political 'futures' market trends

The political futures markets (intrade) are moving heavily today. Here are the predictions

Clinton: NY, NJ, MA, AZ, AR, MO, NM, TN
Obama: CA, GA, IL, AL, KS, CO, MN, UT

Tossup: CT, ND, DE, ID, AK

Note the CA prediction, which was trending Clinton this morning, moved almost immediately after the release of the Field Poll data.

I will update as changes occur.
 

Tags: futures, Intrade (all tags)

Comments

14 Comments

Re: political 'futures' market trends

which field poll data ?

You mean zogby

by lori 2008-02-05 10:18AM | 0 recs
Re: political 'futures' market trends

Same question.

by RJEvans 2008-02-05 10:21AM | 0 recs
Re: political 'futures' market trends

I think the diary refers to some of the turnout data posted by Todd earlier on the front-page.

by DPW 2008-02-05 10:21AM | 0 recs
Re: political 'futures' market trends

The "Field Poll" is a well-respected California poll.  It's named after some guy named Field.

by Steve M 2008-02-05 10:23AM | 0 recs
Re: political 'futures' market trends

LOL. You're such an idiot. You always crack me up.

by RJEvans 2008-02-05 10:24AM | 0 recs
Re: political 'futures' market trends

I think he was being serious. It's named after Mervin Field. Lori probably knows what the Field Poll is, but because she is averse to capital letters, I think Steve believed lori might not realize that "field poll" refers to an actual polling outfit--as opposed to some generic poll of the field.

by DPW 2008-02-05 10:29AM | 0 recs
Re: political 'futures' market trends

Are you serious?

by RJEvans 2008-02-05 10:35AM | 0 recs
Re: political 'futures' market trends

actually i know what the field poll is and yeah it is arguably the best in california.

I was just wondering if they had a new poll out because the old poll had been out for a couple of days now and it shows clinton ahead by 2.

I would think it is more likely the markets would be reacting to the zogby poll unless there is a new field poll out there that we don't know about.

Steve made me laugh too.

by lori 2008-02-05 10:36AM | 0 recs
Re: political 'futures' market trends

No, there is no new poll. The Field Poll is simply showing that there is going to be a huge turnout and this is being interpreted to favor Obama.

I am saying I agree with this but clearly the majority of pundits think so (as their spending money on it).

by kristoph 2008-02-05 10:42AM | 0 recs
Re: political 'futures' market trends

At this point, I'm not sure what the diary is referring to. Originally, I just figured that it was referring to the turnout stuff Todd Beeton posted a little while ago (basically projecting large independent turnout). But, the diarist didn't say that in his reply to you, so who knows.

I was pretty certain that you knew what the Field Poll is. You're always breaking the polling news, so I assume you know more than I do about these things.

by DPW 2008-02-05 10:43AM | 0 recs
Re: political 'futures' market trends

Well, I see that Kristoph has clarified above. Cool.

by DPW 2008-02-05 10:44AM | 0 recs
Re: political 'futures' market trends

I am always happy to bring the gift of laughter. :)

by Steve M 2008-02-05 10:45AM | 0 recs
Re: political 'futures' market trends

Sorry, this is about intrade basically.

by kristoph 2008-02-05 10:24AM | 0 recs
one thing i noticed

is that these "political markets" do nothing but follow the polls.

by highgrade 2008-02-05 11:30AM | 0 recs

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