PA: Two new polls show same trends.

Quinnipiac:

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is catching up with New York Sen. Hillary Clinton in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary and now trails 50 - 44 percent among likely primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 50 - 41 percent Sen. Clinton lead in an April 2 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.

In this latest survey, one of the biggest shifts is among women who went from 54 - 37 percent for Clinton April 2 to 54 - 41 percent for her today.

Rasmussen:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Clinton leading Barack Obama by five percentage points in the Keystone State, 48% to 43%. That's little changed from a week ago, but down from a ten-point lead two weeks ago, a thirteen-point lead in mid-March and a fifteen-point advantage in early March.

Most Obama supporters, 58% now say Clinton should drop out of the race while just 19% disagree. A week ago, Obama supporters were more divided on that question--45% wanted Clinton to drop out while 39% disagreed.

Overall, 28% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters believe Clinton should get out of the race. That's up from 21% a week ago. Eighteen percent (18%) say Obama should withdraw, unchanged from last week.

Tags: Pa, polling, quinnipiac, Rassmussen (all tags)

Comments

35 Comments

SUSA! SUSA! SUSA!

Clinton will win by 15-20 and it won't change the math in any meaningful way. Hence the attempts to have delegates pledged to Obama vote for her anyway. Something about that and something else she said seems inconsistent but I can't quite put my finger on it.

by RLMcCauley 2008-04-08 08:56AM | 0 recs
They are all over the place

I like the internals on the SUSA poll a lot and that make very good sense considering the make up of PA. If I had to bet, I would bet on SUSA any day... especially over the Rass..

by linc 2008-04-08 08:56AM | 0 recs
Re: They are all over the place

I think ARG and Zogby are the best. I respect any polling firm that spends such considerable time and effort picking numbers out of a hat. That's a skill too, you know.

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner 2008-04-08 09:03AM | 0 recs
Re: They are all over the place

I think ARG and Zogby are the best. I respect any polling firm that spends such considerable time and effort picking numbers out of a hat. That's a skill too, you know.

ROFLMAO

by pollbuster 2008-04-08 09:14AM | 0 recs
Ha!

That was pretty good.  I would say its a good bet to bet against ARG, always.  To bad they don't stake odds in Vegas.

by linc 2008-04-08 09:19AM | 0 recs
Re: They are all over the place

The internals on the SUSA poll make no sense. That's the main reason people are inclined to see it as an outlier poll, frankly. There's just no reason to believe that there's a huge Obama slip within the Philadelphia area, for instance; nothing else shows that, it doesn't match up with any on-the-ground stories, doesn't sync up at all with any other polling.

My suspicion is that this is the weekend effect in action. You'll notice that every other poll showing tightening was conducted either in part or entirely on weekdays. SUSA was conducted Sat-Mon (Ras Monday, Q Thu-Sun, IA Wed, PPP Mon-Wed).

Obama's worst polling days are weekends, historically. The trend can be seen over and over in many polls. Most likely that's what's happening here.

by Texas Gray Wolf 2008-04-08 11:20AM | 0 recs
Do you have a link to the SUSA poll?

I saw the newspaper story but can't find the poll on the SUSA website anywhere.

by GFORD 2008-04-08 11:29AM | 0 recs
Re: PA: Two new polls show same trends.

You didn't happen to notice the new SUSA poll which has Clnton up 18, did you? Maybe something just got in your eye. SUSA has been the number one rated poll service this primary season, so overlook it at your peril.

by pollbuster 2008-04-08 08:57AM | 0 recs
Re: PA: Two new polls show same trends.

PLus, isn't SUSA a robocall? You have to wonder if there is some kind of Bradley effect here which would explain the discrepancy...

by animated 2008-04-08 09:10AM | 0 recs
Re: PA: Two new polls show same trends.

No crosstabs or # of responders for that SUSA poll, at least none I could find on NBC's website. You do have to admit it seems to fly in the face of the trends from every other polling group.

by TheSilverMonkey 2008-04-08 09:54AM | 0 recs
Re: PA: Two new polls show same trends.

You want cross tabs, here they are, they are not difficult to find. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=c79e5bab-a424-49f6-86d6-50c61c f729b7

by pollbuster 2008-04-08 10:22AM | 0 recs
Re: PA: Two new polls show same trends.

When I first saw this poll, it hadn't been posted on the SurveyUSA site yet. Looking at these crosstabs, it seems strange that they have Obama losing both the youth vote and SE Pennsylvania (Philly and it's suburbs) by pretty significant margins. Everything seems to point to this poll being a big outlier.

by TheSilverMonkey 2008-04-08 12:09PM | 0 recs
Re: PA: Two new polls show same trends.

I heard the same type stories about SUSA being an outlier in California,Ohio, and Massachusetts.

by pollbuster 2008-04-08 03:04PM | 0 recs
Re: PA: Two new polls show same trends.

Funny how you don't address anything I said. I heard those same comments about SUSA's accuracy in MI and TX.

by TheSilverMonkey 2008-04-08 04:34PM | 0 recs
Re: PA: Two new polls show same trends.

You heard the same thing about Michigan, that's amazing. I don't even recall SUSA having a MI poll. And in Texas, SUSA had it in a virtual dead heat. Hillary won by 4 points, which was within the margin of error.

by pollbuster 2008-04-08 07:36PM | 0 recs
Re: PA: Two new polls show same trends.
I meant MO - too many damn states that start with the letter M. Look, SUSA has been pretty on the ball with most states, but not every one. You have to admit, looking at the crosstabs, that there's something fishy here. I mean, Obama dropped 18 points among the 35 to 49 crowd in a week for no particular reason? It's not like there was any scandal on his side. Then they have him losing Philadelphia and it's suburbs (population around 40% black - seriously you think he's going to LOSE that region?) and then they have him losing the youth vote (18-34). He's also lost 10% of the black vote in a week (keep in mind, these polls tend to be off base about the black vote for Obama at least 10 points practically every time).
It's just highly suspect, and for some good reasons. I'm not trying to fight you or go on the uber-defensive here - Hillary is going to win PA, in no way am I arguing otherwise, but there's no reason for anyone here to engage in fantasy about what the margin will be. Even Ohio she only won by 10 points, and that was in the middle of NAFTA-gate.
by TheSilverMonkey 2008-04-08 09:38PM | 0 recs
Re: PA: Two new polls show same trends.

I believe you, you sound very credible and you bring up some solid points. One day this will all be over, and we could all be on the same side again.

by pollbuster 2008-04-09 05:14AM | 0 recs
Re: PA: Two new polls show same trends.

Arguably, we're still on the same side now, there's just a bit of family infighting ;-). I hear you though, I think lots of us on both sides are hoping for some peace. It seems to me, and I could be way off base here, that the overall tone seems to be tipping in favor of tranquility - here and elsewhere.

by TheSilverMonkey 2008-04-09 10:17AM | 0 recs
Re: PA: Two new polls show same trends.

I have noticed that too. I think a lot of people are showing a lot of primary fatigue, and want to use their energies against the republicans. Hopefully, soon, we will not only be the same family, but we will be one big happy family.

by pollbuster 2008-04-09 06:19PM | 0 recs
Re: PA: Two new polls show same trends.

Is that all quoted text? Where is the diary?

by owl06 2008-04-08 09:07AM | 0 recs
Poll-pointing is Silly

Folks,

Cherry-picking individual polls is a waste of time.  

Week by week, the partisans for each candidate select the most favorable polls while dismissing the least favorable ones...sometimes reversing the praise/criticisms of the prior week!

I am sick to dang death of this stuff, and have been even while Obama is gaining momentum.  I no longer care about primary polling, and am now more concerend with the GE.  I suggest we ALL adopt that mindset.

by a gunslinger 2008-04-08 09:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Poll-pointing is Silly

Thanks for pointing that out...

I kind of miss the times when people were declaring en masse that polls were not reliable.  Now they seem to be sacred depending which one it is, what it says, and who you are backing.

Let's face it, there is no polling data as reliable as an election... or, in this case, a primary.  I realize we have an insatiable need to know what is going to happen before it happens, but none of these polls are truly going to be reliable.

We will just have to wait.  Unless they decide to cancel election day and just do polls instead.

by JenKinFLA 2008-04-08 09:39AM | 0 recs
Re: Poll-pointing is Silly

Not everyone is dismissing the polls they don't like, but many people are pointing out that SUSA has been the best polling service this primary season, and that is something that most people have accepted as fact.

by pollbuster 2008-04-08 10:26AM | 0 recs
Re: Poll-pointing is Silly

And of course NEXT week, or at some point in the nextfew weeks, the SUSA poll shows Obama within 10...just wait, there will be plenty, PLENTY of folks finding fault with them.  It has become, I am sorry to say, the nature of the beast.  

Clearly HRC has time to turn it around, but she has had a couple of tough weeks.  Maybe the demotion of the disaster maven will help somewhat.  I'll trust media dialoge and facts on the ground (audience, attendence, obsevations) more than I'll trust ANY poll at this point.  It has been a hard cycle on pollsters fer sher.

by a gunslinger 2008-04-08 11:14AM | 0 recs
Re: Poll-pointing is Silly

"And of course NEXT week, or at some point in the nextfew weeks, the SUSA poll shows Obama within 10...just wait, there will be plenty, PLENTY of folks finding fault with them.  It has become, I am sorry to say, the nature of the beast."

Well, who needs polls when you could see the future so well.:)

by pollbuster 2008-04-08 12:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Poll-pointing is Silly

I call 'em like I HAVE seen, and DO see 'em.  I have seen this in action almost every other day.

by a gunslinger 2008-04-08 12:54PM | 0 recs
No trend in Rasmussen

It was +5 Clinton a week ago.

It's +5 Clinton today.  

Is it your contention that no trend is a trend?

Obama is still at ~41% in the RCP poll of polls.  If he does not get to at least 44% in that metric, he will lose by 10+

See OH, VA, MA, CA, WI, and NY, among others, to illustrate why the "challengers" highest average polling number is significant.  Notice how in each of the examples, the challenger (losing candidate) finished right around the final RCP average.  If you have a reason to think this will change in PA, I am open to hearing it.

VA: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/va/virginia_democratic_pr imary-507.html

MA: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/ma/massachusetts_democrat ic_primary-539.html

CA: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/ca/california_democratic_ primary-259.html

OH: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primar y-263.html

WI: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/wi/wisconsin_democratic_p rimary-270.html

NY: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/ny/new_york_democratic_pr imary-265.html

by reggie44pride 2008-04-08 09:39AM | 0 recs
Re: No trend in Rasmussen

"Notice how in each of the examples, the challenger (losing candidate) finished right around the final RCP average."

Would that be the RCP averages two weeks before those primaries as you are now proposing for this one?

Obviously, polls aren't primaries and citing them means nothing but something to chatter about until the real votes happen.

Keep chattering!

by Kobi 2008-04-08 10:09AM | 0 recs
Re: No trend in Rasmussen

I made no claim that polls two weeks out would predict the final outcome.

I said to pay attention to the RCP poll of poll average for Obama going into the last two weeks.  As the "challenger" in the state, that number is rather predictive, as you could see from the poll of poll results from a variety of states.  

Not sure why you felt inclined to be snarky and read into things where there are none.  I am not a strong supporter of either candidate, just interested in the primary more generally.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-08 11:52AM | 0 recs
Re: No trend in Rasmussen

Not snarkey. Just highly skeptical of poll interpretations. Every penny ante pundit thinks he can predict the future based on surveys of the present.

by Kobi 2008-04-08 11:56AM | 0 recs
Re: No trend in Rasmussen

It's hardly speculation to point out that in the suite of states I showed, and some I did not show (like MS), the challenger's "high mark" is very predictive come election day.  I made my case with both Obama and Clinton wins in states they were favored to win.  All you did was respond with "but polls are meaningless!" drivel.

If that's your contribution, fine, but don't pretend it's especially intellectual or meaningful.

by reggie44pride 2008-04-08 12:16PM | 0 recs
Re: No trend in Rasmussen

It means nothing but the chattering.

by Kobi 2008-04-08 12:21PM | 0 recs
Re: No trend in Rasmussen

Stimulating contribution.  You should get paid for your great political insight!

by reggie44pride 2008-04-08 01:16PM | 0 recs
Re: No trend in Rasmussen

Some call reading tea leaves insight.

by Kobi 2008-04-08 01:23PM | 0 recs
Re: PA: Two new polls show same trends.

Rasmussen poll ALSO notes that her past decreasing trend has stopped and she is stable.

You also shouldn't forget the SUSA poll which came out today that shows Clinton with an 18 point lead.  Even if you don't to rely on it, you need to include it in.

by cjbardy 2008-04-08 01:09PM | 0 recs

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