### How Democrats Win The White House

Democrats can win the White House, IF they get the majority of electoral votes.  Each state is assigned a number of electoral college votes, based on population.

'Blue' states are ones that commonly vote democratic.  'Red' states commonly vote Republican.  'Purple' states, also known as 'swing states', can be one by either party.  Purple states are the ones that each party wants to win to put them 'over the top'.

The way democrats can win the White House is to win all of our 'blue' states and as many of the 'purple' states as possible.  So, just as in any sporting event, you want to put your best player out there to win you as many points as possible.  Well, Hillary is that winner, and I have the figures to prove it........

I hope you have spreadsheet software to follow me. Here is a spreadsheet of electoral college numbers, and what states have been won thus far in the primaries:
http://florida-delegates.com/electoral.x ls

If I look at just blue states (ones we should win), Hillary would have a total of 120 electoral votes, to Obamas 63.  So, for our 'commonly won' states, she is our winner.

If I combine purple and blue states (our 'commonly won' states and ones we hope to have); Hillary would have a total of 198 electoral votes, to Obamas 123.  So, if we get lucky and win them all, she is, once again, our winner.

But, the key here is how does she do in purple (coveted) states, over him?  Well, I cannot include Michigan because that is totally up in the air.  I have, however, included Florida because she won that state, 'hands down'.  So, for purple states, Hillary has a total of 78, over Obamas 60.  Even if I took out Florida, she would win purple states by 1. So, once again, she is our winner.

Are you getting the 'pattern' here?  Winner, Winner, Winner....

##### Re: How Democrats Win The White House

new newsweek poll

Clinton 48

Mccain 46

Obama 46

Mccain 45

Clinton 44 / Obama 45 , clinton gains 11 points.

Interesting analysis , 69% want a joint ticket.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/119953

by lori 2008-03-07 10:19PM | 0 recs
##### Re: How Democrats Win The White House

Seems like Hillary is the ONE.

by gunner 2008-03-07 10:23PM | 0 recs
##### Re: How Democrats Win The White House

SUSA state by state matchups.

Obama beats McCain with more electoral college votes than Hillary does, and he does it while carrying northwest red states.

Hillary, on the other hand, wins, with fewer electoral college votes, just barely, with the usual red/blue divide.

Just for the record, you do know that Bill never got more than 50% in either '92 or '96, right?  He won with 43% in 92, and I think 47% in '96.  Ross Perot drew votes from the Republicans both times.

(And if you can remember back that far, he ran on an anti-NAFTA platform, attacking both Republicans and Bill Clinton for their NAFTA plan.  But, oh, Hillary was secretly anti-NAFTA, I guess.)

by Dumbo 2008-03-08 01:33AM | 0 recs
##### Re: How Democrats Win The White House

You're wrong about Obama winning more electoral votes than Clinton. That's just out of touch with reality. Obama cannot win in a general election. He ought to start lowering his sense of entitlement, and tampering his arrogance. A VP slot is his best chance to earn experience and build a base for a future run; but honestly, I cannot see how anyone thinks he is qualified to be President right now.

He's all hat, no cattle, and Texans weren't fooled by that cowboy hat either.

lol...

by Tennessean 2008-03-08 05:07AM | 0 recs
##### Re: How Democrats Win The White House

That's a ridiculous analysis.

Primary voting has no correlation to GE voting.

Straws.

You;re grasping at straws.

by Walt Starr 2008-03-08 03:28AM | 0 recs
##### Re: How Democrats Win The White House

While I can see a Clinton victory, Obama can and will lose the GE.  There are valid reason why this is so.  Obama cannot consolidate the democratic party.  He does not win down economic voters, he does not win security voters, he does not win Hispanics.  So if bama gets the nomination we all lose.  His over sized ego will not let him take the VP slot and get the experience he lacks and without that experience he just cannot win the WH.  So he is standing in his own way.  Typical.  Reminds me of the guy who comes into the meeting late without proper preparation takes over the meeting and then tries to take credit for all the hard work of everyone else.  I know guys just like Obama, smart, but not willing to do the hard work, expect everyone to just see his own brilliance and his need for the spot light.  He hasn't got enough experience to actually win the WH. But won't even realize his own deficit. Not to worry the voters in the GE will, but at the expense of the democrats taking the WH.  Shame really.

by democrat voter 2008-03-08 04:37AM | 0 recs
##### Re: I So Agree, democrat voter...

Even Chris Matthews said one morning, while chatting with Pat Buchanan that he thinks Clinton could beat McCain--narrowly perhaps--but that with Obama as the nominee, it's "a big risk."

I don't think Obama can do it; the Pew Poll shows a lot of defections from the Democrats with Obama as the nominee (20% is the Pew poll number, but others have said 25%).

That is a very big chunk of voters Democrats could lose to McCain. Yes, the word "could" is operative here, because, in truth, the general election voting patterns are different from primary voting patters, particularly this year when caucuses have played such a huge part in the primary.

But, thinking that Obama will win ANY red states--even those in the West--is LUDICROUS. He just won't win them people! So, get that delusion a pill and forget about it. There is some speculation by very experienced and knowledgeable political analysts that Obama would lose New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, and a host of other states that DEMOCRATS NORMALLY WIN--including California. Some people may scoff at that--but they don't know anything about Californa, apparently, because they forget that California routinely elects REPUBLICAN governors.

The fantasy some people will indulge in to defend their delusions about Obama is frankly, astonishing!

Take a look at these pictures and you will see that Obama campaign strategy to win the nomination could translate into a blow-out for McCain in November. Just a tiny glimpse into the future for delusional Obamabots:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/pol itics/interactives/campaign08/primaries/ tx/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/pol itics/interactives/campaign08/primaries/ oh/

by Tennessean 2008-03-08 04:56AM | 0 recs
##### Re: How Democrats Win The White House

Caveat on the previous. Florida would not be a state that Democrats normally win these days, I did not mean to include Florida in that column.

But, Clinton can win Florida; Obama cannot. McCain beats Obama in Florida by double-digits in polls.

Here's some analysis:

Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Utah, Idaho, Nebraska, North Dakota, Kansas, Alaska....Wyoming, Mississippi...

Add up all the states he has won in his historic drive to become the nominee, including all of those small and deeply "red" Republican states where the Obama supporters boast of their candidate's transcendental appeal, and so far Obama has won in places representing 193 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

Add up Clinton's victories thus far and she has triumphed in states representing 263 electoral votes.

Of course, some states in Clinton's column -- Texas comes most readily to mind -- that have a large trove of Electoral College votes are highly unlikely to wind up Democratic in the fall.

But the same holds true for Obama, whose strength in southern Democratic primaries has rested on the huge margins he has run up among African-American voters. African-Americans are a crucial constituency for Democrats, but their votes in recent contests haven't been enough to win such states as Alabama, South Carolina or Georgia.

[...]

So how has Obama fared in those states that are the crucial building blocks of a Democratic general election strategy? He's won his home state of Illinois, plus Wisconsin, Washington and Minnesota. Together, these states account for 51 electoral votes.

Clinton has won her home state of New York, as well as California, New Jersey and Michigan, representing a total of 118 electoral votes.

There is no papering over the depth of the problem Obama faced there. He won only five of the state's 88 counties, an inauspicious foundation for a general election campaign.

Clinton trounced him among Catholic voters, 63 percent-36 percent, according to exit polls. She beat him among voters in every income category and bested him by 14 points among those making less than \$50,000 annually.

There is a reason some states are called general election "battlegrounds." It is because partisan identification is roughly even, or because certain groups in the electorate, such as Catholics, Hispanics or blue-collar whites, switch their allegiances -- or split their votes. That's why Clinton made so much in her victory speech about the "bellwether" nature of Ohio: "It's a battleground state. It's a state that knows how to pick a president. And no candidate in recent history, Democrat or Republican, has won the White House without winning the Ohio primary," she said.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article s/2008/03/tough_math_on_the_democratic_s .html

by Tennessean 2008-03-08 05:03AM | 0 recs