final SurveyUSA Florida Democratic poll

The final SurveyUSA poll of people who either have voted or are expected to vote in todays primary in Florida.

Hillary Clinton 52%
Barack Obama 28%
John Edwards 13%

It is interesting to note that neither the SC results nor the Kennedy Endorsement has had an impact. In fact, Clinton's spread increased by 4% in the last 24 hours.

Most striking is the fact that over 80% of Latino Democrats voted for Clinton, with 8% remaining undecided. Only 8% of Latino voters support Barack Obama. Obama did win almost 70% of the African American voters.

Tags: Democratic, Florida, poll (all tags)

Comments

20 Comments

Re: final SurveyUSA Florida Democratic poll

i'm confused by why you are placing this poll here when the actual polls close in an hour.

by tom32182 2008-01-29 01:47PM | 0 recs
Re: final SurveyUSA Florida Democratic poll

It is essentially an entrance/exit poll.

I am not so much interested in the result as I am in the following:

1) The impact of SC result and of the Kennedy endorsement. You can see that more clearly in poll trend-lines from one pollster.

2) The demographics of the result as I think this provides an indication of future results.

Honestly I don't think it matters if Clinton wins by 20% or 24%. If she wins by 30% of more that might move the needle.

by kristoph 2008-01-29 01:59PM | 0 recs
Re: final SurveyUSA Florida Democratic poll

Honestly I don't think it matters if Clinton wins by 20% or 24%. If she wins by 30% of more that might move the needle.

I don't follow your logic.

by ottovbvs 2008-01-29 02:04PM | 0 recs
Re: final SurveyUSA Florida Democratic poll

I am just saying that my diary is really about the trend (both generally and demographically) in FL as a result of the endorsements and SC results.

It is particularly interesting because FL would receive the same media exposure and was polled aggressively immediately after those events.

The actual FL result is, obviously, something we will learn in a few hours.

My point about the 30% was that if Clinton has that large a margin that will change the media narrative in a way that a 20% victory will not.

by kristoph 2008-01-29 02:11PM | 0 recs
Re: final SurveyUSA Florida Democratic poll

OK. A point I've been making for a few days is that FL really has to be seen through three different prisms.

Barometer much the most important and what you are speaking to principally.

Publicity generator for Clinton campaign to use as counterweight against SC

Source of delegates, maybe

They are all very different issues but are regularly commingled. Your comments about the impact of SC etc are very valid and may indeed support the narrative that the events of the past two weeks have served to increasingly polarize the voters.      

by ottovbvs 2008-01-29 02:25PM | 0 recs
Re: final SurveyUSA Florida Democratic poll

John Kerry has explained why the Florida results do not matter...

You have a contrast today, a juxtaposition. You have an avoidance of a rule set up by the chair to create something that isn't supposed to be something.

I think that pretty much settles the debate.

by Steve M 2008-01-29 01:47PM | 0 recs
Re: final SurveyUSA Florida Democratic poll

John Kerry is a loser and you know it; he lost Florida and should probably remember the importance of those 27 electoral votes going away. He will remain a loser all his life!

by American1989 2008-01-29 01:51PM | 0 recs
Re: final SurveyUSA Florida Democratic poll

I think Steve was being sarcastic ;-)

by kristoph 2008-01-29 01:53PM | 0 recs
Re:

Tis quite confusing.  What exactly did he say?   I am starting to understand what exact kinship prompted Kerry's endorsement. :-)

by georgep 2008-01-29 01:54PM | 0 recs
Kerry worth 5% in MA.

Yep. I actually rather like Kerry. He's personally brave at the physical and moral level whatever anyone says. God knows why he endorsed Obama but it does confirm his judgement is shaky as the campaign in 04 showed.  

by ottovbvs 2008-01-29 01:58PM | 0 recs
Re: Kerry worth 5% in MA.

The thing is that John Kerry's quotes always sound like a comedian trying to make fun of John Kerry.

by Steve M 2008-01-29 02:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Kerry worth 5% in MA.

Steve, very true. He's a parody of himself. Not unique to Kerry of course.

by ottovbvs 2008-01-29 02:09PM | 0 recs
Re: final SurveyUSA Florida Democratic poll

Whew!

by Jerome Armstrong 2008-01-29 01:56PM | 0 recs
Re: final SurveyUSA Florida Democratic poll

funny thing is I have not seen a single poll yet that shows Barry got a bounce from SC. It actually trended down in FL.

by bayareasg 2008-01-29 02:01PM | 0 recs
Re: final SurveyUSA Florida Democratic poll

Perhaps the race baiting worked! If she wins the Obamanauts will say it did and if she loses they'll say it just proves race baiting by Clinton was a waste of time.

by ottovbvs 2008-01-29 02:06PM | 0 recs
Re: final SurveyUSA Florida Democratic poll

If this holds up she's probably going to be in mid fifties and Obama may not break or only just break 30%. To me who was expecting an Edwards collapse this would be an eyeopener. But we'll see.

by ottovbvs 2008-01-29 02:02PM | 0 recs
takes two to tango

by souvarine 2008-01-29 02:04PM | 0 recs
Re: final SurveyUSA Florida Democratic poll

Why do Obama supporters think the way you do? I did not mean this as an attack. I merely noted the facts (You don't dispute the facts here, right? Your just trolling?)

Firstly, you understand that you could just reverse what you say and come to the conclusion that Obama is divisive but personally I think this has nothing to do with the actions of the candidates.

Second, the demographics of the results, and their associated trends, are very interesting on their own, and can be instructive when predicting other results.

by kristoph 2008-01-29 02:05PM | 0 recs
Re: final SurveyUSA Florida Democratic poll

Basically they think like they do because they are a bit juvenile. Well he gets the youth vote.

by ottovbvs 2008-01-29 02:08PM | 0 recs
Re: final SurveyUSA Florida Democratic poll

That does not make any sense.  Every cycle candidates divvy up the demogroups.  The candidate who has forged the most votes with his /her strongest demogroups wins.  If that is Hillary, so be it.  If that is Obama (or Edwards) so be it.  

by georgep 2008-01-29 02:36PM | 0 recs

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