• on a comment on What Momentum Looks Like over 6 years ago

    The only states Obama is expected to win from here to the end are NC.

    Oregon and Montana are ostensibly Obama country but no one has polled either.

    Clinton is leading Obama 63 to 27 in KY so that's better than 2-1 actually.

  • on a comment on What Momentum Looks Like over 6 years ago

    ... and yet she is doing better than Obama versus McCain in virtually every recent poll.

  • on a comment on What Momentum Looks Like over 6 years ago

    Clinton does not need the AA vote or the youth vote to win FL, OH and PA and she won't lose any core democratic states because of these groups.

    I bet Bayh will deliver IN and with him on the ticker I think there is a good chance she can take that state also.

    The biggest impact would be on down ticket races where the AA vote is critical to the candidate. I do think there would be a much lower AA turn out from AA voters and, to a lesser extent, the youth voters, but it's not like other democrats will turn away.

    Obviously if she chooses Obama as VP those problems go away but if there is another Wright blowup he might be too toxic.


  • on a comment on What Momentum Looks Like over 6 years ago

    You are probably correct but I think there is a chance it won't be decided by June ....

    Clinton is likely to win everything except NC and OR before June. Unless Obama has a very strong result from NC he will be behind in the popular vote counting MI and FL (and possibly even excluding MI).

    In that situation it will very tough for the super delegates to decide before MI and FL are resolved and before John Edwards decides for whom his delegates will vote.

    If Clinton should somehow win NC and OR (not very likely) then I think it's fair to say we'll go all the way to the convention with Clinton the likely nominee.

  • on a comment on Obama's Downticket Dilemma over 6 years ago

    I think the truth is that Obama would help some down ticket races while he would hurt other down ticket races. The same can be said for Clinton. We can argue about how much who would help whom but it's pretty academic.

    The main focus now is who can win the White House. Clinton has edge just now but in a week the pendulum might swing.


  • Actually the Chairs have the most impact and they have already been chosen with Clinton holding an edge (unless most of those who have no known affiliation support Obama or some Clinton supporters defect).

    The remaining 161 are likely to be pretty evenly split (Clinton did win all but 2 of the top 10 states, after all).


  • on a comment on Open Thread over 6 years ago

    Seriously, Kobi, you need to chill. If your candidate wins, great. If not, there will be other candidates. The world will not end.


  • on a comment on Open Thread over 6 years ago

    Do you bother with the facts, or do you just live in fantasy land all the time ...

    "I find these comments appalling. It contradicts everything that I'm about and who I am."

    "They offend me, they rightly offend all Americans and they should be denounced," he said. "That's what I am doing very clearly and unequivocally here today."

    Actually there is more, you should watch the speech. He threw Wright down, got in the bus, then ran over him, then backed up for good measure.


  • on a comment on Open Thread over 6 years ago

    I didn't say anything about Wright.

    My point was that Obama's appeal, especially among many core democratic groups, is in decline (comparing recent contests like Ohio, Pennsylvania to previous contents like Iowa, Wisconsin).

    If that becomes a trend (as it appears to be in IN and to a lesser extent in NC ... see pollster.com trends) that will be a problem for him.

    If he plateaus or regains momentum he will be fine. Clinton is betting the decline will accelerate in which case she has a good shot at the nomination.

  • on a comment on Open Thread over 6 years ago

    If Obama does marginally well with voters through the next 8 contents and polls reasonably against McCain he will be the nominee.

    Clinton is betting at some point before June Obama will totally self destruct and loose huge percentages of non-African American voters and start polling very poorly against McCain.

    I think it's a reasonable bet at this point, don't you?

    If that happens, the super delegates (including those who have already 'voted' will move to Clinton) and the contest will end.

  • http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=d4d1bc7e-32d4-438e-8143-75c8b2 5b3435

  • on a comment on Barack Obama Press Conference over 6 years ago

    Ahh FUD ...

    Clinton wants a windfall tax on the Oil companies in addition to giving drivers the federal tax break.

    So ...

    Clinton: windfall tax on Oil companies, tax breaks for the people

    McCain: tax break for the people

    Obama: windfall tax on Oil companies


  • on a comment on Barack Obama Press Conference over 6 years ago

    ... and yet we've never had a woman president.

    What does that tell us about a society where a representative of the majority has never been elected as a leader?


  • Wright is a story because of what Wright said. If Wright speaks further it will be a continued story.

    I do think it will die down by next week but the damage would have been done.

  • I 'took an hour' to view both his speeches and I am sorry to say that he holds quite a number of fringe radical positions (AIDS, drugs, al queda) many of which, any rational person, would define as radical and quite a number which are, at the very least, bordering on racist (white vs black brains, Zionism).

    I do think he is smart, educated and thoughtful man who is both a patriot and a credit to his community but he is certainly far out of the mainstream in his beliefs about the world.



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