Bush at 36%!!!!

Finally, the floor breaks--Chris

The American Research Group has a new poll out today that puts President Bush's approval rating at 36% to 58% disapprove.  This is a very unpopular president.  I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Democrats took back one or both houses of Congress next November if this keeps up.  We had thought that his base was 40%, but that has been broken.  This is a very unpopular President.  Too bad this didn't happen a year ago.

Update (Chris): Here is the partisan breakdown:

Among Republicans (35% of adults registered to vote in the survey), 77% approve of the way Bush is handling his job and 18% disapprove. Among Democrats (37% of adults registered to vote in the survey), 15% approve and 81% disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job. Among Independents (28% of adults registered to vote in the survey), 21% approve and 72% disapprove of the way Bush is handling his job as president.
It should also be noted that among registered voters, Bush is at 38-56. That is still below the 40% barrier that at times I have believed we would never break.

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Comments

30 Comments

Tip Jar
N/T.
by Max Friedman 2005-08-22 07:13AM | 0 recs
Use this as a Tip Jar
For people who think "Tip Jars" are dorky.
by NCDem 2005-08-22 07:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Use this as a Tip Jar
Let's see who gets more "tips"... If the beggar gets more tips, then I'll quit pointing out the dorkiness of tip jars and mojo... If I get more, then it's settled... Begging for dorky tips by putting up dorky tip jars so that dorky people can view dorky zeroed-out comments should be encouraged, and I'll S.T.F.U.

I even gave a "tip" to give "dorkiness" an edge.

by NCDem 2005-08-22 07:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Use this as a Tip Jar
(1's count as a tip in this contest...  That's like, a quarter.)
by NCDem 2005-08-22 07:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Use this as a Tip Jar
Be still my mojo heart!  I've got 50 cents!  Dorkiness is winning!
by NCDem 2005-08-22 07:37AM | 0 recs
by my calculations:
Dorky is winning $7
to
"Not Dorky's" $6.25.  

(I'm assigning a monetary tip-value to each rating... 1 = a quarter.  2 = 50 cents 3 = a dollar).  Right now, I could even the playing field by reaching my hand into "Dorky's" tip jar and pull out my dollar and replace it with a quarter... so we're pretty much even at this point....

by NCDem 2005-08-22 10:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Use this as a Tip Jar
Use this as a Tip Jar to see how "dorky" NCDem is for starting stupid flame wars on tip jars.
by Max Friedman 2005-08-23 05:58AM | 0 recs
This is a very unpopular President.
But obviously Bush TOO STRONG AND POWERFUL for Reid to mount an attack on Roberts...<snark>

Let's watch how the Democrats piss away the opportunities...

/This is a very unpopular President.

How much you wanna bet that Democrats will force on the base "Non-Ideological" candidates aka Republican-lite move to the right anti-choicers? Because... just like GW the Democrats must stay the course at turning the party into a corporate brothel.

by Parker 2005-08-22 07:20AM | 0 recs
Democrats
are overrepresented in this poll.

Correct or not?

by NCDem 2005-08-22 07:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Democrats
By two whole percentage points? Not bloody likely. If anything, we're underrepresented after our GOTV drives last year.
by craverguy 2005-08-22 07:31AM | 0 recs
Re: Democrats
37-35 is hardly over-representation. Last year, the eexit polls had it 37-37, but post-election studies like Harris and NAES still have Democrats at a two to three point edge.
by Chris Bowers 2005-08-22 07:32AM | 0 recs
Re: Democrats
Plus, more people may be thinking of themselves as Democrats now.
by Max Friedman 2005-08-22 07:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Democrats
True 'dat.
by NCDem 2005-08-22 07:38AM | 0 recs
Re: Democrats
yeah, I think that is a real possibility also considering how pathetically the GOP has governed so far this term.  Imagine how much of a Party ID advantage we would have if we actually presented the country a credible alternative.
by Jonathan Schwartz 2005-08-22 12:07PM | 0 recs
Re: Democrats
Probably true.  But what's significant is the 77% figure for Republicans.  That's a significant drop in support among them.  That can't be deflected by weighting.  That's huge.
by Jonathan Schwartz 2005-08-22 12:05PM | 0 recs
Re: Still popular among Republicans
Cocnidering that about 98% of Republicans voted for him, his base is definitely eroding.
by craverguy 2005-08-22 07:37AM | 0 recs
Leave No District Behind
This means 2006 could be tidal. But a tidal wave does us no good if we don't have Democrats running everywhere to take advantage of it.

Help us Leave No District Behind.

by blogswarm 2005-08-22 07:51AM | 0 recs
I think this is slightly better than reality
That is, Bush's numbers are probably above 36%.  I believe there are too many Democrats and not enough Republicans and independents in this survey.  The good news is that independents are starting to think like Democrats (only a 6 point difference there in the approval rate).  I suppose it is possible that a lot of indepedents have recently switched to be Democrats, which would be very, very good news indeed.
by Geotpf 2005-08-22 08:01AM | 0 recs
Re: I think this is slightly better than reality
During the election, the partisan split among voters was 37-37. 37-35 in the Democrats' favor is not a big stretch.
by craverguy 2005-08-22 08:03AM | 0 recs
That's good to know
I thought it was worse than that.  I think I mentally subtract some southern pseduo-Democrats (the Dixiecrat type that haven't voted for a Democrat for president since Carter in 1976, but who still self-indentify as Democrats).

In any case, there doesn't seem to be too many of those left, or Bush would be doing better than 15% amoung Democrats.

by Geotpf 2005-08-22 08:16AM | 0 recs
Past presidents and the election
Since 2003 W has been at or above 50% only during November 2004.  Thank you Karl Rove!  Past floors for Presidents way more popular than Bush were lower than 36.  Reagan, for example, bottomed at 35%.  Nixon, the all time low, was at 24% when he resigned.

What's really low about W is his average rating.  It's down in Carter/Truman territory.  W scores a 29 just on his Republican base.  Anything under 30 means that the Red Sea has parted and it is time to leave.

by David Kowalski 2005-08-22 08:01AM | 0 recs
Ah, a popular war time president
Ah, a popular wartime president.

The timing could have been a lot better, but still, this is well deserved.

by Michael Bersin 2005-08-22 08:21AM | 0 recs
The &quot;Conservative&quot; Brand is tapped out
They promised the world when they were out of power:

  1. Balanced Budgets

  2. Lower Taxes

  3. Strong Economy

  4. Ethical Government

  5. Smaller Governemnt

  6. Humbler Foriegn Policy

One out of six ain't good. It's easy to tear down the other party, but can you govern? For Bush, and the entire generation of Baby Boomer "conservatives", the answer is obviously "no". Let's send them to the ash heap of history where they belong.
by Paul Goodman 2005-08-22 08:59AM | 0 recs
36%?
I heard 41-43% last week.  Could it have fallen that quickly?  Could this be true?  If so, it could signal the beginning of the end of this nightmare.  Wow!
by CO Democrat 2005-08-22 09:14AM | 0 recs
Rasmussen says 48% Today
Link:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Bush_Job_Approval.htm

What's kind of interesting, is that "among registered voters" used to consistently poll better for Bush than "all adults".   As Rasmussen says at the bottom of their page:

"During 2004, reports on the President Job Approval were based upon surveys of Likely Voters. Typically, a survey of Likely Voters would report a Job Approval rating 2-3 points higher than a survey of all adults."

I'm interpreting this to mean that their new poll is not restricted to registered voters and that part of the discrepancy between the two polls is that registered voters, who probably track current events more closely as a group, are now tilted more against Bush than the general population.

by LastToKnow 2005-08-22 09:22AM | 0 recs
How exactly does this help the Dems?
Bush is not going to run for so much as dog-catcher ever again. (No doubt there are one or two TX CDs that would let him do a JQA, but I've never got the impression that he was that committed to politics (or anything).)

The only benefit of Bush favs in the toilet could be to taint other GOP pols who are running for something.

A couple of thoughts:

As with Hagel, low Bush favs naturally lead to rats leaving the sinking ship. Bush's capital would run out with the effluxion of time, however great his numbers were now.

Meanwhile, on the Dem side, most of Bush's worst policies - his illegal war first amongst them - have got the support of a substantial number of Dems in Congress.

And Bush's tumbling numbers on Iraq seem to leave most leading Dems caught like rabbits in the headlights, yearning to break free from the adventure they supported, but mortally afraid of being Swift Boated by the VRWC, or outflanked on the right by other Dems choosing to stick with the warhawk line.

I'm more than open to be educated how a focus on Bush's woes (which will naturally exclude other issues from a limited news-hole) will pay dividends for the Dems in 06. Currently, I don't entirely see it.

by johnsmith0903 2005-08-22 09:38AM | 0 recs
This is encouraging, but...
We will need to see other polls show ratings in the 30s to know if this is accurate. Still, our "popular wartime president" is under 50 percent after winning re-election ten months earlier. One of the most shocking things is how in an election year, from the August to November period the Republicans are able to whitewash all of their bad policies, trot out the moderates and minorities, fire up their base at the same time they promise people they won't be as bad as they have been and fool enough people into voting for them so they can win. Then they drop the act and return to their old ways. It's amazing that the Democrats can never manage to take advantage of their disconnect with the concerns of people.
by dole4pineapple 2005-08-22 09:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Still popular among Republicans
Of course, he'll always hold onto a majority of his base.  The strategic worth of this is to zero in on the kind of GOP voters who are leaving him attempt to appeal to them.  Considering how amazingly consolidated the Republican base was last time, 77% is absolutely horrible.  Those voters are vulnerable and probably will stay that way for the next year and a half.  But gaining them for democrats will require some fairly conservative democratic candidates.  And that's assuming they are even likely to show up next election day, which is dubious at best.
by Jonathan Schwartz 2005-08-22 12:01PM | 0 recs
by kan105 2006-05-13 04:44AM | 0 recs
by kan101 2006-07-03 08:00AM | 0 recs

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