• comment on a post P & VP Thread over 5 years ago

    I think it's safe to say that McCain just won the VP-selection contest decisively over Obama.  

    Biden is an old, boring, DC insider, and more qualified than the top half of the ticket.  Palin is new, about as far from DC as you can get, and more conservative than McCain, shoring up his support on the right.  

    Her inexperience would be a liability given McCain's age and health, but bringing it up risks raising the issue of Obama's inexperience.

    Obviously a pro-drilling pro-life red state governor isn't going to attract many Hillary supporters, but McCain wasn't going to anyway.

    Palin may also serve to draw back some of the Ron Paul crowd, which was otherwise leaning toward Barr.  Keep in mind that Ron Paul topped double digits in the Republican primaries in over a dozen states.  

     

  • comment on a post The possiblility of a Gore-led ticket over 6 years ago

    What Florida and Michigan problem?  The rules were made known in advance, Florida and Michigan decided to break them anyway, and they were punished severely (probably too severely, but what's done is done.)

    Al Gore on the top of the ticket?  That would be comical, and make the Democratic Party a joke.  No disrespect for Gore, but a dark horse convention candidate is for when there aren't any strong candidates already in the race, and the Democrats have two already.

  • comment on a post Dem contest & states over 6 years ago

    I agree with your predictions, except for Oregon.  It's a big anti-war, progressive state (like Washington), and will go for Obama by a significant margin.

    And in no sense of the word can you say that Clinton "won" Michigan, unless you mean by defeating Kucinich and Gravel.

  • comment on a post The problem of Obama's public financing 'pledge' over 6 years ago

    McCain's the one with a character issue here.  He signed up for public financing in the primary when he was flat broke, but is now trying to weasel out of it on a technicality (he hasn't actually received any of the funds he signed up for yet) since the money is flowing in with the nomination all but locked up.

  • Why would anyone count Florida and Michigan????  I can see the case for reinstating Florida's delegation, or part of it, because at least all of the candidates were on the ballot there.  There's no possible case for Michigan's vote to count, since Obama and Edwards weren't on the ballot there.

    The media shouldn't be reporting the super delegate "count" at all.  It has been skewing the news, and making casual voters believe that Senator Clinton was still in the "lead", despite having won fewer delegates in states that have actually voted.  It's deceptive, especially given that super delegates are not pledged and could easily change their support between now and the convention.

  • comment on a post Ron Paul '08: A Primary vs Caucus Results Case Study over 6 years ago

    Good post.  One update -- CNN shows Ron Paul at 7% in the New York primary.

    The difference in caucus results vs. primary results is a reflection of the people participating in each.  Primary voters are generally less serious, less committed, and less well-informed.  They are more apt to include people who rely on the media to tell them which two or three candidates have a legitimate shot to win, and to constrain their choices to those few.  They only have to show up for a few minutes to vote.

    Caucus goers are generally more committed, more informed, and more dedicated to a particular candidate in advance.  They have to plan to attend at a particular time, and stay for a few hours.  Casual voters don't bother.

    Ron Paul had more actual grassroots volunteers, and they were much better organized, than any other Republican candidate.  They planned for weeks in advance to participate, and to identify and encourage other supporters to attend.  With much lower turnout as a percentage of the population, those efforts were more effective in caucus states.

  • I think Ron Paul's four money bombs, totaling $13 million, qualify as "right-wing attempts to raise money online."

    And wait until you see the money bomb that launches his independent bid, courtesy of all those $600 stimulus checks his supporters will be getting in the mail....

  • comment on a post Huckabee Lives! over 6 years ago

    Don't worry though -- McCain will be easy to beat in November.  The GOP base doesn't like him, and you just need to play the "100 years in Iraq" tape on a few commercials.

  • comment on a post Huckabee Lives! over 6 years ago

    Kind of embarrassing for Sean Hannity, who said Huckabee had no reason to still be in the race today on the radio, and basically accused him of colluding with McCain.

    At this rate, Romney is more likely than Huck to drop out after today, and conservatives might be more likely to rally around Huckabee to try to stop McCain.

  • comment on a post Should We Be Rooting Against McCain Or For Him? over 6 years ago

    I think McCain would be easier to beat than Romney.  McCain is old and a Washington insider, at a time when people are looking for someone with energy and new ideas.

    Don't underestimate Mitt though -- he has a very compelling record of personal achievement, he looks good on TV, and most people don't mind flip-flops, as we've seen from previous elections.

  • What is great is seeing all the political experts keep making excuses when Ron Paul does much better than they predicted.

    Most thought he wouldn't make it past Iowa, if he got that far.  When he started raising top tier money, they grudgingly said he might hit 5-10% in a few states.

    None of them predicted that he would hit 14% in Nevada and place second, or that he would beat Giuliani in almost every early primary.

  • Obama has already proven strong caucus-organizing abilities, in Iowa.  Hillary seems to do better in high-turnout states like New Hampshire, where more of the voters are low information types, who don't realize that she voted for the war and the Patriot Act, and plans to leave tens of thousands of troops in Iraq indefinitely.

  • Nevada:

    Obama - 35
    Edwards - 31
    Clinton - 30
    Kucinich - 4

    Romney - 32
    McCain - 23
    Thompson - 15
    Paul - 14
    Huckabee - 9
    Hunter - 4
    Giuliani - 3

    South Carolina:

    Huckabee - 28
    Thompson - 22
    Romney - 19
    McCain - 16
    Paul - 10
    Giuliani - 3
    Hunter - 2

  • comment on a post An OUTPOURING of Support for Draft Bloomberg over 6 years ago

    So much for the oft-refuted claim that Unity08 was simply a front for a Bloomberg independent run.  Oh, wait.

    The first sign that things weren't going well over there was when they polled their membership, and wouldn't announce how many members they had.  They polled a subset of the membership (around 2000 people), but didn't say what percentage that represented.

    From a few brief visits over there, it appeared the most popular candidates among the actual Unity08 members were Ron Paul, Dennis Kucinich, and Mike Gravel, with some support for Obama and McCain.

    Unity08's "closing up shop" email even mentioned Obama favorably, saying that he wasn't running on the same old divisive left/right rhetoric.

    Maybe Bloomberg can hire some supporters.

  • "The focus group loved Fred Thompson, hated Ron Paul."

    The focus group always hates Ron Paul, because Fox News gets to decide who is in the focus group.

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