Who can stop Scott Brown?
by markjay, Wed Jan 20, 2010 at 12:43:58 AM EST
I don't expect that Scott Brown will be running for re-election to the Senate in 2012. More likely, he'll be running for President. And he could be darn hard to stop.
I doubt if there is anybody in the U.S. Senate who wouldn't like to be President. For most, it is a question of finding the right time to make a run, if indeed it's possible. Imagine then that you are Scott Brown.
If he has to run for re-election in 2012 and then waits to run for President in 2016, his chances drop considerably. If he tilts to the left in the next couple of years, he wins re-election, but then can't get through a national Republican primary. If he tilts to the right in the next couple of years, he loses his re-election bid and becomes just another Joe Shmoe.
But, imagine instead that he seizes the initiative and runs for president in 2012. Nobody can accuse him of being too inexperienced--not after Obama's recent victory. He'll win over independents and moderate Republicans due to his moderate social views. And he might win just enough right wing votes -- from people who see him as a Democratic dragon-slayer, or the Republican's best hope, or who like his fiscal conservativsm, to win the nomination.
At that point, he could either balance the ticket (Brown-Huckabee?) or choose another centrist (Portman, Crist, etc.) and, either way, put forth a formidable candidacy, especially if the economy doesn't recover well in the next year or two.
It might all seem hard to believe, but who would have thought a month ago that we could lose Teddy Kennedy's seat?