by kristoph, Tue Aug 19, 2008 at 03:45:42 PM EDT
The latest numbers from Indiana were just released by SurveyUSA. McCain now has a solid 6 point lead (a 7 point change over a 60 day period).
McCain is now projected by RCP to win the electoral college by 10.
by kristoph, Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 06:18:44 PM EST
The just published CA exit poll has Clinton at 50.8, Obama at 44.6 excluding mail in votes.
by kristoph, Tue Feb 05, 2008 at 10:08:32 AM EST
The political futures markets (intrade) are moving heavily today. Here are the predictions
Clinton: NY, NJ, MA, AZ, AR, MO, NM, TN
Obama: CA, GA, IL, AL, KS, CO, MN, UT
Tossup: CT, ND, DE, ID, AK
Note the CA prediction, which was trending Clinton this morning, moved almost immediately after the release of the Field Poll data.
I will update as changes occur.
by kristoph, Sat Feb 02, 2008 at 06:09:50 AM EST
I've become a poll junky :-( I know it's sad. I'll get rehab after this contest is over.
Rasmussen - Clinton: 45 Obama: 37
( +2 for Clinton since yesterday )
Chicago Tribune - Obama: 55 Clinton: 24
Rasmussen - Clinton: 46 Obama: 41
InsiderAdvatage - Clinton 46 Obama: 40
Rasmussen - Clinton: 49 Obama: 35
Rasmussen - Clinton: 47 Obama: 38
by kristoph, Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 12:52:23 PM EST
A number of recent diaries on MyDD and OpenLeft created a rather rancorous debate over the current state of the democratic nomination race.
In an attempted to address some of the debate point I have assembled a delegate battle-card that, hopefully, addresses a number of various posters concerns.
The battle-card forecasts delegate allocation up-to and including Tsunami Tuesday (but excluding FL and MI).
Clinton will have a 100+ delegate lead after 2/5.
by kristoph, Tue Jan 29, 2008 at 01:40:06 PM EST
The final SurveyUSA poll of people who either have voted or are expected to vote in todays primary in Florida.
Hillary Clinton 52%
Barack Obama 28%
John Edwards 13%
It is interesting to note that neither the SC results nor the Kennedy Endorsement has had an impact. In fact, Clinton's spread increased by 4% in the last 24 hours.
Most striking is the fact that over 80% of Latino Democrats voted for Clinton, with 8% remaining undecided. Only 8% of Latino voters support Barack Obama. Obama did win almost 70% of the African American voters.
by kristoph, Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 06:48:38 PM EST
The latest Tsunami Tuesday polls, take before the SC result, show Clinton will a double digit lead in all states (for which polls are available) except Illinois.
by kristoph, Sat Jan 26, 2008 at 09:10:08 AM EST
The bulk of the mainstream media is focusing on race as the voters of South Carolina head to the polls today.
by kristoph, Thu Jan 17, 2008 at 09:33:15 AM EST
A federal judge allowed Nevada's Democratic Party to conduct voting to choose a U.S. presidential nominee in casino hotels on the Las Vegas Strip, a decision likely to boost Sen. Barack Obama.