Idaho primary confirms TX, WA, NE trend
by markjay, Wed May 28, 2008 at 02:39:17 PM EDT
Idaho held a non-binding primary last night. More than twice as many Democrats cast their votes in it as in the Idaho caucus on Feb 5. But whereas Obama won the caucus by 62 points (79 to 17), he won the much larger primary by 18 (56 to 38), exactly the same margin as in the primaries in neighboring Utah and Oregon, both of which he also won by 18, suggesting that the margin may be an accurate reflection of a regional preference.
And even though more than twice as many people voted in the primary, Obama's margin in votes cast was also substantially smaller -- less than 8000 in the primary compared to more than 13,000 in the caucus.
The 44 point Obama-Clinton swing from caucus to primary confirms previous trends in Texas (20 point swing), Washington (32 point swing), and Nebraska (34 point swing).
Further evidence that the undemocratic caucus system is the basis for Obama's pledged delegate lead.
(Thanks to an anonymous commenter at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/s enior-surge.html for bringing this to our attention.)