New Poll: Wisconsin stays blue, Clinton runs stronger than Obama

Wisconsin has looked uncharacteristically blue in presidential polls of the past few months, and the latest SUSA installment confirms that Democrats has a head-start in the general election. And unlike yesterday's Iowa poll in which Clinton ran significantly behind Obama when matched-up against Republicans, she appears slightly more electable here, one more reminder that electability is very hard to determine among Democrats.

Full poll numbers and other polls from the day here, at CampaignDiaries.com

  • John McCain is, as is so often the case, the strongest Republican. He only trails Clinton 47% to 45%, and is the only Republican to win any match-up, leading Obama 47% to 43%.

  • Clinton has good leads against the other candidates: 49% to 42% against Rudy Giuliani, 53% to 37% against Mitt Romney, and 53% to 36% against Mike Huckabee.

  • Obama leads Rudy 47% to 42%, Romney 50% to 38%, and Huckabee 52% to 35%.
Link to the poll. For comparison, here is SUSA's poll from last month. Many states that have been polled have shown a tight race in 2008 regardless of how partisan the state was in the past. Wisconsin was one of the tightest states in both 2000 and 2004, and Kerry's winning it was actually a bit of a surprise. But this might be part of a trend that states like Wisconsin and Minnesota are going back to their progressive roots -- look at the Klochubar-Kennedy Senate race of 2006.

Read more political news and analysis at CampaignDiaries.com

Tags: Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, poll, SUSA, Wisconsin (all tags)

Comments

17 Comments

Wisconsin is my birth state.

I love that state.  Cleanest air in the country.

by bookgrl 2007-11-17 06:44PM | 0 recs
in Iowa a campaign is taking place

in wisconson it isn't----the states are pretty similar in partison performance. Iowa's GE trial heats more likley resemble the general election perfomance of the candidates. Hillary will be a very difficult candidate to push over the 48% mark.

by nevadadem 2007-11-17 06:56PM | 0 recs
No she won't. Hillary will clean house

in a general election.

by bookgrl 2007-11-17 06:59PM | 0 recs
Re: in Iowa a campaign is taking place


Yeah, less than 1% difference in Democratic performance in 2004 = totally different dynamic.

You wish.

by killjoy 2007-11-18 10:46AM | 0 recs
Re: in Iowa a campaign is taking place

I take issue with this.  There is most certainly a campaign taking place.

John Edwards has around 40 endorsements from elected Democrats and Democratic Party leaders, ranging from Congressman Dave Obey (one of the most respected and well-like Dems in WI history) to party chair Joe Wineke to Madison Mayor Dave Cieslewicz to lots of state assembly reps and senators.  Edwards has more endorsements than anyone in Wisconsin.

At the DPW convention in June, John Edwards won the straw poll by a 2-1 margin over all other candidates, thanks to strong support and good organizing by the grassroots campaign.  At Fighting Bob Fest in September, the largest political gathering in the state and place where progressives (especially activists) make up most of the attendance, John won the straw poll by a 2-1 margin over Obama and Hillary and beat all contenders, including Dennis Kucinich (he always has a big following at FBF).  

Around the state, local grassroots organizing leaders are building a campaign infrastructure that will and have already helped spread the message.  At UW-Madison, the Students for John Edwards chapter has put on multiple events with surrogates for the campaign and has organized actions in and around the Madison area, in conjunction with other grassroots leaders.  And over the course of the spring and summer of 2007, only one campaign showed up at the Democratic Party events like the congressional district conventions - and they were at all but one event of note.  

John himself has been to Milwaukee for a couple of events, including an 800 person rally on a rainy and cold night in September.  Elizabeth has been to Madison.  And it looks like David Bonior will do an event in Madison within a month.  

And since June, volunteers have been organized to travel to Iowa to work on the campaign there, just about every other weekend - affecting the race there and building leaders to help run the grassroots campaign in the state as the focus shifts from the caucus.

The campaign for John Edwards is most certainly active in this state - but it's been at the grassroots.  Polling is not covering that.  In fact, the poll cited in this diary didn't even include JRE.  In the straw polling, John has won very clearly, and among the people who will affect the race, the leaders and activists.  When Wisconsin's primary rolls around in February, the campaign will have been built up to really play a role here and hopefully deliver Wisconsin's delegates for John Edwards.

by Peter from WI 2007-11-18 12:24PM | 0 recs
Re: New Poll: Wisconsin stays blue, Clinton runs s

Republicans took a beating on the state level here in Wisconsin last election. The Dems took over the state Senate, are close to taking over the state Assembly, and our Democratic governor was re-elected with a decent margin of victory. There is only 1 Republican that managed to win state-wide, and he barely won. I would think that the Democratic presidential nominee would have momentum here in '08.

by Bombay 2007-11-17 07:31PM | 0 recs
Re: New Poll: Wisconsin stays blue, Clinton runs s

And JB Van Hollen didn't win the AG's race...Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce beat Kathleen Falk.  In 2008 and 2010, we'll sweep this state and have Democrats back in power.

by Peter from WI 2007-11-18 12:25PM | 0 recs
Re: New Poll:

She should run stronger.  She's the most well-known candidate in the race.

How many times has Obama even set foot in Wisconsin?

by Namtrix 2007-11-17 07:38PM | 0 recs
Re: New Poll:

That's an unfair argument. Name recognition is one thing, having "set foot" is another. I don't think Hillary has gone to Wisconsin much lately either.

by LeftistAddiction 2007-11-17 08:35PM | 0 recs
Re: New Poll:

She has not yet been here.  Bill canceled an event a few months back.

by Peter from WI 2007-11-18 12:25PM | 0 recs
Re: New Poll:

He was in Madison once.  

by Peter from WI 2007-11-18 12:15PM | 0 recs
Re: New Poll:

He's also been to Milwaukee, I think.

by Bombay 2007-11-18 12:32PM | 0 recs
Re: New Poll:

I stand corrected - you are right.  Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett and Congresswoman Gwen Moore endorsed him there.

Also, I didn't note before that in 2005 and 2006, John Edwards made a visits to La Crosse, a couple to Madison (one for the Opportunity Rocks tour), and I believe one to central WI (Obey country) and Milwaukee.

by Peter from WI 2007-11-18 04:00PM | 0 recs
Re: New Poll: Wisconsin stays blue, Clinton runs s

You're taking two or three points and suggesting that means "Hillary is running STRONGER than Obama"? Either you don't know a hill of beans about polls or you're just trying to spin BS. I think a little bit of both. Barack has already come to Madison and Milwaukee and both times, he had to change the location due to overwhelming response of people buying tickets. I see a lot of support for Barack Obama out here and it is noticeable. Hillary? Not so much. BTW. I'm a Wisconsin resident. I've lived here for about five years. The only thing this poll indicates, is that Democrats can beat Republicans in Wisconsin.

Have a nice day.

by BlueDiamond 2007-11-18 04:29AM | 0 recs
Clinton runs stronger than Obama

Gotta love Wisconsin!

by lonnette33 2007-11-18 05:25AM | 0 recs
Re: New Poll: Wisconsin stays blue, Clinton runs s

Sen. Obama and Sen. Edwards have been to Milwaukee Twice, and Once, respecteively in 2006, and 2007, and Sen. Obama had a very large event at the UW-M campus in Madison  a few weeks ago.

by UWM College Democrat 2007-11-18 12:34PM | 0 recs
Re: New Poll: Wisconsin stays blue

I'd like to add that Wisconsin will be a very important state in 2008.  Our electoral votes are up for grabs, we'll return (for sure) 4 D's to the House (no senate races this time), have one very closely watched race in CD8 (Steve Kagen - a raging badass who could have easily joined the Blue Dogs and/or New Dems as a freshman from a Republican district, but turned them down and has been awesome on trade, ag, and economics issues), and we have a shot to pick up two state senate seats and the big daddy...returning Democratic control to the assembly.

I'm a newly-minted member of the state party exec committee and the chair of the 2nd CD Party (proud to be a Tammy Baldwin Democrat), and we're all gearing up to win back at least three assembly seats, so that we can move a progressive agenda in our state.  

Up and down the ticket, Wisconsin has a ton of opportunities to elect good Democrats and really get some solid progressives in place and moving that agenda forward.

by Peter from WI 2007-11-18 04:04PM | 0 recs

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