" and "Obama TV ads Democrat for a day" and didn't get any results which support your claims.

After more googling, I finally found a Talkleft post that supports my understanding that it was a precinct captain.  Marsh (linked to by TL) claims there was a second precinct captain who did the same thing, but her link leads nowhere.  

http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/1/14/ 145143/927

Youtube doesn't seem to have any relevant results either, so its weird that all these TV ads ran but I can't find them there.  

Tell you what: you find an Obama tv commercial in which he urges voters to become Democrats for a day and vote for him, and I'll donate either $5 to Hillary Clinton or $100 to a progressive cause of your choice (no, the progressive cause cannot be "Hillary Clinton for President").

And the actual video's required.  Claims from TL, TM, No Quarter, etc, don't cut it.  

And if your response is something along the lines of "well, I'm not going to do your research for you," I'll take that as an admission that you're not going to bother wasting your time looking for things that don't exist.  

by bosdcla14 2008-05-06 03:33PM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

"I have always thought that only registered democrats should be able to vote in the Democratic primary."

That would prevent the Rush Limbaugh listeners from voting for Hillary.

by fugazi 2008-05-06 12:26PM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

Rush's Operation Chaos has far more of an impact than most folks would like to assume, I think. You can't go by exit polls, because those guys wouldn't do exit polls, and if they did, they'd probably just lie. Except, of course, when asking who they thought whether their candidate would make a good President.

by vcalzone 2008-05-06 11:21AM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

What amuses me is constantly seeing answers that indicate the person voting has disdain for their candidate, and everyone seems to pretend that they have no idea what that could possibly mean.

by vcalzone 2008-05-06 11:28AM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48
again the drop out thing?
not again.
even if she loses both contests today which is unlikely, her best states are yet to come.
give me a break please!
by darlene25 2008-05-06 11:01AM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

There are seven primaries left.  None of which has more than 60 delegates up for grabs.  How are these her best states?

by Blue Neponset 2008-05-06 11:06AM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

They're the only states that count.  Except Oregon and South Dakota.  :)

by bosdcla14 2008-05-06 11:17AM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

I'm actually surprised that the Clinton folk all of sudden believe that Indiana is an important state.  I could have sworn they said earlier in the primary season that these states don't matter because they won't turn Blue.

by RussTC3 2008-05-06 11:39AM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

I can't even keep up anymore.  It really is "if you voted for Hillary, you count, if you don't, you don't."

by bosdcla14 2008-05-06 11:52AM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

I predict that the winner of Indiana, and NC will be the winner of Indiana and NC.  I am also pretty good with my predictions.  LOL.

by Spanky 2008-05-06 11:18AM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

I absolutely agree 100%...the most intelligent comment I've read today.......mojo'd

by feliks 2008-05-06 11:41AM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

IN: 53-47 Clinton
NC: 56-44 Obama

FTW!

by VAAlex 2008-05-06 11:30AM | 0 recs
Re: IND for Clinton 54-46, NC for Obama 52-48

Meh, those numbers don't look right to me.  I think it's going to be Clinton or Obama by 2-3 points in Indiana and Obama by double digits (14-18) in North Carolina.

At the end of the day, both candidates will get strong support and both candidates will work together to beat McCain in November.

So, whatever.

by RussTC3 2008-05-06 11:36AM | 0 recs

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