by mattw, Thu Jun 05, 2008 at 02:43:35 PM EDT
by mattw, Mon Jun 02, 2008 at 10:41:14 PM EDT
Everyone by now should have come across FiveThirtyEight, "electoral projections done right". Nate Silver, the blogger, is also known as "Poblano" on dKos, and his star has been rising since he started making crushing professional pollsters a regular thing, using his mix of poll mixing, Pollster-Induced-Error measurements, and regression analysis. ARG called it, "stepwise regression run amock", right before Poblano beat ARG's predictions for NC and IN significantly.
Nate Silver is making his debut in the Guardian, and his article talks about the numbers his model shows currently for Clinton and Obama, and why the comparison is apples-to-oranges.
by mattw, Wed Mar 26, 2008 at 09:08:27 AM EDT
Experience has been the watchword of Hillary's campaign. As she fights to explain the Bosnian story, I'm struck by the way that both popular explanations for her behavior are inadequate. Lying is damning, certainly, but seems to strain credulity. Once, perhaps, but Hillary was confronted and only retracted half her story. She's too skilled to not know the second half would come back to bite her. Misstatements? Not three times over the course of over three months.
I propose a third possibility: Hillary has had a decade - and perhaps several decades - with her eye on the prize: she wants to be President. Faced with the need to present a narrative for her selection as a superior candidate, cognitive dissonance has literally changed her memories.
by mattw, Fri Mar 21, 2008 at 07:11:58 PM EDT
Two very odd things occurred to me today. They are unrelated, except in the sense that they both bear on the general election. Forgive me for being a bit far flung, and let's consider two strange possibilities.
First: John McCain chooses Joe Lieberman as a Vice Presidential nominee.
Second: Al Gore pushes a ceasefire on the candidates in a close race, with instructions to go after McCain.
by mattw, Tue Mar 18, 2008 at 07:34:03 PM EDT
Today we saw a powerful speech from the man who would be President. I was struck by how nuanced it was, and how much it reflects life. In a world where politicians paint caricatures of groups and make complex issues black and white to score points, Barack Obama grabbed a paddle and headed into choppy water.
We stand on the precipice as Americans. Every election, we have been told that this election is once in a lifetime; that there is too much as stake in this election to do one thing or another. I have never believed it as I do now. And I have never had so much hope for our nation to change course. I want to talk briefly about the speech, about the humanity of the speech, and the importance of that humanity in Barack Obama, and why that humanity is missing from our politics and our politicians.
by mattw, Mon Mar 17, 2008 at 06:30:22 AM EDT
The Boston Globe is carrying a story about a surge in support for Hillary by Republicans.
Until Texas and Ohio voted on March 4, Obama was receiving far more support than Clinton from GOP voters, many of whom have said in interviews that they were willing to buck their party because they like the Illinois senator.
In Ohio and Texas on March 4, Republicans comprised 9 percent of the Democratic primary electorate, more than twice the average GOP share of the turnout in the earlier contests where exit polling was conducted. Clinton ran about even with Obama among Republicans in both states, a far more favorable showing among GOP voters than in the early races.
by mattw, Wed Mar 12, 2008 at 09:27:16 AM EDT
There are a few disturbing things coming out of the MS exit polls, and they point to Republican interference in primaries and electability issues for Clinton.
by mattw, Fri Mar 07, 2008 at 06:21:40 PM EST
Poblano on dKos has posted how Hillary wins the nomination. (If she does)
While some Obama supporters deny entirely it is possible, and indeed, her taking the lead in pledged delegates borders on impossibility, scenarios arise where she can make up ground in a way sufficient to capture the nomination, whilst simultaneously bolstering the moral argument that superdelegates should endorse her.
One of the most interesting things he has to say: Obama should offer to seat Michigan and Florida now, as is, asking only for the uncommitted MI delegates to be pledged to him.
by mattw, Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 04:02:21 PM EST
Hillary's final margin of victory: 8.9%.
The final delegates will be 203 for Clinton to 167 for Obama.
The certified totals represent a +8 delegate swing for Obama vis a vis the original estimates. See below for a quick rundown.
by mattw, Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 11:34:45 AM EST
At HuffPo, Paul Loeb tackles the results of "NAFTAgate", with a piece: Did Clinton win Ohio in a lie?
It recounts the wildly inaccurate stories about Obama's campaign, the Canadians saying the memo may now be inaccurate, and touches on how this all began with a comment about how the Canadian PM's chief of staff started this all with a comment to the press about how Clinton had reassured them her NAFTA talk was just talk. And, of course, how all this factors into Hillary's win.