Great Rhodes Cook Article on Crystal Ball
by LanceS, Thu Nov 13, 2008 at 03:58:46 AM EST
Rhodes Cook has a great article up at the Crystal Ball: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystal ball/article.php?id=FRC2008111301
He talks about the demise of the Republican lock and points out that the main driver has been the "big states", those with more than 15 EVs. Some of the younger folks on this site may not remember, but it wasn't that long ago that some of the bluest states weren't blue at all.
Consider, in the last 5 elections California, New York, Illinois, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have gone 25 for 25 to the Democrats. Yet, as Cook shows, in the prior five elections those same 5 states were only 3 for 25 for the Democrats. That's why Reagan and Bush I were able to roll up such huge EC victories - they dominated in the big states that we count on now.
Excellent read - please check the article out!