The Value of BlogPAC and ActBlue

Personally, I've experienced the value of both BlogPAC and ActBlue and would like to encourage those that may wonder what's up with the project to check it out and donate.

I used to be the primary editor of the Burnt Orange Report in Texas, one of today's announced recipients of BlogPAC money to pay our hosting for the year. Actions like that help to reduce our overhead costs, allowing us to help fund our direct e-mail campaign (which raised thousands last year for local directed Student GOTV projects). That's a direct benefit and for just a couple hundred dollars that could be directed to other projects for instance, we were able to make the difference in putting one more Democrat into the statehouse and pick up a seat on a Circuit Court of Appeals in Austin.

Funding ActBlue allows for some great things as well. With the tips, direct donations, and recurring donations like those from this page, it not only helps to activate more states for down-ballot contributions (Virgina is on and Mississippi is coming next) but add talented forward thinking folks to the staff. One of those happens to be me and having just graduated, I couldn't be more excited. Also brought on board this month was Nate Thames another recent grad, activist, and blogger from Kansas. Together we're helping to make new projects happen and get way ahead for the 07-08 cycle.

This fundraising project isn't about me or ActBlue or BlogPAC though. It's about you- we just get to work to make things possible to empower any and every Democrat possible.

So Donate to the BlogPAC/ActBlue page and become a recurring contributor. It's a new generation of ideas and activism that you can make possible.

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TX-23 SUSA Poll Results

Joining up with WOAI-TV, Survey USA has released a public poll of TX-23.

Filtering: 1,000 Registered Voters from Texas's 23rd Congressional District, chosen using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle International, were interviewed 12/1/06 through 12/3/06. Of them, 471 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters. Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.6%

Bonilla (R) 53%
Rodriguez (D) 46%
Undecided 1%

Bonilla gets 70% of White votes. Rodriguez gets 72% of Hispanic votes. In SurveyUSA's turnout model, 59% of likely runoff voters are white, 36% are Hispanic. If Hispanics, who are 55% of the population in TX 23, make up more than 36% of those who vote in the Runoff, the contest will be closer than SurveyUSA's numbers here show.

Bonilla gets 94% of Republican votes. Rodriguez gets 89% of Democratic votes. Independents split. Bonilla wins by 25 points among higher-income voters, and by 15 points among middle-income voters. Rodriguez wins by 25 points among lower-income voters.

The bolded section is key. Hispanic turnout in Texas as shown on November 7th under performs the registration levels. But this is a low-turnout runoff election. Trying to predict which side is going to turnout is indeed the mystery.

As it stands with the early vote in Bexar County, 48% of the vote is coming from the heavily Hispanic southside locations and 52% from the more anglo northwest. That's just one county, though the epicenter of voter turnout. And you never know, Election Day could still change.

Donate to Ciro
Make GOTV Calls for Ciro
Blockwalk for Ciro

TX-23: San Antonio Weekend Early Vote Good for Ciro

LA-02 and FL-13 are not the only elections stll going on right now--Chris

Unknown to some, Bexar County, home to potentially 70% of the TX-23 Congressional Runoff vote, held 2 days of weekend early voting after LULAC won a federal lawsuit (pdf) against Republican Gov. Rick Perry. I've compiled the returns to date below, dividing the sites by where each candidate is suspected to be strongest. A map of these sites in the order listed is here for a visual representation- Democrat Ciro Rodriguez's stronghold being the South Side of San Antonio (marked with *s).

Early Vote LocationSatSunTotal*Bexar Justice Center15924CPS Energy (Military)326199525First Baptist Church20993302*Maury Maverick Library316148464Pecan Valley Elementary301176477*Shavano Baptist Church568302870*South Park Mall335251586TOTAL207011783248

*Southside (Ciro-D)194459.9%Northwest (Rep. Bonilla-R)130440.1%

This is very good news as many of the south side precincts, Ciro's base for over a decade, are up to 95% Hispanic and equally as Democratic but historically low in turnout. The fact that the southern sites are doing this well in the primary battleground county is a welcome surprise.

Help us expand our majority with a seat that's easy to defend and help the DCCC save resources for 2008.

Make GOTV Phone Calls for Ciro
Donate to Ciro Rodriguez
Visit Ciro's Brand New Website
Watch the DCCC Ad for Ciro

TX-23: Online Phone Bank Now Active for Ciro

An activist's work is never done--Chris

TrueBlueAction.com announces ciro.onlinephonebanking.com is up and running!

OnlinePhoneBanking the most efficient and effective way for folks anywhere in the state (or country) to help Democrat Ciro Rodriguez defeat Republican Henry Bonilla. The netroots worked hard for Ciro last time, and with this new tool, we can turn netroots passion into grassroots action!

Learn more about TX-23: Democrat Ciro Rodriguez v Republican Henry Bonilla

Make simple calls to voters in any precinct in TX-23 to identify Democrats for GOTV, from the comfort of your home, right now, using OnlinePhoneBanking's tools. Choose any precinct, and if you want, choose any demographic in that precinct - women, men, seniors, youth, anyone, and more. TrueBlueAction provides tools, scripts and data, you provide the volunteer effort and the data that helps Democrats!

Click here to make calls at Ciro.OnlinePhoneBanking.com

More info at LatinosForTexas.com, and TrueBlueAction.com

TX-23: Election Day Set for Dec 12th

The election date has been set for Tuesday December 12th for the District 23 Congressional Runoff between Democrat Ciro Rodriguez and Republican Rep. Henry Bonilla. Early Voting is set to run for just one week from December 4-8. It is the earliest day possible that it could have been called with the intent of giving the advantage to Henry Bonilla.

That's 3 weeks folks- 2 weeks until people start voting. As soon as ciro.onlinephonebanking.com is up and running, that will be the best way you can help us win in this tight electoral frame. Thousands of people making GOTV calls through this innovative new Texas tool can make a huge impact, especially if you cannot donate or come to the district. Otherwise, you can still donate to Ciro online or sign up to volunteer online.

TX-23: The DCCC is In

I am up for an early flight to Chicago. Light posting from me until Saturday--Chris

The DCCC is on the ground in TX-23. They have made amazing progress in getting Democrat Ciro Rodriguez to let them bring the game on for this short election period seeing as he's low on cash and institutional support. In other terms, Ciro has actually been on the phone doing call time.

Meghan Gaffney as some will remember from Paul Hackett's race in OH-02 is there now as well as Adrian Saenz, the DCCC's National Field Director (who if I'm not mistaken is from San Antonio as it is).

There is a poll in the field right now to determine where things stand on that front.

The election date cannot be set earlier than this Friday from what we've been told, though there is an expectation that Gov. Perry will do so then. There is an open state house seat in Texas which also has to have an election date set - a dead Republican incumbent beat her Democratic opponent on Nov 7th creating a vacancy which forces an open special election in HD-29 near Houston. That race is discussed in this post.

TX-23: Urestis Endorse Ciro

Good news out of TX-23. As of today, all of Ciro Rodriguez's former Democratic challengers in the open primary for TX-23 have now endorsed his campaign. Third place finisher Lukin Gilliland has offered up his northside campaign headquarters and staff.

"Henry Bonilla simply hasn't done his job to provide fresh ideas on how to protect our troops and bring an honorable peace to the war in Iraq. This runoff represents the people's chance to make changes in our Iraq policy and bring our troops home. Bonilla continues claiming to support our troops and yet he continues to send them into harm's way," said Albert Uresti.

"The Republican leadership has failed, as signaled by the November elections. Uniting the Democrats behind one democrat in this Congressional election is important so that we may continue the change of direction in our country," said Uresti.

The Urestis' endorsement is an important lynchpin in Rodriguez's plan to unite Democrats to defeat Republican Congressman Henry Bonilla. Senator Carlos Uresti represents a district that mirrors the boundaries of the 23rd Congressional District and Albert Uresti garnered the second most votes among Democrats in the special election contest that ended November 7, 2006.

Both brothers declare that Bonilla has not represented the concerns of the people of the 23rd Congressional District and believe Rodriguez provides an opportunity toward a new direction that puts people above the powerful special interests that have created a failed Republican government in Washington.

There's more...

TX-23: Midweek Update

I really should be writing more about this race, but I'm not. So here is a good diary on TX-23 to make up for my laziness--Chris

Below is an update from a friend in the know down in San Antonio.

Here's the lowdown as of sometime today... DCCC people were flying into town today to tell Ciro's what's going down.  If he liked it and was willing to play by the rules, fine.  If not, they're gonna pack it up.  I'll probably have more information on this meeting sometime later on this week.

From what I hear, the D-trip might just run this entire campaign as an independent expenditure.  Let Ciro try and raise some money so he can do his own thing, but run mail, field (the real field program) and any other media stuff through the d-trip. The DCCC is bringing in a top notch field person to run their show and that'll be that.  If there is one way to win this district with Ciro at the helm, this is basically the way to do it.

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(Updated) TX-23: Why the Wait? I'll Tell You

Update [2006-11-14 17:6:24 by KTinTX]:More information also in this post I made at Burnt Orange Report.

Of the 10 US House seats still not called, 2 of them are because they are actual run-off elections. Of the two, one is between 2 Democrats. The other, here in Texas, is between former Netroots candidate Ciro Rodriguez and Rep. Henry Bonilla, who is soon to lose his seat because of court ordered redistricting changes.

On November 7th, the Republican vote total was 48%. The combined Democratic total was 49% though only 20% was Ciro's. The seat is ready to be taken but some ask why there has been a wait.

A couple things. Right now I can tell you that there have been talks between the DCCC and folks in San Antonio. Someone has been asked to draw up a mail/TV/field budget for a one month long run-off campaign.  They have asked around in the district to see if there is someone to run a field program, one possibility being a friend of mine who just spent the last year helping to elect a Democratic state Senator and then hold his open state House seat last Tuesday.

In a couple days, I have been made aware that new online tools will become available for Democrats across Texas (and beyond) to call Democrats in TX-23 in a system very much like MoveOn's call for change. They were built by former state Rep. Glen Maxey who nearly took over the chairmanship of the Texas Democratic Party this June and just got done successfully running the Austin area coordinated campaign that picked up 1 state house seat, 1 Justice of the Peace, and 1 3rd Court of Appeals seat.  These are www.TrueBlueAction.com and www.OnlinePhoneBanking.com.

Netroots candidate John Courage, who just wrapped up his campaign this afternoon is in the process of transferring his San Antonio volunteers and staff to help out Ciro in any way they can. Former TX-23 candidate Lukin Gilliland has apparently offered up his campaign staff and team (whom I'm familiar with and are good folks) to help out Ciro as well.

Of course, the district won't be won without a lot of money and volunteer investment. As of now, that major commitment hasn't been declared yet. But I wanted to let folks know, that things are in the works.

TX: The Burnt Orange Political Report Launches

More fantastic local blogosphere work. I wish we had one of these in every state--Chris

The Burnt Orange Political Report (BOPR) is an analysis and prediction on the upcoming elections in Texas. We have looked at 207 races Texas voters will decide on this November 7, including all federal, statewide, state senate, and state house races. To learn more about the Burnt Orange Political Report, including the purpose and methodology of the project, you may read the Burnt Orange Political Report Explanation.

Burnt Orange Political Report: Overall Predictions

Former Congressman Nick Lampson's race in November will be the most closely watched race in Texas, and deseveredly so. Replacing indicted former Majority Leader Tom Delay will be a welcome sight for many Democrats in Texas and across the country.

We believe that Republican incumbents Henry Bonilla and Ron Paul may be surprised by their vote totals this Election day. If Chris Bell can't capture the hearts and minds of Democrats this November (and if Democrats aren't willing to open their hearts and minds to Bell in return), then we will likely see another sweep of the Republican statewide ticket. Any changes in the Texas Senate are extraordinarly unlikely.

Overall, we believe that Texas Democrats will have the strongest showing in Texas House races. We expect a four-to-six net pick-up this election cycle, and though it would be a surprise, we wouldn't be shocked to see more.

U.S. Senate and Congressional Races: Predictions

At the federal level, we believe Nick Lampson will soundly defeat Seukla-Gibbs in TX-22, giving Democrats a pick-up in Texas. Though the final numbers may show it to be a closer race than it ever really was, we have complete confidence that Congressman Chet Edwards will hold off Republican challenger Van Taylor in TX-17.

We're eager to learn more about the Democratic challenge to Republican Congressman Henry Bonilla, as a well-executed GOTV campaign could provide a terrifc upset. We're just not sure if there is one in place. Additionally, at least one of our senior writers remains thoroughly convinced that Shane Sklar, with more national attention and national dollars, could knock off Republican incumbent Ron Paul in TX-14 and provide Democrats nationwide with a surprise victory this November.

Many other Democrats are making excellent progress in strongly held Republican areas that have previously gone ignored. We applaude the efforts of such Democratic candidates as Mary Beth Harrell, Will Pryor, John Courage, Ted Ankrum, Robert Ricketts, Glenn Melancon, and of course, Barbara Ann Radnofsky. A perfect political storm could put any one of those candidates into office, and while we continue to work to make that possibility a reality, we also recognize the difficulty they will all face at the ballot box.

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Diaries

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