I am now in total agreement with several major political pundits like Dee Dee Myers, Pat Buchanan, Al Hunt, & Dick Morris regarding the GE chances of Sen. Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee in November.
First of all, Democrats as a party go into November 2008 with a big advantage never seen by either party since Reagan in 1984.
In fact, any other conventional democratic candidate whether Dodd, Biden, H. Clinton, Clark, Bayh, Edwards, Gore & even Kerry would be "HEAVILY" favored to win it all in November 2008.
Worse Economy, Worse war since Vietnam, worse Gas Prices since the 70's, highest foreclosures & job losses in two decades.
Its an Almost Perfect Scenario for the political opposition. In this case, the democrats.
This is probably as sure as any democrat will ever get. As close to Reagan's win over Mondale.
But will all that said, it looks like the democratic party has decided to go with the "Most Unconvention Candidate" ever in U.S. presidential history.
These pundits have said.... Make No Mistake about it....
With Obama as the Democratic nominee...
This Presidential election for 2008 with Obama as the nominee would turn this race into a REFERENDUM on Barack Obama. ( Most voters unless you're a die hard Bush Republican have already made their own conclusions about the failure of the Bush Presidency)
With the Unconventional Indentity wrapped politics of Obama, the only question for November is if american voters would vote for a candidate who is virtually unknown,untested, very little experience, an african-american liberal with an unsual name Barack Hussein Obama, but offers a Brand New promise of a New Kind of politics & hope.
Or, do they go with the safe, traditional candidate in the old, very experienced, independent minded John McCain.
It does not matter if you are a die hard Obama fan. One thing every democrat can agree on is the Obama candidacy in November would without a doubt be the "Highest Risk" taken of any democratic candidate in our bench.
Why take the risky candidate & gamble when we are heavily favored to win ? I don't know. Don't ask me why. Ask Nancy Pelosi & Ted Kennedy.
Why Most Risky? Well, the obvious...
a) Very Thin Resume ( even thinner than George W. Bush)
b) to his uncommon non-western name of Barack Hussein Obama
c) to his roots of growing up with a father & step father who are muslim ( with the U.S. being at war with two muslim nations)
d) to his Race as an African-American
e) to his less explored past since he is virtually a rookie in the national political stage
Can he win in November? Oh Absolutely ! Any candidate that Democrats field in November will have a fair shot at winning it all. The odds are just simply stacked against the GOP today.
But can he also lose ? Oh extremely possible! Can he end up losing by a big margin particularly in the Electoral college? Of course, very very possible.
Since Obama will be an unconventional candidate never seen before, anything unconventional happening is very possible.
See, with the conventional democratic candidates, this November will be Much More about the Bush Record & the Republican Party. The GOP will be at the defensive.
But with Obama, this election will be much more about Barack Obama himself rather than McCain or Bush.
Most if not all americans know who McCain is. Millions of americans have seen & followed him over the many years of his service.
The prediction that I have is in agreement with the pundits I mentioned above :
Obama will either win Big across america & carry not only blue states but carry states like Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, & Missouri.
Obama will lose by an electoral landslide in November. He would lose even traditional Blue states like PA,NJ,NH,MA combined with being swept om battleground states like OH,FL,NM,NV,IA,WI,MN,CO.
It would be either a blowout win or a blowout loss with Obama as the head of the ticket.
It would either be a Bill Clinton 1996 type of electoral college victory or a 1988 Michael Dukakis type of electoral massive landslide defeat.
This won't be a close electoral college election either way.
Either places like NJ,PA,MA,,MO,NM, NH,IA,CO,VA All go for Obama on election night & we celebrate the biggest victory for Democrats in many decades OR we just Paid the Most Expensive Price ever as a political party for the sake of making history by nominating the 1st black person.
Either way, our party will never be the same again after the 2008 Sen. Obama show.