Delegate Battlecard : The state of the race.

A number of recent diaries on MyDD and OpenLeft created a rather rancorous debate over the current state of the democratic nomination race.

In an attempted to address some of the debate point I have assembled a delegate battle-card that, hopefully, addresses a number of various posters concerns.

The battle-card forecasts delegate allocation up-to and including Tsunami Tuesday (but excluding FL and MI).

Summary:
Clinton will have a 100+ delegate lead after 2/5.

Only the latest polls were used to create the estimates. Either the average of a maximum of the most recent three polls, where the the sampling began no more than 7 days ago, or the most recent poll otherwise. I left out some of the small states because there were no polls for these done in the last 30 days.

The polls were normalized to 100% and then the delegates were allocated according to that relative percentage of each candidate.

Note that delegate allocation is actually done by congressional district so these are estimates only.

If you find any inaccuracies or concerns please let me know. I intend to keep the battle-card updated as polls pour in.

Tags: clinton, delegates, Democratic, obama, polls, Primary (all tags)

Comments

12 Comments

Re: Delegate Battlecard : The state of the race.

So what you're saying is that Clinton has the edge but it won't be decided on Tuesday.

by Drummond 2008-02-01 01:08PM | 0 recs
Re: Delegate Battlecard : The state of the race.

I am just showing the numbers. You decide what they mean (if anything) :-)

by kristoph 2008-02-01 01:15PM | 0 recs
Re: Delegate Battlecard : The state of the race.

Okay, they mean that a dark stranger will come into my life and I will be showered with riches and true love.

by Drummond 2008-02-01 01:31PM | 0 recs
Re: Delegate Battlecard : The state of the race.

I admire your effort, but delegate allocation doesn't work that way. At issue isn't simply rounding, but that in most states, the majority of delegates are allocated based on the votes earned in each Congressional District. That means there can be significant variation in delegate counts each candidate picks up in a state, relative to their overall performance. Of course states also allocate delegates based on statewide vote total, but those are roughly about half the number of CD delegates.

Here's a great breakdown of the Super Tuesday states and how they allocate delegates, among other useful info.:
http://nationaljournal.com/campaigns/200 8/wh08/super_tuesday.htm

by along 2008-02-01 01:09PM | 0 recs
Re: Delegate Battlecard : The state of the race.

Yes, your absolutelly correct, and I am aware of that.

However, there is no way to predict delegates based on CD's because we don't have per CD polls.

Predicting delegates based on polls at a statewide level is still better than nothing IMO.

by kristoph 2008-02-01 01:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Delegate Battlecard : The state of the race.

Also, you're using the TOTAL number of delegates from each state, which includes the Super Delegates.  But they are separate--not allocated in the primary elections. You'll need to recalculate based on the total PLEDGED delegates, which are listed in the National Journal link.

by along 2008-02-01 01:14PM | 0 recs
Re: Delegate Battlecard : The state of the race.

Thank you. I updated accordingly. Do let me know if you find anything else.

by kristoph 2008-02-01 01:37PM | 0 recs
Re: Delegate Battlecard : The state of the race.

Cool.

Whoops: You've got the CO poll numbers reversed, unless you have a second new one that I haven't seen.

And did you get the Most recent TN poll in?
POLL: WSMV-TV TN Primary

WSMV-TV/Crawford Johnson & Northcott
Jan. 28-29
Tennessee
Clinton 36, Obama 31

And the SurveyUSA CT poll?
Obama 48, Clinton 44

by along 2008-02-01 02:00PM | 0 recs
Re: Delegate Battlecard : The state of the race.

Appreciate the effort, but I don;t think the methodology works. Simply applying the statewide % to the delegate count is a little too simple.

3/4 of the delegates in each state are chosen by congressional district, with proportional representation within districts. That means that in some districts even a significant win (58-42) results in an even delegate split. It also means that distribution of votes makes a huge difference in how many delegates someone gets.

I also believe the race is very fluid right now. Edwards out, some sense of Obama momentum, endorsements, debate impact etc make it hard to assume that the most recent polling will reflect what is going to happen on Tuesday -- especially since the most recent polls almost universally show growth in Obama support.

We're going to end up with a very close delegate count on Feb 5 - no one is going to run away with this.

by lifelongdem 2008-02-01 01:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Delegate Battlecard : The state of the race.
rec'd this diary...
It probably won't make it because it doesn't spew anger in one way or the other but it should...we should be talking about this.
by JDF 2008-02-01 01:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Delegate Battlecard : The state of the race.

While I understand that it is difficult to extrapolate reliable delegate predictions because of the lack of polling at the CD level, it is safe to make some assumption based on statewide polling. For example, we know that HRC is going to get most of the delegates for most districts in MA, NY, OK, AR, TN and probably NJ. We know that BHO is going to get most of the delegates from most CDs in, well, Illinois and Georgia. I am basing this on strong statewide leads in an array of polls.

Personally, while I think that the mail voting gives Clinton an edge in California, their delegate race will be pretty close.

Looks like Alabama, Connecticut and Missouri will be close. Alabama, particularly, seems like the state where John Edwards withdrawal had the most direct and tangible impact. Before his withdrawal, the thought was that Obama would win there a la South Carolina.

Obama is making a big play in Arizona and New Mexico. Previously, I figured that Clinton would get big wins here but am now rethinking that due to the Kennedy endorsement and Obama's huge investment of time in these states in this crucial week. I have literally no numbers to back me up, but one has to assume that Obama's interal polls are showing him something to hope for for them to spend this much time.

Colorado seems to tilt toward Obama. I doubt that the Denver Post endorsement will have much of an impact.

By the way, the value of Survey USA polling is a point of contention around here. I think that they are useful because their internals are more transparently disclosed. In determining who is winning in what CDs, at least SUSA gives us regional breakdowns of numbers.

If I were Clinton, I would spend this weekend in:

* St. Louis (tied currently)

* heavily Latino CDs in CA and AZ

* Central Connecticut (tied)

* Western / Southern Georgia (try to get more delegates out of non-Atlanta Georgia, where Obama's lead is coming from)

* S. Alabama (she trails here, leads in North AL...pick up some support)

If I were Obama, I would spend time this weekend in:

* New Bedford, MA (the Buzzards Bay area of MA is the only area where he is competitive. I would go for a few delegates from that region.)

* St. Louis

* Minneapolis / St. Paul - No one except Edwards has paid much attention to Minnesota. It is a big state. Given the very liberal bent of TC Dems, I would do some GOTV here.

*Downstate IL (I know it's his home state but there seems to be some movement here. To stay close to Clinton in delegates, it seems to me that he has to have a huge delegate margin out of his home state.)

I expect Clinton to have a delegate lead from Super Tuesday alone of 50-70 delegates. Add that to her current 75 delegate advantage (per RCP, includes SD).

A lead of 125 delegates, which is roughly what I expect Clinton to have on Wednesday, is not overwhelming but is difficult for Obama to overcome due to the proportional way we allocate delegates. MD and DC won't do it.

I think that this contest goes until March 4th, when Texas and Ohio settle it.

by arkansasdemocrat 2008-02-01 02:20PM | 0 recs
Re: Delegate Battlecard : The state of the race.

rec'd. Good post. I like these numbers. ;)

by forecaster15 2008-02-01 03:37PM | 0 recs

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