• on a comment on Evan Bayh Gets a Challenger over 4 years ago

    Yup, his fund raising has always been awful - which wasn't too much of a problem in IN-08, but for a statewide race, he's begging for trouble.

    He's a purist, as far as I can tell. He voted against his party when they weren't being, in his mind, conservative. This included voting against the war in Iraq. However, as I recall, he also tried to do things like defund the U.S. Marshall's office to the extent necessary to prevent enforcement of federal court orders to remove the Ten Commandments. Or something like that. Ah, here is what I was thinking about.

  • The 7th Circuit decision really had nothing to do with their own substantive analysis of whether the 2nd Amendment should apply to the states. Rather, they simply noted that the Supreme Court has rebuffed previous attempts to apply the Second Amendment to the states.

    Even though these precedential cases were from the late 1800s and even if the rationale from the recent Heller case or others undermined the previous rationale, the 7th Circuit reasoned that it was up to the Supreme Court -- and not the Court of Appeals -- to reject them. Basically, Judge Easterbrook was saying that only the Supreme Court can overrule direct Supreme Court precedent.

    Some analysis and discussion at my blog if anyone is interested.  

  • comment on a post Iowa now the best bellwether state over 5 years ago

    I'd guess it has some relation to Iowa's role in the primary. Whether it's just that more Iowans are paying better attention or something else, I don't know.

  • comment on a post Those Other Pesky Senate Races over 5 years ago

    I felt some let down because my expectations were very high, but when you get down to it, this was a pretty impressive race for the Democrats, particularly when you factor in 2006 -- a lot of the low hanging fruit was already gone.

    Now we're back to pre-1994 levels, and the Dixiecrats have pretty much finished their migration to the GOP.

    So, there's definitely reason for optimism.  

  • comment on a post Poll Closing Times over 5 years ago

    Just a note on Indiana - polls are open in the state until 6 p.m. However, for the portions of the state that are in the Central Time Zone, this means 6 p.m. Central Standard Time (which is, of course 7 p.m. Eastern Standard Time).

    Just didn't want folks in the eastern time zone part of the state thinking they had until 7 to vote.

  • on a comment on WV Prediction thread over 6 years ago

    This was the first time in 40 years any presidential candidate seriously campaigned in an Indiana primary (or a general election for that matter). I don't think West Virginia has a particular reason to get upset about getting left out of the competition in this year's primary -- particularly since its collective mind appeared to be made up already.

  • I doubt Limbaugh's effect is very great in any event, but I wonder if he could be hurting the GOP in November. If only more rabid Republicans are sticking around to vote in the GOP primaries, it's conceivable that they'd nominate nuttier candidates who wouldn't fare as well in the general elections.

    (Then again, it could be that only the nutjobs are following Limbaugh's advice; thereby having a moderating effect on the GOP in the primaries.)

  • Indianapolis's new Republican mayor probably doesn't have a machine to work with at this point --- he was elected in something of a shocker with few of the state's Republicans giving him much in the way of support against the former popular mayor, Peterson.

    I haven't heard whether Peterson is supporting either candidate in particular, and I guess I don't know how much of his machine is still in place. For a fair chunk of Indy, Andrea Carson's machine was pretty formidable. Andre took over for his mother when she died, and he's supporting Obama. I suppose the same machine is still in place.

    Indy and The Region make up a sizable chunk of the Democratic population of Indiana and probably give Obama a respectable shot in Indiana. Obama's recent pickup of the endorsement of Evansville's popular mayor is especially helpful to him too.

    Counterbalancing that, Hillary has a lot of the same favorable demographics in Indiana as she had in Pennsylvania; though I tend to feel that Indiana's culture is quite a bit different from Pennsylvania culture.

  • Oh dear. And without black voters, Hillary Clinton won't stand a prayer either. Clearly we should all just give up now.

  • Folks spouting this stuff aren't detached observers. They're willing to compare apples to oranges if it gives them a pretext to argue their preferred candidate ought to be the nominee.

  • That's just an inane suggestion.

    Different candidates.
    Different voter pool.

    Why would you think Clinton's performance against Obama among Pennsylvania Democrats would be predictive of Obama's performance among all registered voters against McCain?

  • Which is appropriate, since it was about nothing.

  • If Hillary doesn't win by 100% she won't have met expectations. Clearly a single vote for Obama will mean a catastrophic failure by the Clinton campaign.

    (Just trying to get my feet wet with this expectations game thing.)

  • Early exit polls have been so routinely wrong that they seem useful only to tell us what the results will not be.

  • We really need to ask the Obama campaign about his puppy kicking fetish. The Republicans certainly will.

    My prediction - Clinton by 10.

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