Newsweek poll: Hillary's deficit with white voters

Oh, look: guess what, Hillary Clinton loses the white vote to John McCain in the latest Newsweek poll. By ten points.

I know, shocking, after all the play-pretend effort with guns, shot glasses, bowling balls and other implements utterly foreign to a Georgetown aristocrat with a nine-figure bank balance.

Well, actually, it's not shocking: Democrats tend not to win a majority of the white vote. Neither Kerry, Gore, Clinton or Dukakis got it.

A little bit more on the subject below the fold, before we proceed to fruitful demagoguery in the comments section. >>>

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"Clinton Supporters: The Global Warming Deniers of Democratic Politics?"

As the listing becomes more noticeable and waves begin to wash over the lower decks, a chilling realization is dawning on passengers and crew of the SS Hillary Rodham Clinton: that the iceberg wasn't some passing irritation but a lethal wound, and that their great ship is foundering in the unmarked darkness of the seas.

Something curious is going on, however. As the first-class passengers head for the lifeboats, deep in the bowels of the ship, someone is rat-tat-tatting on the Morse machine that everything is fine, even as icy water gurgles under the door.

Cenk Uygur takes a look, and diagnoses Hillary Clinton Supporters -- The Global Warming Deniers of Democratic Politics?

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Charlie Cook: "Even in victory, she isn't getting any closer"

Amidst the frenzied flurry of Clintonista talking points filling the air like confetti at a ticker tape parade, the voices of reason are having a harder time getting heard.

One such voice is political analyst Charlie Cook.

If this contest were still at the point where momentum, symbolism, and reading tea leaves mattered, Clinton would be in pretty good shape. Everything she has needed to happen is happening now. Obama is getting tougher press coverage and critical examination. He's also getting rattled a bit, and he didn't perform well in the recent debate in Philadelphia. Clinton is winning in big, important places, but it's happening about three months too late.

Cook proceeds to pour some cold water on frenzied goalpost-moving Clintonites trying to change the rules of the contest. >>>

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North Carolina: Republicans for Clinton

The New York Times:

Yet Mr. Obama also faces challenges ahead: According to Republican Party officials, party members in North Carolina -- which holds its primary on May 6 -- are considering running an advertisement against Mr. Obama that highlights his ties to controversial figures like his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr. That ad could have the effect of adding a racially divisive element to that Southern state's primary.

Hmmm. Is this perhaps a clue against whom the other side would prefer to run? Republicans don't tend to do favors for Democrats they fear, as the last few decades have shown to satisfaction.

Or maybe, haha, Hillary is just rather adept at uniting people around her other than in determined opposition. >>>

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"If I'm the president we will attack Iran"

From Daily Kos via ABC News comes something truly disturbing.

Clinton further displayed tough talk in an interview airing on Good Morning America Tuesday, ABC News' Chris Cuomo asked Clinton what she would do if Iran attacked Israel with nuclear weapons.

"I want the Iranians to know that if I'm the president we will attack Iran," Clinton said."In the next ten years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them."

Good sweet Jesus, somebody please cut her mike. >>>

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The Spiral of Hate

The Spiral of Silence is a theory from the communications sciences, first articulated by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann, useful in understanding the polarization between supporters of the two remaining liberal Democratic Senators running for our party's nomination.

Briefly, the Spiral of Silence theory holds the following:

The phrase "spiral of silence" actually refers to how people tend to remain silent when they feel that their views are in the minority. The model is based on three premises: 1) people have a "quasi-statistical organ," a sixth-sense if you will, which allows them to know the prevailing public opinion, even without access to polls, 2) people have a fear of isolation and know what behaviors will increase their likelihood of being socially isolated, and 3) people are reticent to express their minority views, primarily out of fear of being isolated.

The closer a person believes the opinion held is similar to the prevailing public opinion, the more they are willing to openly disclose that opinion in public. Then, if public sentiment changes, the person will recognize that the opinion is less in favor and will be less willing to express that opinion publicly. As the perceived distance between public opinion and a person's personal opinion grows, the more unlikely the person is to express their opinion.

What we're seeing presently playing out on blogs, and there arguably more harshly on those few blogs that support Senator Clinton, is a further elaboration of Noelle-Neumann's theory.

I call it the Spiral of Hate. >>>

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Philadelphia Daily News goes for Obama

Chalk up another key newspaper endorsement: The Philadelphia Daily News goes with Obama.

THE CHOICE in Tuesday's Democratic presidential primary is not only the one between a white woman and a black man. It's a choice between the past and the future.

More specifically, the nation must decide how to face the future racing toward us in the form of slumping home sales, unstable financial markets and increased joblessness - and staring at us from the Green Zone in Iraq and the beds at veterans hospitals.

Should Democrats choose someone who will employ hard-won - even bitter - experiences gained in a past Democratic administration, or reach beyond political truisms toward a new (and untried) model of governing?

Neither choice is obvious. Perhaps that's why the race has gone on for so long.

But the long slog through 44 primaries and caucuses has confirmed for us that Sen. Barack Obama's vision of change - and the way he plans to pursue it - is what we need right now. Badly.

What's interesting is why. More >>>

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Bruce Springsteen, hateful, misogynist, elitist Judas

Via The Great Orange Satan, Bruce Springsteen has endorsed Barack Obama for President.

Dear Friends and Fans:

LIke most of you, I've been following the campaign and I have now seen and heard enough to know where I stand. Senator Obama, in my view, is head and shoulders above the rest.

He has the depth, the reflectiveness, and the resilience to be our next President. He speaks to the America I've envisioned in my music for the past 35 years, a generous nation with a citizenry willing to tackle nuanced and complex problems, a country that's interested in its collective destiny and in the potential of its gathered spirit. A place where "...nobody crowds you, and nobody goes it alone."

At the moment, critics have tried to diminish Senator Obama through the exaggeration of certain of his comments and relationships. While these matters are worthy of some discussion, they have been ripped out of the context and fabric of the man's life and vision, so well described in his excellent book, Dreams of My Father, often in order to distract us from discussing the real issues: war and peace, the fight for economic and racial justice, reaffirming our Constitution, and the protection and enhancement of our environment.

After the terrible damage done over the past eight years, a great American reclamation project needs to be undertaken. I believe that Senator Obama is the best candidate to lead that project and to lead us into the 21st Century with a renewed sense of moral purpose and of ourselves as Americans.

Over here on E Street, we're proud to support Obama for President.

Bruce Springsteen

Clearly, Bruce Springsteen hates America and doesn't understand politics.

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Gallup Daily: Obama by 11

Short and sweet:

Barack Obama is maintaining his lead over Hillary Clinton among Democrats nationally in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking, with a 51% to 40% margin in the April 12-14 average.

The current 11 percentage point lead is the largest for Obama this year, and marks the ninth consecutive day in which Obama has led Clinton by a statistically significant margin. The current Gallup Poll Daily tracking average is based on interviewing conducted Saturday, Sunday and Monday -- after the initial reports of Obama's controversial remarks about "bitter" small-town residents began to be reported in the news media.

The two candidates will hold a nationally televised debate in Philadelphia on Wednesday night, and it is possible that this confrontation -- plus any delayed impact of Obama's controversial remarks -- may affect Democratic voters' perceptions in the days to come. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)

In general election trial heat match ups, both Democratic candidates now have identical, and slight, 46% to 44% margins over presumptive Republican nominee John McCain.

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Some notes on Pennsylvania

"My poll is better than your poll".

"No, you loser, everyone knows that the poll you're citing is conducted by having rodents run in a maze."

"Oh yeah? Well, you're a poopiehead!"

Such is the state of discussion about polls in the Pennsylvania primary, and, by and large, the primary itself.

Some observations. >>>

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Diaries

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