by mecarr, Mon Oct 27, 2008 at 09:34:27 PM EDT
by mecarr, Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 05:01:59 PM EDT
MSNBC has just declared that Obama is the presumptive nominee. He will be the first african-american of a major political party ever in the western world. HE DID IT!!!
by mecarr, Fri May 09, 2008 at 06:27:08 AM EDT
Rasmussen Reports daily presidential tracking poll, showing the race between Obama and Clinton, will soon be discontinued. The Rasmussen website states:
"However, while Senator Clinton has remained close and competitive in every meaningful measure, she is a close second and the race is over. It has become clear that Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee. With this in mind, Rasmussen Reports will soon end our daily tracking of the Democratic race and focus exclusively on the general election competition between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama."
This is not a big deal, but these past few days have been like watching a slow death where big things and little things just start to fail and discontinue, and the reality of the situation begins to set in. I've always been an Obama supporter, but I've also admired Hillary Clinton's stance on the issues. With that said, I do hope that if she continues to fight on that she does it in a positive way, not in a way that would jeopardize Obama's chances in the fall. Comments like she made yesterday, referring to the fact that Obama can't win white people, is futile for her candidacy and damaging to Obama's chances at winning in the fall and should be condemed by Democrats everywhere.
by mecarr, Sun May 04, 2008 at 09:34:42 AM EDT
Could this be the Guam bump? Kidding aside, the race seems to be getting back to their natural position, that is, where Obama leads Clinton.
Gallup Daily: Obama 49%, Clinton 45%McCain leads Obama in general election; Clinton-McCain essentially even
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows Barack Obama is the current choice of 49% of Democratic voters nationwide for the party's presidential nomination, while 45% back Hillary Clinton.
The four percentage point advantage for Obama is not statistically significant, and marks the 11th consecutive day that neither Clinton nor Obama has held a significant lead. Obama held leads throughout much of April, while Clinton has not held a significant lead in Gallup's national tracking polling since mid-March, and at that time for just one day. She has not consistently led since before the Super Tuesday primaries in early February. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)
Obama edged out Clinton in Saturday's Guam caucuses, winning by a mere seven votes of more than 4,500 ballots cast. The much more significant Indiana and North Carolina primaries will take place on Tuesday.
by mecarr, Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 09:14:48 AM EDT
Despite a previous diary suggesting Clinton leading Obama in the daily tracking poll (what's up with clinton fans and math?) by citing a two-day old poll, Obama has surged to a 7 point lead, well outside the margin of error.
What's been interesting is that any bump in the road Obama has encountered, he seems to always rebound. He rebounded from Wright, bitter comments, and the debate. It's almost like they never happend. Many Clinton supporters make the mistake of immediately declaring any "gaffe" by obama as a "tipping point" or turning point.
While a solid PA win for Clinton will produce a bump for her in the polls, I doubt it will be longlasting.
by mecarr, Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 06:56:59 AM EDT
So I was doing a google news search with the terms "pennsylvania poll" and after sorting the results by date, one of the ones that popped up was a poll showing Clinton ahead by 26% in PA. The website was "Gay Socialites" but the poll it was referring to was Public Policy Polling (PPP). The article was published yesterday. I checked PPP's website out and the newest poll they have was one from several days ago showing a close race. I tried to find other websites that had the same story but there were none I could find. I just find it weird that the website would have blatantly fabricated a poll and linked it to a real polling organization.
by mecarr, Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 07:25:40 PM EDT
Zogby just released the first post-debate poll out of Pennsylvania. In sum, Zogby says "No ground really gained or lost by either candidate after Wednesday's debate. The one day sample had Clinton leading by 4 points." So, Clinton leads Obama 47% to 43%, still within the margin of error. The pre-debate poll had Clinton up by 1%.
by mecarr, Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 05:36:55 AM EDT
Obama picked up a new super delegate from Oklahoma. His Reggie Whitten and he is an add-on super delegate for Oklahoma. He had been a huge Edwards supporter. Mr. Whitten's press release stated:
"I'm from the small town of Seminole, Oklahoma: a city that is predominantly hard-working middle class citizens," Whitten says. "It is important that our next President keep small towns like Seminole in mind when he talks about our economy. I am very sincere in my belief that Senator Obama will do just that."
by mecarr, Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 08:51:00 PM EDT
The poll by Newsmax\Zogby was done between April 15th-16th (Tues & Wed. The only other poll to come out today was from PPP, which showed Obama in the lead. While the two polls that came out most recently show this to be a very close race, I just don't feel it. I think it's HRC ahead by 8-9%.
The article follows below, with a link to it.
UTICA, New York – With just five days left before Democratic primary voters go to polls to decide who they want to be their presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois are locked in a battle that is too close to call, the latest Newsmax/Zogby telephone poll shows. The survey, which was conducted April 15-16, 2008 and came out of the field midway through Wednesday’s contentious debate between the two candidates in Philadelphia, shows Clinton at 45% and Obama at 44%, with 12% either wanting someone else or left undecided. The telephone survey, conducted using live operators working out of Zogby’s on-site call center in Upstate New York, included 601 likely Democratic primary voters in Pennsylvania. It carries a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Clinton leads by a wide margin in western Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh, while Obama leads by a large percentage in eastern Pennsylvania, including Philadelphia. In the central part of the state, including the state capital of Harrisburg, Clinton leads by eight points. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding Pollster John Zogby – “This is not a year for negative campaigning and Clinton’s pounding of Obama on his controversial description of small town voters in Pennsylvania does not seem to be working. Obama leads in the Philadelphia and eastern part of the Commonwealth, among African Americans, and Very Liberal Pennsylvanians. He also has a slight lead among voters in union households and has an 18 point margin over those who have lost a job. Clinton maintains her lead among whites, Catholics, Liberals, and Hispanics. “The gender gap is huge with Obama leading among men by 15 and Clinton leading among women by 15. But Clinton holds a wide advantage on the question of understanding Pennsylvania (58%-27%) and handling the economy of the country (47%-38%). She also is ahead in understanding the personal financial situation of individuals (41%-35%). “On the other hand, Pennsylvanians by a two to one margin (60% to 29%) are more likely to agree with supporters of Obama that voters in Pennsylvania are bitter about their economic situation than with Clinton and critics of Obama that he is an elitist who does not understand working people. “On the key questions of who they would rather have a beer with: Clinton 38%, Obama 39% -- with 15% undecided. A key demographic group that has changed its mind in the last week is Democratic voters age 35 to 54, who just one week ago favored Clinton by a 45% to 40% margin. Now, Obama leads among those voters by a 47% to 41% edge. Clinton leads among voters older than age 54, while Obama leads among the younger set. Among men, Obama holds what has come to be a predictable advantage, leading with 50% support, compared to 35% for Clinton. But Clinton makes up for it among women – also a predictable support group for her – leading by a 53% to 38% margin. Among the very liberal Democratic Party voters, Obama leads, while Clinton leads among mainline liberals. Among moderates, the two are deadlocked, while Clinton has an edge among conservative Democratic voters. Among whites and Hispanics, Clinton holds double-digit leads, while Obama holds a huge lead among African Americans, winning 82% support. Two issues were dominant in the minds of these voters – with the economy far and away the most important to voters in deciding whom to support – 54% said it was at the top of their list. The Iraq war was a distant second, with all other issues winning just a passing notice from the likely voters. Asked which candidate was most likely to improve the respondent’s personal financial situation, Clinton won 41%, compared to 35% who said Obama would be tops. Six percent identified someone else, while 19% said they were unsure. Asked which candidate would be most likely to improve the U.S. economy, Clinton also held an advantage, winning 47% support to 38% who said Obama was most likely. Men favored Obama, while women favored Clinton. http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/Newsmax_poll_hillary/2008/04/16/88622.html http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/Newsmax_poll_hillary/2008/04/16/88622.html
by mecarr, Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 07:01:45 AM EDT
Public Policy Polling (PPP) just came out with a new poll showing Obama leading HRC 45%-42%. It's previous poll that came out a week or two ago showed Hillary winning 46%-43%. Admittedly, this is the only poll showing Obama leading PA. However, what's perhaps more important is that it is one of many other polls showing that the bitter comment did not hurt Obama, and may have even helped him a bit. I think we can start concluding that the "bitter" comment never was a big deal to most Dems and that perhaps HRC overplayed her hand. This cannot be the news HRC wanted to hear.