Actually, pollster.com is showing Obama declining which Clinton is gaining so the 'poll of polls' curve does not agree with you.
In fact, if you believe the 'poll of polls' approach Obama will win by 6-8%.
The contest continues because Obama has not been able to 'close the deal'. If he can't 'close the deal' where he has an unassailable demographic advantage he is not going to win in November.
It's a simple as that.
It's funny you say Dean has decided to hand the nomination to Obama.
I hear the Obama camp is pretty pissed at Dean for stacking the Rules and Bylaws committee with Clinton loyalists.
So for a guy who has decided in favor of Obama he is sure doing Clinton a big favor.
I have Mac OS X (Leopard), nothing crashes.
Those of us in the working class make sure are tools are well maintained. You elitists just bitch about them and blame someone else :-)
- If she wins IN and NC I think it's more than likely that she will be the nominee.
I think Clinton winning IN with a low double digit margin and NC in the high single digits is the most likely scenario.
I think odds are she will win IN by 10+ which is a great achievement.
It is possible she will win NC but unlikely. If the result turns out tight though, it will still be a 'win' for HRC.
I think actually it won't make much difference what the margins are (unless there is a blowout in IN or NC) the delegate allocation will be the same.
However, this contest is as much about super delegates as anything else.
If Obama wins NC by a squeaker (or actually looses!) it's going to rattle the super delegates to the point where this will go until August.
... and although I think it unlikely, what if she somehow wins NC. If so Obama will be in real trouble.
Yes and, fortunately, their leaders can, through the rules and credential committee, make their votes count so all is well.
You are correct. The rules were created, the states did not follow the rules, the DNC acted within it's right.
The rules also provide for the delegations from these states to be seated by the DNC credentials committee. If, by the use of these rules, the delegations are seated all is well, right?
... except for Florida, and Ohio and Pennsylvania maybe.
I feel for you :-( We have two cat's. Their part of the family. We'd be devastated if something happened to either of them.
I am hope your other kitty returns safe and sound.
So, according to Zogby, Obama's lead is down 7 points in NC in ONE DAY! If that curve holds, Clinton will win NC by about 25 points ;-)
Zogby is a fraud. Don't pay any attention to him. (No matter who's side your on.)
... so by that logic Tom Cruise is the Messiah :-)
Actually, Zogby's first PA tracking poll was 10 points of the mark. His final poll was 6 points of the mark.
By comparison, SurveyUSA and ARG were about 5 and 4.5 off the mark respectively.
In all cases the polls understated Clinton's support.
I expect Clinton will win IN by 5-10% and lose NC by 7-12%.
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