Clinton does not need the AA vote or the youth vote to win FL, OH and PA and she won't lose any core democratic states because of these groups.
I bet Bayh will deliver IN and with him on the ticker I think there is a good chance she can take that state also.
The biggest impact would be on down ticket races where the AA vote is critical to the candidate. I do think there would be a much lower AA turn out from AA voters and, to a lesser extent, the youth voters, but it's not like other democrats will turn away.
Obviously if she chooses Obama as VP those problems go away but if there is another Wright blowup he might be too toxic.
You are probably correct but I think there is a chance it won't be decided by June ....
Clinton is likely to win everything except NC and OR before June. Unless Obama has a very strong result from NC he will be behind in the popular vote counting MI and FL (and possibly even excluding MI).
In that situation it will very tough for the super delegates to decide before MI and FL are resolved and before John Edwards decides for whom his delegates will vote.
If Clinton should somehow win NC and OR (not very likely) then I think it's fair to say we'll go all the way to the convention with Clinton the likely nominee.
I think the truth is that Obama would help some down ticket races while he would hurt other down ticket races. The same can be said for Clinton. We can argue about how much who would help whom but it's pretty academic.
The main focus now is who can win the White House. Clinton has edge just now but in a week the pendulum might swing.
Actually the Chairs have the most impact and they have already been chosen with Clinton holding an edge (unless most of those who have no known affiliation support Obama or some Clinton supporters defect).
The remaining 161 are likely to be pretty evenly split (Clinton did win all but 2 of the top 10 states, after all).
I 'took an hour' to view both his speeches and I am sorry to say that he holds quite a number of fringe radical positions (AIDS, drugs, al queda) many of which, any rational person, would define as radical and quite a number which are, at the very least, bordering on racist (white vs black brains, Zionism).
I do think he is smart, educated and thoughtful man who is both a patriot and a credit to his community but he is certainly far out of the mainstream in his beliefs about the world.