Delegate Battlecard : The state of the race.
by kristoph, Fri Feb 01, 2008 at 12:52:23 PM EST
A number of recent diaries on MyDD and OpenLeft created a rather rancorous debate over the current state of the democratic nomination race.
In an attempted to address some of the debate point I have assembled a delegate battle-card that, hopefully, addresses a number of various posters concerns.
The battle-card forecasts delegate allocation up-to and including Tsunami Tuesday (but excluding FL and MI).
Clinton will have a 100+ delegate lead after 2/5.
Only the latest polls were used to create the estimates. Either the average of a maximum of the most recent three polls, where the the sampling began no more than 7 days ago, or the most recent poll otherwise. I left out some of the small states because there were no polls for these done in the last 30 days.
The polls were normalized to 100% and then the delegates were allocated according to that relative percentage of each candidate.
Note that delegate allocation is actually done by congressional district so these are estimates only.
If you find any inaccuracies or concerns please let me know. I intend to keep the battle-card updated as polls pour in.