NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

I know it is ARG but they have new polls out for NC and IN.

Here are the numbers and a link.

North Carolina
Obama 50, Clinton 42

Indiana
Clinton 53, Obama 45

Link

Tags: Hillary Clinton Obama Election 2008 Primary (all tags)

Comments

58 Comments

Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

Other new polls today:

IA has Obama up 3 in NC
SUSA has HRC up 12 in IN

by TexasDarlin 2008-05-05 07:09AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

And if these results play out, what kind of delegate numbers will that yield for each?

by politicsmatters 2008-05-05 07:11AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

If those results play out, more stories will grow about Obama's inability to close it out.  

The delegate numbers matter, but what matters more is Obama's fade.  Oregon will become his last chance to win a primary where the demographics did not favor him as in the Democratic primaries in the South.

If he holds on in NC, that will help, but is the margin is within 5%, it will show real weakness.  

by TomP 2008-05-05 07:16AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

Tom:
I agree that a bad showing in NC (anything less than a 5 point win) will be devastating.

But the "inability to close it out" argument is a bit silly. What does that even mean? We have a divided party right now. Obama has a slight lead. Why should the burden be on him to "close it out"? It's a close race. It's going to stay a close race with Obama ahead until it's over.

by Democratic Unity 2008-05-05 07:18AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

I'm not validating the argument.  I just think it will be a media theme, pushed, of course, by the Clinton campaign.

by TomP 2008-05-05 07:36AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

I know, I mean he's only won two times more contests than his opponent in a heavily contested primary season that features two incredibly strong candidates. LOL

by RussTC3 2008-05-05 09:21AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

Do you have a link to the SUSA poll?

by mashews 2008-05-05 07:12AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

yeah can we have linkage to SUSA?

by zane 2008-05-05 07:13AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

I thought I read that Indiana bans automated poll calling. So SUSA has had to fudge around with different methods to reach the state. But I'm not sure if that's true.

by elrod 2008-05-05 07:14AM | 0 recs
Not sure what automated polling is

unless it's a recorded poll that you push buttons to answer, but I live in Indiana and I was polled by Gallup via phone two weeks ago. This was with a person, not a recording. I was polled regarding Obama, Clinton and health care.

by anna belle 2008-05-05 07:18AM | 0 recs
by TexasDarlin 2008-05-05 07:16AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

NOW im excited!

go hill's hoosiers!

by zane 2008-05-05 07:17AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

21% of blacks going to Clinton? Unlikely. That would bring Clinton's margin in Northern Indiana down. But the rest of it is possible. Recalibrating it to fit with racial voting elsewhere and Clinton wins by 9.

by elrod 2008-05-05 07:23AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

My recalibration came up with HRC + 6

by TexasDarlin 2008-05-05 07:28AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

agree, but the opposite side is that the female vote is only 52% and we know that it will be over 55%, so I guess that's a wash? Just guessing.. but your point abt black vote is right

by American1989 2008-05-05 08:10AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

has hillary really cut obama's lead down to single digits in NC?  if so and she wins IN, what does this say to the superdelegates?

by Scope441 2008-05-05 07:11AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

NC has lots more delegates than IN, so Obama can pick up more delegates anyway if that happened.

by politicsmatters 2008-05-05 07:12AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

Indiana awards 72 delegates and North Carolina awards 115 delegates (not including superdelegates).

Pledged delegates
Barack Obama is 133 pledged delegates away from getting a majority of pledged delegates.
Hillary Clinton is 294 pledged delegates away from getting a majority of pledged delegates

Oveall delegates
Barack Obama is 285 delegates away from getting a majority of delegates.
Hillary Clinton is 416 delegates away from getting a majority of delegates.

Post your delegate predictions at http://www.mydd.com/story/2008/5/5/11554 /75437

by politicsmatters 2008-05-05 07:14AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

I think actually it won't make much difference what the margins are (unless there is a blowout in IN or NC) the delegate allocation will be the same.

However, this contest is as much about super delegates as anything else.

If Obama wins NC by a squeaker (or actually looses!) it's going to rattle the super delegates to the point where this will go until August.

by kristoph 2008-05-05 07:18AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

... and although I think it unlikely, what if she somehow wins NC. If so Obama will be in real trouble.

by kristoph 2008-05-05 07:13AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

Agree, and while I''m not counting on it, I do believe in miracles, i.e. New Hampshire :)

by phoenixdreamz 2008-05-05 07:20AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

Then she'll be the nominee

by eumc 2008-05-05 07:31AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

Isn't this Diary discussing the ARG poll(I know it's crap)..but it shows Obama up by double digits.

by feliks 2008-05-05 07:14AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

8

by zane 2008-05-05 07:15AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

Um, up by 8 in NC

Clinton is up by double digits in Indianna.

by Sensible 2008-05-05 07:39AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

That same poll had Hillary ahead by 2 in NC.  Even if this poll is correct, which I doubt, she's going in the wrong direction.

by nklein 2008-05-05 10:55AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

i don't think it is about delegate counts at this point since neither candidate can get the number needed to win and the difference between them is so small.  i think now the supers will have to sit back and think who is most electable.  right now they seem to think obama is but i wonder what they will think of obama loses IN and wins by single digits in NC.

thoughts?

by Scope441 2008-05-05 07:13AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

There are superdelegates who are on record saying that they will support the winner of pledged delegates.  See http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/03/ superdelegates-pledging-to-back.html

by politicsmatters 2008-05-05 07:16AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

Breaking News: Hillary Campaign suggests they now have enough votes on the ByLaws committee to overturn the ban on the Florida and Michigan primaries. If this should happen its lights out for Obama

by steve468 2008-05-05 07:25AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

Actually there are more people to be appointed. The person to appoint them is Howard Dean........enough said

by feliks 2008-05-05 07:30AM | 0 recs
ARRRGGGGGG

This poll isn't far off from other polls we've seen from these states, but still - it's ARRRGGGGGGG. We'd get more information if you posted the words you found in your alphabet soup.

by jaiwithani 2008-05-05 07:14AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

Isn't the Indiana ARG poll tighter than it was a few days ago.  I just have a feeling that Obama is coming back in Indiana.  Zogby has him ahead.

by karajan72 2008-05-05 07:20AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

change from last arg poll = C+3 O (no change)

by zane 2008-05-05 07:23AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

Zogby is a joke, all over the map. CNN is reporting this morning that Clinton has opened up a significant lead in Indiana.

by steve468 2008-05-05 07:26AM | 0 recs
Only 2% Undecided in IN?

That seems pretty low to me, particularly given all the back and forth about the gas tax.  

by professor 2008-05-05 07:20AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

maybe this should be an open thread for all the final polls today?

you could put the new SUSA IN numbers up and the IA NC poll up, they are releasing their IN poll in 40 mins. SUSA should have an NC one up soon too.

by zane 2008-05-05 07:20AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

Supers may say a lot of things.  i hope they remember that their job is to elect the most electable candidate.  if obama has faded as much as it may appear, shouldn't they reverse their decision and go with the candidate who is now winning?  isn't it their job to pay attention to trends?  that if people are having buyers remorse or if a game changer happens late in the election process where it now appears the candidate slightly ahead is unelectable in the general, that they can step in and prevent a loss in nov?  

i would think they should...

by Scope441 2008-05-05 07:24AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

Yes they should if they want a winner this Fall. If they want another Kerry or McGovern then vote for Obama

by steve468 2008-05-05 07:31AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

Sure, but how do they determine who is unelectable? To be unelectable you have to be trailing McCain by at least 10 points in every single poll. Any margin lower than that just reflects the fact that McCain has had a free ride and the Democrats are divided.

For example, Mondale and McGovern never pulled within 10 points of Reagan and Nixon. It was obvious from the very beginning that both were unelectable. There was no collapse - like with Dukakis - or subtle warning signs that blew up. No, it was damn obvious those elections would be blowouts.

Neither candidate is in that position right now. Obama and Clinton have different strategies to win in November. Obama gets better educated Independents but loses uneducated white Democrats. Clinton gets uneducated white Democrats - particularly women - but loses educated white Independents.

Don't for a second think the right-wing media is going to keep going easy on Clinton if she gets the nomination.

by elrod 2008-05-05 07:32AM | 0 recs
Most annoying possible outcome

The most annoying possible outcome (MAPO) is Obama in NC by 8 and Clinton in IN by 6.  That would mean the status quo spinnable for both sides. It would also mean the slow superdelegate trickle to Obama continues and Hillary's slow death comes closer to reality.  She needs a game changer.  What is that game changer? If Clinton wins IN by 10 then she has a claim to new real momentum. If she loses NC by less than 5 she has a big claim to new real momentum. It's debatable what superdelegates do in that case.  

But if she wins NC the race has been turned upside down and the superdelegate trickle to Obama will stop and probably reverse. I don't know that there is an Indiana threshold for that to happen but I'd say if she wins by 15 - approaching the numbers that he won in Wisconsin - then it's as powerful as her winning NC.

by elrod 2008-05-05 07:28AM | 0 recs
Re: Most annoying possible outcome

As in the famous saying of Ronald Reagon: "There you go again!" Can't seem to get out of Obama 'fantasy land', Is Alice in Wonderland giving you her psychic predicton?

by steve468 2008-05-05 07:34AM | 0 recs
Re: Most annoying possible outcome

I don't know what the numbers will be, but I think the most likely scenario is a split, with Obama winning NC and Clinton winning IN. So then the race goes on and more superdelegates will continue to declare.  

According to http://www.politico.com/superdelegates/ Clinton is currently +15 in superdelegates, but they haven't included one that came out for Obama today.

by politicsmatters 2008-05-05 07:36AM | 0 recs
Re: Most annoying possible outcome

What is that supposed to mean? If people are going to talk about unelectability, they need to know what unelectability means. And it means getting blown out in polls at this point.

by elrod 2008-05-05 07:37AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

perhaps the gas tax holiday has helped hillary?  i think working class voters (who obama already has trouble with) will not relate to obama's argument.  what they understand is that they are hurting at the pump.  if they hear they will save money this summer, no matter how small, they are going to go with that candidate.  i don't think they care who is gonna pay for the money savings or what the long term effects are, right or wrong.

so, i really think that the gas tax holiday helps hillary with these voters.  these are the voters that can hold obama's margins down or give hillary a win.

by Scope441 2008-05-05 07:28AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

perhaps you are right elrod, but i don't think so.  hillary must win IN in my opinion.  however, if she keeps obama's lead in NC to below 10% i think that will really dominate the MSM.  remember obama was supposed to win by a landslide, 20+ points in NC.  the demographics are very much in his favor.  to squeak out a win in NC spells real trouble for him.  i think the supers will trickle to hillary.  she wins NC and they will flood toward her.

just my thoughts.

by Scope441 2008-05-05 07:32AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

But she was supposed to win PA by a landslide and didn't. So why the double standard?

by politicsmatters 2008-05-05 07:34AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

No, she actually wasn't supposed to win Penn in a landslide.

by Sensible 2008-05-05 07:41AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

Well, it depends on when we're talking about. After the Wright story broke, a lot of people were predicting a landslide.

by politicsmatters 2008-05-05 07:53AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

Couldn't the same be said for Clinton and PA? She led there by as much as Obama led in NC. And Clinton won by 9.2 percent. If Obama wins NC by 9.2 percent then he can claim to have won by more than a squeaker, but not a blowout.

I have no idea what the Indiana threshold is.

by elrod 2008-05-05 07:36AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

actually, i thought only ONE poll showed her winning by over 20%? one poll?  most others showed it very tight and they she pulled it away in the end.  

wasn't obama supposed to close the deal after 2/5?  wasn't he supposed to win at least one big state TX, OH, PA and didn't?

that is my recollection anyway.  

by Scope441 2008-05-05 07:40AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

i don't know steve468.  democrats don't have the best record at picking a winner.  they have picked 2 in the last 40 years.  i can see it becoming clear that obama will lose in nov and yet the supers still nominating him.  heck, its already becoming clear he is going to lose and they are still flocking toward him.

by Scope441 2008-05-05 07:36AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

Bill Clinton was much further behind in GE numbers at this point than Obama is.

by politicsmatters 2008-05-05 07:37AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

Other than 1992, the Republicans have never been in this state of disarray before a GE - at least since 1964. Look at party identification. Look at special elections. Look at party registration. Look at Bush's approval numbers. Look at generic ballot matchups. Look at party ID among younger voters. The Republican Party is in disarray right now. Total and complete disarray. Any Democrat will win in November - even against the "maverick" John McCain, who many Republicans fear is just another Bob Dole.

by elrod 2008-05-05 07:45AM | 0 recs
1992

Clinton was THIRD at this point in 1992 behind Perot and the first President Bush

by rossinatl 2008-05-05 07:41AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

i don't think national polls at this point matter at all.  unless someone is getting killed in it.  i think looking at the demographics and which each candidate easily wins and which they do not.

hillary has a problem with blacks and wealthy educated liberals.  

obama has a problem with working class and perhaps whites.

wealthy educated liberals will vote for hillary in the fall because they will never vote mccain.  blacks could be a problem but i think hillary can repair the damage since she has a great record with this group.

obama can maybe repair damage with whites.  i am not sure since the problem has just started and i am not sure everything is out with wright yet.  however, i don't think it is possible for him to repair the damage he has done on working class.  these people i feel have made up their mind on him and will vote mccain in the fall.  they are not tied to a party, only the person they can most relate to and who will save them a buck in the end.  that isn't obama.  

by Scope441 2008-05-05 07:49AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

I think the worry over the black vote is not that they'll vote for McCain in the fall over Hillary, but that their turnout will be low.  Perhaps not low enough to effect her overall electability, but certainly low enough to hurt down ticket.

by jimotto 2008-05-05 08:54AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

elrod, i agree, this election is ours to lose, but we CAN lose it.  i don't think we should get to cocky yet about winning.  it will be VERY upsetting to lose in the fall.  i thought we had it in the bag in 2004 and look how that turned out.

looking at obama's numbers in key states and I am very nervous.  obama's numbers have been trending down in recent months, not up.  that has me scared that they will continue as more things like wright, "bitter" come to light.  

maybe obama will have an easy win, but i wouldn't guarantee it.

by Scope441 2008-05-05 07:53AM | 0 recs
Re: NEW ARG POLL: NC and IN

If Clinton wins Indiana by a decent margin and loses NC by a few points, won't it lead to a pretty good chance she would lead in the popular vote at the end of all the primaries?

by leozh 2008-05-05 08:28AM | 0 recs

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