Hillary Clinton eyes victory in the west

The Western United States .  The fastest growing region in the country.  The largest number of new immigrants.  Home to Las Vegas, Silicon Valley, Napa Valley, Hollywood and our largest national parks, the source of most of America's fruit, beef and wine and much of our oil, land of dot-coms, ranches and retirement communities - rapidly becoming the most diverse part of America.

Hillary Country.

Hillary has generated excitement in Arizona , Colorado , Nevada , Washington , California and across the West, where she's given thousands of supporters the chance to see her up close. And the endorsements keep rolling in: former Washington Governor Gary Locke, Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, California Assembly Speaker Fabian Nuñez, Colorado House Speaker Andrew Romanoff, California Senator Dianne Feinstein, Oakland Mayor Ron Dellums, former Denver Mayor Wellington Webb, California Controller John Chiang, as well as Arizonan Raul Yzaguirre, former president of the National Council of La Raza, the leading Hispanic advocacy organization in the country.

Nowhere is Hillary's Western strength more evident than in Nevada , where a recent poll shows her breaking 50% in the primary and leading by 37 points.

And her support among local leaders only continues to grow, including: Clark County Commissioner Rory Reid, former Governor Bob Miller, Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus, former Las Vegas Mayor Jan Jones, State Treasurer Kate Marshall, Assembly Majority Leader John Oceguera, Dr. Robert Fowler, Clark County Commissioner Chris Giunchigliani, former Attorney General Frankie Sue Del Papa, Las Vegas Latin Chamber of Commerce Chairman Robert Gomez and Reno-Sparks Indian Colony Chairman Arlan Menendez..

This summer, Hillary has drawn huge crowds across the Silver State , including 3,500 in Reno , more than 3,000 in Las Vegas and even 2,500 in rural Pahrump--where she's opened a regional field office.

The Clinton campaign has brought the Hillary tour to most of the Western states, and has a strong on-the-ground presence with offices, field organizers, and thousands of volunteers spanning the region.

And the West is turning out to be a stronger region for Hillary Clinton than anyone anticipated.

1.      Hillary Is Winning

Democratic Primary

Hillary leads the Democratic primary by more than 20 points in the West, with an overwhelming lead in Arizona , California , Colorado , Nevada , Oregon , and Washington .

Recent Democratic Primary Polls

State     Poll                  Results                    

AZ    ARG Oct 5-9        HRC 41 / Edwards 16 / Obama 14       +25

CA   San Jose Oct 1-8    HRC 42 / Obama 20 / Edwards 14      +22

CO   ARG Sept 15-18      HRC 36 / Obama 20 / Edwards 19       +16

NV    ARG Oct 5-9       HRC 51 / Edwards 14 / Obama 11        +37

OR   Riley Aug 10-15     HRC 26 / Obama 18 / Edwards 17       +8

WA  S Vision Oct 5-7     HRC 48 / Obama 22 / Edwards 10      +26

Hillary leads the Democratic primary by more than 30 points among Latinos, more than 40 points among women, more than 20 points among men, more than thirty points among whites and more than 10 points among African-Americans.  She also wins among urban, suburban and rural voters.

General Election

Hillary is winning the general election in New Mexico , a state which Bush won in 2004, and in California , Oregon and Washington .

Together with Hawaii , this means Hillary Clinton is starting with two-thirds of the electoral votes in the West.

And because of her unique ability to take advantage of changing demographics, Hillary can also turn Colorado , Arizona , Nevada and Montana from Red to Blue.  Bill Clinton was the only Democrat since 1968 to win these states, and Hillary Clinton is the only Democrat positioned to win them in 2008.

Hillary has an 8 point lead over Rudy Giuliani nationally in the latest ABC/Washington Post poll, and she leads by more than 40 points among Latinos, 18 points among women, 13 points among moderates and more than 80 points among African-Americans in that poll and other recent polls - all crucial voter blocks in the West and nationally.

General Election

State        Poll                Results            

CA   Surv USA Sept 14-16      HRC 57 / Giuliani 37          +20                                

                                      HRC 60 / Thompson 34   +26      

                                      HRC 63 / Romney 30     +33

NM   Surv USA Sept 14-16       HRC 51 / Giuliani 43         +8

                                      HRC 53 / Thompson 42   +11

                                      HRC 54 / Romney 39     +15

OR Surv USA Sept 14-16          HRC 46 / Giuliani 44          +2  

                                      HRC 49 / Thompson 42   +7

                                      HRC 51 / Romney 38    +13

WA  Survey USA Aug 10-12        HRC 55 / Giuliani 40          +15

                                      HRC 57 / Thompson 38   +19

                                      HRC 57 / Romney 36     +21

2. Why Hillary Is Winning

Changing Demographics

Two key groups help explain why the West is breaking for Hillary: Latinos and women.  They were the swing voter groups whose movement towards Bush gave him victory in 2004 and whose support will be vital to a Democratic victory in 2008.  And Hillary has stronger support among these groups than any other Democratic or Republican candidate.

   * Latinos favor Hillary Clinton by more than 30 points in the Democratic primary and more than 40 points in the general election.
    * Women made up 54 percent of the electorate last time, and they make up an even bigger slice of the Democratic primary - including 59 percent in Arizona , where the last two governors were both women.  Women favor Hillary Clinton by more than 40 points in the Democratic primary and 18 points in the general election.
    * An overwhelming 94 percent of young women say they would turn out to vote for the first woman president because it would be important to them.  And a 10 percent increase in women turning out for Hillary Clinton alone would flip New Mexico , Nevada and Colorado to the Democrats.

These demographic trends are a big part of the reason Democrats recently picked up a US Senate seat in Montana , the Colorado governor's race, House seats in Colorado , Arizona and California and the Oregon state legislature.

Hillary's Message and Lifetime of Achievement on Issues that Matter to Western Voters

Why are Westerners so crazy about Hillary Clinton?  Because on the issues that matter to Western voters - like sensible immigration reform, environmental protection, alternative energy, Yucca Mountain, choice, health insurance for children, reducing the budget deficit and ending the Iraq war - Hillary is the only candidate with the experience and record of accomplishment to get the job done.

And Hillary has been reaching out to women and Latinos more than any other campaign - with a bilingual Website and a Website for Women for Hillary, and extensive national and local outreach to both of these core groups, communicating her historic message of change, leadership and experience.

The old adage says as goes the West so goes the country.  If that's true, it's just another sign that Hillary Clinton is poised to win.

Penn released this memo on Friday in anticipation of Hillary Rodham Clinton's trip to Nevada  called "Ready to Lead in the West" .

For more information about her trip to Nevada :

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/actioncent er/event/view/?id=4035

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/hq/nevada/

She discussed her plans for healthcare in  " A Discussion on Healthcare with Hillary Clinton " at East Las Vegas Community Center

For more information about how the campaign is doing in Nevada.

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/hq/nevada/

http://www.hillaryclinton.com/actioncent er/event/view/?id=4033

Anyone who hasn't read the book by Thomas F. Schaller,          

" Whistling Past Dixie: How Democrats Can Win Without the South "

should read it. He's bottomline forget the south and look west in the general election .

I am for a 50 state strategy in local and state level but not on a presidential level especially not in 08 , anyone who claims he/she can win in the deep south I hope is just using it as a campaign strategy in the primary election but I expect our candidates to use their resources and fund strategically in the general. Its okay if you talk about winning in missisipi , alabama to rile up as long as when you get into the general you use your resources in iowa , missouri , ohio and other western state.

Taylor Marsh has an interesting interview with Thomas F. Schaller, the podcast is up and I recommend it as a pretty good listen.

http://www.taylormarsh.com/taylor_marsh_ live.php 

The Clinton campaign understands that the battle is going to be in the west (i.e. South West and Midwest ) , I hope other campaigns do as well.

Tags: 08, Arizona, California, Democratic Primary, general election, Hillary Clinton, latino's, Nevada, Oregun, west, Women (all tags)

Comments

16 Comments

Re: Hillary Clinton eyes victory in the west

I think Hillary is the only Democrat who can put CA and NY in the Blue column next year against Rudy and go on to win NV, NM for sure and possibly even CO and AZ with her listening tour.

Whining candidates are not going to the West.

by American1989 2007-10-21 03:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Clinton eyes victory in the west

Nothing like touting Polls a year out as GE gospel... Esecially since 3 of the 4 have gone Blue the last 4 elections... yeah real convincing... Throw some Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, etc polls out there for GE and watch her numbers shrink considerably in all of the west except CA as the GE gets closer... Not sayign she'd lose them, but to call them Hillary country is just pure bullshit.

by yitbos96bb 2007-10-21 03:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Clinton eyes victory in the west

I don't think any Democrat is going to win Mormon Country Utah. As for AZ and CO, those states are GOP leaning and AZ seems to be firm on the GOP stool. I am also confident that if Hillary cannot win AZ, neither can Obama.

No inexperienced candidate is going to be elected Commander-In-Chief during time of war.

by American1989 2007-10-21 03:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Clinton eyes victory in the west

Good post!

by BigBoyBlue 2007-10-21 04:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Clinton eyes victory in the west

Nicely done. Lori.

Although I support another, I recommended your diary.

by TomP 2007-10-21 04:26PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Clinton eyes victory in the west

Thanks for this- there is real excitement here in California for Hillary- the state is definitely in her corner.

by reasonwarrior 2007-10-21 04:35PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Clinton eyes victory in the west

Thanks for this- there is real excitement here in California for Hillary- the state is definitely in her corner.

by reasonwarrior 2007-10-21 04:36PM | 0 recs
Nice write-up.

I'm watching the game, is there anything significant you could tell us about the interview?

by bookgrl 2007-10-21 04:46PM | 0 recs
I think it's true that she's eying the West

HRC will hold a rally in downtown Denver this Tuesday. I can attest to the fact that she is concentrating on the Colorado caucuses right now. I volunteered at headquarters today and we were calling people to encourage them to go to the rally as well as get a feeler as to which candidate they were supporting in the caucuses. Apparently, a lot of Coloradans don't know that they are having a caucus this year, instead of a primary. A lot of the people that I talked to asked what a caucus was. The campaigns are going to have to provide some heavy duty education for these new caucus participants. Given the logistical issues associated with caucuses, I think it's really smart to start lining up supporters to the caucuses now in October instead of waiting a couple of months from now. Does anyone know if she's opened up an office in Colorado yet? If she hasn't, I hope that she does soon....

by ademption 2007-10-21 05:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Clinton eyes victory in the west

Hillary Country

What wise Democrat said about this sort of slogan?

"That seems to me kind of arrogant. I think its the people's country, not any politician's"?

by desmoulins 2007-10-21 06:09PM | 0 recs
Re:Arizona & Colorado is real!

Great job Lori!

I spend 4 months of the year in Arizona & 3 months in Colorado for business.

If you speak privately to Democratic leaders in Tucson & Phoenix- they will tell you that the Excitement is real.

Arizona democratic leaders including Governor Napolitano really believe that Hillary Clinton can win Arizona next year.

There are several factors that really justifies their belief:

1)Bill Clinton carried Arizona in 1996 even with a much more conservative AZ back then. Today, AZ's democratic registration has grown twice that of the GOP. ( due to so many Californians moving in. Many Hispanic & Asian-american). Hillary being a CLINTON also can't hurt especially since the only democratic to win in the last 30 years was a Clinton as well.!

2)Gov. Janet Napolitano won re-election by a LANDSLIDE last year. She did extremely well even in Maricopa Country( which was considered GOP country)

3) A democrat challenger successfully won the a House seat last year in Phoenix/Tempe by defeating a 5 term incumbent Republican in a district that is part of Maricopa & once a bastion of republicanism.

4)Arizona boasts the highest number of women voters in the Southwest. This explains why 3 out of the 4 top statewide posts in the last 12 were held by women & the last two governors were women.

This is part of the reason Hillary does well in Arizona pollings.

5) Even John McCain is in trouble in Arizona. Once an icon in AZ politics, two recent polls show that if he runs for re-election as a Senator in 2010, Democrat Gov. Janet Napolitano would beat him by a landslide!

Arizona is REAL !

Now Colorado in the same story in terms of Excitement & Confidence among local democrats.

Why?

1) Heavy growth among Latino voter registration. This combined with Asian-American transfers from California.

2)  Two consecutive highly successful statewide victories for Governor & Senator in Ritter & Salazar. ( The state machinery is in place)

3) A strong democratic candidate for Senator in Udall will bring heavy turnout combined with the Presidential race.

4)The recent success of moderate democrats statewide.

AZ & CO have 19 electoral votes total. We win one or two- that's HUGE!

by labanman 2007-10-21 06:22PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Clinton eyes victory in the west

Is bragging about Hillary's ability to hold states that John Kerry won really a show of strength in the "west?"  Respectfully, there's really no evidence that HRC plays at all in the Mountain West, which is where other types of Democrats have made strides lately.  She can certainly win a general election, by picking up Ohio and Florida, but arguing that she's any kind of a game changer in the west strikes me as sort of silly.  

by HSTruman 2007-10-22 06:07AM | 0 recs
I agree west is tough for her

Strangly the region she might make the most inroads as compared to Kerry and Gore is the south. Polls show her dominant against any Republican in Arkansas, and she's leading in Florida and Virginia. In the midwest she should win Iowa and be competitive in Ohio and Missouri. In the west Colorado, Arizona, and Nevada are potentially in play, but it says something that no general election polls from those states were included in this analysis.

by Christopher Lib 2007-10-22 08:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Clinton eyes victory in the west

Yes its relevant considering Giuliani is still very popular there and he matches up very well against the dems in Kerry states, and even makes blue states somewhat competitive across the Kerry states.

by sepulvedaj3 2007-10-22 08:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary Clinton eyes victory in the west

Ok, I suppose, but titling the diary victory in the west and then talking about states that have gone for the Democratic candidate for 4+ presidential cycles strikes me as a bit incongruous.  Also, I personally think the "Rudy puts blue states into play for the GOP" mem is BS.  The so-called values voters will either sit on their hands or vote third party if Rudy's the GOP nominee -- so I actually think ANY Democrat will beat him quite easily.  None of the general election polling to date, in these purportedly vulnerable blue states, has taken that into account.  

by HSTruman 2007-10-22 09:03AM | 0 recs
Local Democrats in West fear Hillary...

Local Democrats in West fear impact of unpopular ticket leader

Party officials in the Rocky Mountain region worry their congressional candidates' chances may be hurt by unfavorable presidential hopefuls, such as Hillary Clinton.
By Noam N. Levey
Los Angeles Times Staff Writer

September 30, 2007

BOZEMAN, MONT. -- Election day was still more than a year off when Sen. Max Baucus recently stopped by the new Boys & Girls Club along a creek outside this fast-growing city in the shadow of southwestern Montana's jagged Bridger Mountains.

But the silver-haired Democrat looked every bit a candidate in a nail-biter as he finger-painted with children at the log-cabin clubhouse and then raced 100 miles down the Missouri River to the state capital to talk up what he was doing for the state in Washington.

Baucus is the longest-serving senator in Montana history. As chairman of the finance committee, he writes the nation's tax laws. He is one of the most popular politicians in the state. And his party, which controls the governor's office, the Legislature and the state's two Senate seats, is on a roll.

Yet, as he prepares to run for a fifth term next year, Baucus is entering treacherous territory. Despite recent gains by Democrats in the Rocky Mountain West, party officials across the region are increasingly anxious that their congressional candidates may get dragged under by Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential campaign.

The New York senator and Democratic front-runner was by a wide margin the most unpopular of 13 potential presidential candidates in Montana, according to a June survey by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Billings Gazette; 61% said they would not consider voting for her, compared with 49% who would not vote for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards and 45% who would not vote for Illinois Sen. Barack Obama. The most unpopular Republican candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, was rejected by 51%.

Recent polls in Colorado, Nevada and Arizona have found similar distaste for Clinton.

"She's carrying huge negatives out here," said Floyd Ciruli, an independent Colorado pollster who said Democratic congressional candidates would have to highlight their differences with the national party to be successful next year. "It's that liberal East Coast image that is so hard to sell in the West."

One key advisor to a prominent Democratic congressional candidate, who asked not be to identified discussing tensions within the party, went even further. "It's a disaster for Western Democrats," he said. "It keeps me up at night."

The Clinton campaign said the alarm was unwarranted and expressed confidence that as voters in the West got to know Clinton, they would back her and the party's congressional candidates. "We expect to head a very strong ticket in the West," spokesman Mo Elleithee said.

Republicans, who have lost ground across the Mountain West for two election cycles, have challenges of their own. President Bush and the war in Iraq remain deeply unpopular. The GOP presidential nominee may also be an East Coast politician: former New York Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani.

And although most states in the region will probably back the Republican presidential candidate, Democrats appear to have the momentum. The party has picked up seats in Congress in four of the last five elections. And it controls governors' mansions in five of the eight states of the inland West; in 2000, it was zero.

"There is a steady march," said Karl Struble, a veteran Democratic strategist who recently opened an office in Arizona to complement his Washington, D.C., headquarters. "My client base is moving west."

Democratic strategists see opportunities in the shifting demographics of the region, where the Latino population is expanding and where major metropolitan areas, particularly in the Southwest, are booming. Both Latinos and city-dwellers lean toward Democrats.

But party leaders and strategists also attribute the recent gains to candidates who connect with Western voters and their values, in part by distinguishing themselves from the national Democratic Party.

Perhaps no one is more of a poster child for that success than Montana's colorful governor, Brian Schweitzer. Three years ago, Schweitzer became the darling of Democratic politicos when he swaggered into office with a dog and a pair of cowboy boots.

Schweitzer, a cattle rancher and the grandson of homesteaders, is no Democrat in name only. He is a proponent of energy conservation and environmental regulation. He favors abortion rights. And while the Bush administration was pushing to expand surveillance powers with the Patriot Act, Schweitzer pardoned 78 Montanans, most of them German immigrants, who had been convicted of sedition during World War I.

He also champions gun rights and coal -- a major Montana export -- positions that reflect clear differences from the Democratic Party's coastal wings.

"There are two kinds of people in Montana," Schweitzer joked in a recent telephone interview. "Those who are for gun control, and those who run for public office."

Across the border in Wyoming -- where voters chose a Democratic governor in 2002 and reelected him by a landslide four years later -- Democratic congressional candidate Gary Trauner offered another caution.

"Maybe in Wyoming, it's easier to be partisan if you are a Republican because you have registration numbers on your side. You can't be if you're a Democrat," said Trauner, a businessman who nearly knocked off Republican Rep. Barbara Cubin in one of the major surprises of the 2006 elections. "I think people, particularly in the West, want their leaders to be independent."

Baucus, who helped President Bush pass sweeping tax cuts early in 2001 and is a stalwart opponent of gun-control legislation, routinely has one of the most conservative voting records among Democrats.

Highlighting that independence may be more difficult in a year when the presidential campaign will focus attention on a national party that is more liberal and more partisan.

"Westerners for a long time believed that Democratic presidential candidates followed some national Democratic scheme to tax and spend," said Pat Williams, a former Democratic congressman from Montana who served 18 years in the House. "Democrats are still pushing uphill here."

Clinton is pushing more than most.

In Arizona, where Democrats hope to pick up at least one congressional seat next year, 37% of the respondents in a recent Cronkite/Eight Poll said they would never vote for Clinton; 3% said they would never vote for Obama. Opposition to Clinton was strongest among Republicans, but a third of independents, who were crucial to many Democratic congressional victories in 2006, said they would never vote for the former first lady. Clinton's unfavorable ratings also far outpaced other Democratic candidates in recent polls in Nevada and Colorado, two states where Democrats hope to make gains next year.

In the past, some Democratic congressional candidates in the Mountain West have kept their distance from their party's presidential pick to underscore their independence. In 2004, Colorado Democrat Ken Salazar, a former prosecutor who won the state's open Senate seat that year, almost never appeared in public with Massachusetts Sen. John F. Kerry, the party's presidential nominee.This campaign season will probably be no different.

Pollster Ciruli and others familiar with Colorado politics expect Rep. Mark Udall, the leading Democratic contender for the state's open Senate seat, to distance himself from Clinton, if she wins the nomination.

Maryland Rep. Chris Van Hollen, who heads the House Democratic campaign effort, said party officials would not push to link candidates with the presidential nominee. "We have to have candidates that connect with their constituents," he said. "Where our candidates disagree with the nominee, whoever that may be, it will be important to distinguish themselves."

Baucus dismisses the potential impact of a Clinton candidacy. "I'm not concerned about anybody," he said after his Helena, Mont., news conference. "I don't even know who the Democratic nominee is going to be."

But Baucus, whose victory margins have been three times larger in nonpresidential election years, isn't taking any chances.

He had raised more than $6 million for his campaign through July, which is as much as he spent in his 2002 race and more than all but six of the 31 senators expected to seek reelection next year, according to records collected by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

This summer he barnstormed the state, talking with Montanans at cookouts he calls "Baucus burger bonanzas." In Bozeman, his visit to the Boys & Girls Club had all the hallmarks of a meticulously planned campaign stop.

Children, parents and club staff thanked Baucus for helping to build the complex. And reporters and cameramen trailed the entourage as the senator admired the computer room, art studio and gymnasium.

Baucus, who had just shepherded through the Senate legislation expanding health insurance for low-income children, sat down with Health and Human Services Secretary Mike Leavitt in front of a hand-picked audience that thanked the senator for his work and pleaded with Leavitt to tell President Bush not to veto the bill.

Afterward, Baucus carried the message outside, where he planted himself in front of a bank of television cameras and intoned: "Every American should have health insurance."

He did not mention that a Democrat in the White House would help the cause.

by bored now 2007-10-22 02:18PM | 0 recs

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