Congrats to HRC, and Plouffe Makes the Case

Hillary Clinton has been an incredible challenger.  She has fought a very tough race, and she deserves to be congratulated for her win in Indiana last night.  Fair is fair, a win is a win.  She has indicated her campaign will continue to due all it can to secure the nomination.  I am impressed, and look forward to the coming contests.  I wish her the best.

Barack Obama exceeded all expectations yesterday.  In the face of intense competition from HRC, reincarnation of stale "scandals" that have already been intensely overplayed by the media, and what was supposed to be a strong current of momentum for HRC after PA, Obama rose above it all.

He has shown once again, as he has many times before, that he is the  toughest candidate, he can weather all challenges thrown at him by not one but two challengers, he can out due anyone in history with fund raising, he leads in every metric, and I believe he is going to win the nomination and the presidency.

Campaign manager David Plouffe sent out the following memo to superdelegates, making clear how Obama views the race at this point.

I know many here will disagree with just about every part of it. You have that right.  Flames are cheerfully ignored.

There are only six contests remaining in the Democratic primary calendar and only 217 pledged delegates left to be awarded. Only 7 percent of the pledged delegates remain on the table. There are 260 remaining undeclared superdelegates, for a total of 477 delegates left to be awarded.

With North Carolina and Indiana complete, Barack Obama only needs 172 total delegates to capture the Democratic nomination.  This is only 36% of the total remaining delegates.

Conversely, Senator Clinton needs 326 delegates to reach the Democratic nomination, which represents a startling 68% of the remaining delegates.

With the Clinton path to the nomination getting even narrower, we expect new and wildly creative scenarios to emerge in the coming days. While those scenarios may be entertaining, they are not legitimate and will not be considered legitimate by this campaign or its millions of supporters, volunteers, and donors.

We believe it is exceedingly unlikely Senator Clinton will overtake our lead in the popular vote and in fact lost ground on that measure last night. However, the popular vote is a deeply flawed and illegitimate metric for deciding the nominee - since each campaign based their strategy on the acquisition of delegates. More importantly, the rules of the nomination are predicated on delegates, not popular vote.

Just as the Presidential election in November will be decided by the electoral college, not popular vote, the Democratic nomination is decided by delegates.

If we believed the popular vote was  somehow the key measurement, we would have campaigned much more intensively in our home state of Illinois and in all the other populous states, in the pursuit of larger raw vote totals. But it is not the key measurement. We played by the rules, set by you, the DNC members, and campaigned as hard as we could, in as many places as we could, to acquire delegates. Essentially, the popular vote is not much better as a metric than basing the nominee on which candidate raised more money, has more volunteers, contacted more voters, or is taller.

The Clinton campaign was very clear about their own strategy until the numbers become too ominous for them. They were like a broken record , repeating ad nauseum that this nomination race is about delegates. Now, the word delegate has disappeared from their vocabulary, in an attempt to change the rules and create an alternative reality.

We want to be clear - we believe that the winner of a majority of pledged delegates will and should be the nominee of our party. And we estimate that after the Oregon and Kentucky primaries on May 20, we will have won a majority of the overall pledged delegates  According to a recent news report, by even their most optimistic estimates the Clinton Campaign expects to trail by more than 100 pledged delegates and will then ask the superdelegates to overturn the will of the voters.

But of course superdelegates are free to and have been utilizing their own criteria for deciding who our nominee should be. Many are deciding on the basis of electability, a favorite Clinton refrain. And if you look at the numbers, during a period where the Clinton campaign has been making an increasingly strident pitch on electability, it is clear their argument is failing miserably with superdelegates.

Since February 5, the Obama campaign has netted 107 superdelegates, and the Clinton campaign only 21. Since the Pennsylvania primary, much of it during the challenging Rev. Wright period, we have netted 24 and the Clinton campaign 17.

At some point - we would argue that time is now - this ceases to be a theoretical exercise about how superdelegates view electability. The reality of the preferences in the last several weeks offer a clear guide of how strongly superdelegates feel Senator Obama will perform in November, both in building a winning campaign for the presidency as well as providing the best electoral climate across the country for all Democratic candidates.

It is important to note that Senator Obama leads Senator Clinton in superdelegate endorsements among Governors, United States Senators and members of the House of Representatives. These elected officials all have a keen sense for who our strongest nominee will be in November.

It is only among DNC members where Senator Clinton holds a lead, which has been rapidly dwindling.

As we head into the final days of the campaign, we just wanted to be clear with you as a party leader, who will be instrumental in making the final decision of who our nominee will be, how we view the race at this point.

Senator Obama, our campaign and our supporters believe pledged delegates is the most legitimate metric for determining how this race has unfolded. It is simply the ratification of the DNC rules - your rules - which we built this campaign and our strategy around.

So, it's off to Oregon.  Until next week, keep up the hard work.

Tags: Barack Obama, campaigns, caucus, Election, Hillary Clinton, Primary, superdelegates (all tags)



Re: Congrats to HRC

Who is going to fill up the Hillary-jet.

Just hold on, reports are out that they are in massive debt again.

I wonder if she will use bankruptcy as the reason for her conession....

that she "wanted to count" those votes, but can't afford to fight on.


by GeorgeP922 2008-05-07 09:06AM | 0 recs
Re: Congrats to HRC, and Plouffe Makes the Case

If pledged delegates were the metric, there wouldn't BE superdelegates.  That said, this all strikes me as extremely academic at this juncture.

by Steve M 2008-05-07 09:15AM | 0 recs
Re: Congrats to HRC, and Plouffe Makes the Case

No, they are the metric because you are talking serious business for SD's to override the delegates chosen by voters.

Sure they can, and on paper HRC makes it look like a last sec decision they are free to make at the convention.

SD are there as an extra safety zone, because sometimes voters could very well be wrong.

by GeorgeP922 2008-05-07 09:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Congrats to HRC, and Plouffe Makes the Case

Like now

by gunner 2008-05-07 09:32AM | 0 recs
Maybe, but they are entitled to be wrong

I thought voters were wrong in 2004, too, but that is democracy.  I believe that the Dem primary system needs some significant reforms but the Obama nomination is the result we are going to get under the current system.

by lombard 2008-05-07 09:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Maybe, but they are entitled to be wrong

Well it seems like you are talking about two different things.

Are you saying voters were wrong in picking Kerry.

Cause if you are talking about the genereal than you make no sense and are pullung another repub tactic of confusing readers by distraction.

by GeorgeP922 2008-05-07 10:34AM | 0 recs
No, I was talking about reelecting Bush.

by lombard 2008-05-07 10:48AM | 0 recs
Re: No, I was talking about reelecting Bush.

k so you are trying to mislead people.

How the hell do SD's override the 2004 Bush Vote.

God you suck, you know exactly what you are doing.

At least you are honest after the lie.

There's no way you are not a republican, only repubs use that type of method of distraction/lies.

by GeorgeP922 2008-05-07 11:27AM | 0 recs
What in the hell are you ranting about?

The message of the post was that we, as Americans, have to accept the verdict of democracy even if we feel that the verdict is wrong.  

Typical loony Kossak: seeking offense and fueling your paranoia at every available opportunity. Apparently, your reading comprehension is also something less than first rate.  Coming from you, I'll take the remark of "God, you suck" as a badge of honor.

by lombard 2008-05-07 11:56AM | 0 recs
Re: Congrats to HRC, and Plouffe Makes the Case

ok so you are trying to mislead people.

How the hell do SD's override the 2004 Bush Vote.

God you suck, you know exactly what you are doing.

At least you are honest after the lie.

There's no way you are not a republican, only repubs use that type of method of distraction/lies.

by GeorgeP922 2008-05-07 11:26AM | 0 recs


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