Gallup Daily: Obama by 11

Short and sweet:

Barack Obama is maintaining his lead over Hillary Clinton among Democrats nationally in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking, with a 51% to 40% margin in the April 12-14 average.

The current 11 percentage point lead is the largest for Obama this year, and marks the ninth consecutive day in which Obama has led Clinton by a statistically significant margin. The current Gallup Poll Daily tracking average is based on interviewing conducted Saturday, Sunday and Monday -- after the initial reports of Obama's controversial remarks about "bitter" small-town residents began to be reported in the news media.

The two candidates will hold a nationally televised debate in Philadelphia on Wednesday night, and it is possible that this confrontation -- plus any delayed impact of Obama's controversial remarks -- may affect Democratic voters' perceptions in the days to come. (To view the complete trend since Jan. 3, 2008, click here.)

In general election trial heat match ups, both Democratic candidates now have identical, and slight, 46% to 44% margins over presumptive Republican nominee John McCain.

So, contrary to what you may have read here and elsewhere, "Bittergate" was not the silver bullet campaign-slayer.

That funny sound you're hearing right now? That's Mark Penn tearing out what little remains of his hair.

Nor did it affect Obama's chances in the general. In fact, fellow Democrats, we should be embracing with deep love for one another, given that both our candidates beat that other guy, whatever his name is.

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton (all tags)




Because Democrats are awesome.

by MBNYC 2008-04-15 09:27AM | 0 recs
Re: Tips

I actually watch the Gallup daily and try to ferret out the likely daily numbers that comprise it so I can get a feel if a bump is a real bump or a correction from one weird day.

Best I can guess (and mind you, these numbers are all subject to being wildly wrong) Obama's been right on the 50-51% number for a solid week now, except for a 47 on Friday.  Today's uptick reveals the removal of the Friday number from the poll.  Clinton's veeeerrrry slowly drifted from the 45% to the 40-41% range over the last two weeks with no weird jumps.

So, this isn't, best I can tell, any real uptick, it's just a level Obama line and a slight downward Clinton line after one weird Obama day falls out.

Interesting that Friday was the one weird day.  That may indicate that the bitter-thing pulled a couple points on the initial news and attack, but after he'd responded and the story was out there (and not much has really changed since then) it just went away (in terms of polling).

Or it was just a one-day blip.

by Rorgg 2008-04-15 09:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Tips

I'm watching to see if Clinton drops below 40.

by politicsmatters 2008-04-15 10:40AM | 0 recs

let keep it a secret. ;)

by kindthoughts 2008-04-15 09:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Gallup Daily: Obama by 11

It's too early to declare anything one way or another. Most polls have shown that in the day or two following his comments, there weren't any huge shifts in opinion. As Chuck Todd has pointed out, it's too early to see if there will be any lasting damage.

I'd posit that the daily polls are kind of useless at this point and have been for the last couple of months. It's basically now a likeability contest.

by VAAlex 2008-04-15 09:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Gallup Daily: Obama by 11

Oh, absolutely. But my point is that if there had been damage of the kind we were told to expect, the impact would already be noticeable. In fact, however, the race remains remarkably stable.

To be honest, that's not what I expected when the story first broke.

One really remarkable data snippet: Gallup notes that both Dems are now ahead of McCain (in contrast to Rasmussen). That argues against what I thought was going to (and perhaps still might) happen, which is some damage to Clinton.

by MBNYC 2008-04-15 09:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Gallup Daily: Obama by 11

I think a lot of it is also the duality of exactly what's going on. I also think there might be a media filter through which these polls might be viewed, and a self-perpetuating cycle which goes like this:

People see Obama win. People read stories of how Obama is ahead. People follow the news. Key word: follow. So they repeat to pollsters what they see: they assume Obama is winning, and report they're for him because that's what it is. Who wants to be on a losing side (except for us who follow this stuff)?

So I think that's part of it. Let's see what happens when Hillary wins Pennsylvania and what that does to these numbers. THAT will be interesting.

But you're right, the Gallup numbers have been pretty stable recently. But that might also be because there have been no actual elections to shake up perceptions.

by VAAlex 2008-04-15 10:07AM | 0 recs
Well, it depends.

If you remember, a week or so ago, there was some chatter that Obama might actually win PA because people just want the primary over and done with. That could still benefit him, true enough, but it was not enough to give him a lead.

But I'm skeptical that coverage of Obama winning alone would make a win, either in PA or overall, more likely. My degree is in communications, so I tend to be skeptical of the decision-forming power of media. The same assumption goes for a likely Clinton win in PA; that alone won't change the narrative or, more precisely, voting patterns.

If you take a look at the MSNBC banner floating off to the side, or just go here, Charlie Cook has an interesting take on the whole episode. You probably won't agree with his conclusions, but I find him well worth listening to, usually.

by MBNYC 2008-04-15 10:18AM | 0 recs
Re: Well, it depends.

Since you're the one with the degree in comm. I'll defer to you in that, but I've always been struck by the ability of the media to shape a narrative and stick with it. I mean, let's face it, they are a profit-driven business and as such has an inherent conflict of interest unique to the industry: as much as they may want to objectively report the news, there is always going to be some drive to make a story 'sexy' or 'racehorse' to get more viewers tuned and some papers sold.

I agree Charlie Cook is usually worth listening to, but as you might have guessed I don't agree with his conclusions.

by VAAlex 2008-04-15 11:16AM | 0 recs
Re: Gallup Daily: Obama by 11

You mean Clinton by 11 right?  Obama was doomed by the bitter scandal.  All of those recommended diaries couldn't be wrong, could they?

by thezzyzx 2008-04-15 09:37AM | 0 recs
Re: Gallup Daily: Obama by 11

We can only look at tracking over a period of time, but this bodes well for Obama

by CardBoard 2008-04-15 09:41AM | 0 recs
Re: Gallup Daily: Obama by 11

Telling the truth always bodes well, especially after all the lies of the last eight years.

We do not need another liar in the White House.

by pinche tejano 2008-04-15 09:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Gallup Daily: Obama by 11

My gut is the Obama quote will matter in PA simply because of coverage, but I do think we are seeing the nationally, this has really had no effect on Obama.  If anything, for any vote he lost, he gained one back, etc...

At the end of the day, the thing that I believe will really drive home the campaigns in PA is the debate tommorrow.  Obama will probably make a power play attack on Clinton for her TV commercial, and Clinton will have to defend her position.  I don't know who will win that battle, but Clinton has tended to have a debate edge thus far.

My bet is Obama wraps his words around the need for change in Washington, and Clinton tried to wrap Obama's words as the type of thing that will loose Middle America.  I don't think any of this is groundbreaking though, so I'll stop talking :)

by njc2b5 2008-04-15 10:02AM | 0 recs
just as with the whole Wright issue, a Gallup daily tracking poll of a democratic primary tells us absolutely zero- zilch - nadda about how these issues will play with the general electorate.
by linc 2008-04-15 10:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Unfortunately

All that matters is if it turns any kerry voters to McCain.

I don't think it will.. .all kerry voters will vote for obama and he'll win due to new voter turnout and increased dem entusiasm

by CaptMorgan 2008-04-15 12:01PM | 0 recs


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