But the media, even reportes for the home town local newspaper attending C-SPAN events are now quoting the common wisdom, Bush is way ahead. So the ploy worked.
Bush and Rove are all about the BIG lie.
They know how to make it work for them, and the media has been complicit. As have naive Democrats who tend to give the media like Newsweek and Time credit before the fact for being imparital and rigourous in their methods.
They are not.
The media, its owners and its polling organizations are actively working for a specific outcome, and their reporters know who pays their salaries and what they should to do get ahead.
You are spending an awfull amount of brain power on these polls, and they are just not that accurate.
Your comments about needing two to five times as many respondants as is the current practice to improve the accuracy to an acceptable window (in additiona to other means like normalizing the data to the population who will vote) are something that I agree with. The assumptions polster make about sampling 600 - 800 people and that would be sufficient to determine the results of an election invovling 100 million people which is 7 weeks away, in a very diverse population, with a margin of error of 4 - 5 % is rediculous.
The other point is that there is no firewall between the polling organization and the organization or interest paying for the poll. What this leads to is the sloppy handeling of data, so the buyer is pleased with the results. This is also true with so-called news organizations which have a interest in one out-come or the other.
Polls have become one more propaganda weapon to work against the oppostion, as the GOP have done recently.
As everyone knows but seemed to forget this past week, its all about surpressing the opposition vote with polling data, and that is exactly what we have been seeing from the Mayberry Machiavell.
This is not the time to get week knees and uncertain of what we are committed to doing.
I think there is a definite bright side to this, Kerry really does need to go on the attack against Bush to win.