RCP Electoral Map: McCain by 10

The latest numbers from Indiana were just released by SurveyUSA. McCain now has a solid 6 point lead (a 7 point change over a 60 day period).

McCain is now projected by RCP to win the electoral college by 10.

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Breaking: CA Exit Poll - C: 50.8 O: 44.6

The just published CA exit poll has Clinton at 50.8, Obama at 44.6 excluding mail in votes.

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political 'futures' market trends

The political futures markets (intrade) are moving heavily today. Here are the predictions

Clinton: NY, NJ, MA, AZ, AR, MO, NM, TN
Obama: CA, GA, IL, AL, KS, CO, MN, UT

Tossup: CT, ND, DE, ID, AK

Note the CA prediction, which was trending Clinton this morning, moved almost immediately after the release of the Field Poll data.

I will update as changes occur.

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polls, polls, polls

I've become a poll junky :-( I know it's sad. I'll get rehab after this contest is over.

Rasmussen - Clinton: 45 Obama: 37
( +2 for Clinton since yesterday )

Chicago Tribune - Obama: 55 Clinton: 24

Rasmussen - Clinton: 46 Obama: 41
InsiderAdvatage - Clinton 46 Obama: 40

Rasmussen - Clinton: 49 Obama: 35

Rasmussen - Clinton: 47 Obama: 38

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Delegate Battlecard : The state of the race.

A number of recent diaries on MyDD and OpenLeft created a rather rancorous debate over the current state of the democratic nomination race.

In an attempted to address some of the debate point I have assembled a delegate battle-card that, hopefully, addresses a number of various posters concerns.

The battle-card forecasts delegate allocation up-to and including Tsunami Tuesday (but excluding FL and MI).

Clinton will have a 100+ delegate lead after 2/5.

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final SurveyUSA Florida Democratic poll

The final SurveyUSA poll of people who either have voted or are expected to vote in todays primary in Florida.

Hillary Clinton 52%
Barack Obama 28%
John Edwards 13%

It is interesting to note that neither the SC results nor the Kennedy Endorsement has had an impact. In fact, Clinton's spread increased by 4% in the last 24 hours.

Most striking is the fact that over 80% of Latino Democrats voted for Clinton, with 8% remaining undecided. Only 8% of Latino voters support Barack Obama. Obama did win almost 70% of the African American voters.

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latest Feb 05 polls

The latest Tsunami Tuesday polls, take before the SC result, show Clinton will a double digit lead in all states (for which polls are available) except Illinois.

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Media round-up going into SC primary.

The bulk of the mainstream media is focusing on race as the voters of South Carolina head to the polls today.

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court allows casino vote

A federal judge allowed Nevada's Democratic Party to conduct voting to choose a U.S. presidential nominee in casino hotels on the Las Vegas Strip, a decision likely to boost Sen. Barack Obama.

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