New NH poll: Edwards tied with Richardson at 9 points!

A new Suffolk University NH poll has just been released. Of democratic likely voters, Hillary is the clear leader
http://www.suffolk.edu/20780.html


Hillary: 37%
Obama: 19%
Richardson: 9%
Edwards: 9%

If Al Gore entered the race, he would beat Hillary by 32 to 29.

The 7NEWS-Suffolk University poll was conducted from June 20 to June 24, 2007.  The margin of error is +/- 4.38 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence.  The 500 respondents statewide were all likely voters in the New Hampshire Primary

My brief analysis:

Hillary is the clear favourite. We're seeing Richardson surge, obviously Edwards campaign is also seeing this trend, that's why they have to use already diminished cash to put on ads in NH.

In this poll, Al Gore is a factor. He may be the only hope Obama/Edwards campaigns have. As a Hillary supporter, I wouldn't mind Al Gore entering the race. He is a candidate with real substance besides Hillary. I'd love to see these two real statesmen/women debating real issues.

Tags: Hillary Clinton (all tags)

Comments

59 Comments

kostner just go away !

the fact that so many would switch to Gore shows how soft Hillary's support really is, right now among voters not paying attention the Gore and Hillary names are prominent, that won't be the case in January.

by nevadadem 2007-06-27 02:23PM | 0 recs
Re: kostner just go away !

Your wet dream, I bet. A couple of polls showed many NH voters(40 to 50% in one poll, I believe) saw NH debate. After that debate, Hillary had a surge and solidified her lead.

Obviously, independent NH voters are not satisfied with either Edwards or Obama even some of them do not like Hillary. That's why you  Al Gore is a factor. Al is a stateman with substance. Obama/Edwards certainly did not pass the threshold test by NH voters.

by kostner 2007-06-27 02:26PM | 0 recs
Re: kostner just go away !

Surges come, surges go.

Leads solidify, leads e v a a a p o o o o o r a a a a a a a t e

by horizonr 2007-06-27 04:07PM | 0 recs
That post-debate

poll from NH, I think it was, noted that only 8%  were committed to their candidate. So yes, very early, even in an early primary state like NH.

by jj32 2007-06-27 04:26PM | 0 recs
Re: New NH poll: Edwards tied with Richardson at 9

That is a wow poll. Very, very bad news for Edwards. Not very good news for Obama either. Pollster.Com may have head more polls were coming which is why they added Richardson to the top tier.

by robliberal 2007-06-27 02:24PM | 0 recs
Re: New NH poll: Edwards tied with Richardson at 9

I think Clinton/Richardson/Al Gore's strength in a couple of recent polls also tell us 'experience' DOES matter.

by kostner 2007-06-27 02:29PM | 0 recs
Re: New NH poll: Edwards tied with Richardson at 9

I think so too. I think that is why Clinton and Richardson are gaining in Iowa as well.

by robliberal 2007-06-27 02:30PM | 0 recs
Re: New NH poll: Edwards tied with Richardson at 9
Richardson's strength in polls is very good news for Hillary. Media will focus more attention to a new storyline of a Richardson 'surge' since I assume they're getting tired of Clinton's lead'.
All this will cause jugglings among Obama/Edwards/Richardson, Hillary can cruise around in the boring summer time.
by kostner 2007-06-27 02:33PM | 0 recs
Re: New NH poll: Edwards tied with Richardson at 9

Why don't you correct Obama's percentage... it's 19%...NOT 15.

by bode78 2007-06-27 02:38PM | 0 recs
Re: New NH poll: Edwards tied with Richardson at 9

Of likely Democratic voters, 37 percent said they support or lean to Hillary Clinton, 19 percent picked Barack Obama, while John Edwards and Bill Richardson each received 9 percent.  Just 16 percent were undecided.

by bode78 2007-06-27 02:38PM | 0 recs
It matters among low info Dems

which is why we so often nominate experienced unlikeable bores who end up losing the general election.

by Populism2008 2007-06-27 03:46PM | 0 recs
Re: It matters among low info Dems

Good thing this time we have a woman running strong who is neither of those two (at least if you are a Democrat.)

by georgep 2007-06-28 05:44AM | 0 recs
Re: New NH poll: Edwards tied with Richardson at 9

You have the number's wrong on Gore and Clinton . It is Gore 32 and Clinton 26.

by BDM 2007-06-27 07:57PM | 0 recs
Re: New NH poll: Edwards tied with Richardson at 9

I should have typed "Pollster.Com may have heard..."

by robliberal 2007-06-27 02:24PM | 0 recs
only good news for Hillary Hillary Hillary!

exept that the inevitable Hillary loses her lead to someone not in the race, you think some of these people might vote for someone else when the field is settled and they focus on the race, nah becuase the country just loves Hillary and those personal negatives are just a myth,or those are the only poll results you don't believe.

by nevadadem 2007-06-27 02:27PM | 0 recs
Woo hoo!

It's over baby!!!

Hillary has it won!!!!!

22 point lead!!!!

Weird title considering the big spread is Hillary by 22 over Obama and 28 over Edwards and Richardson.

Richardson surging!!! Woo hoo!!!

He's go some old fashioned Joe Mentum!!!!!

Seriously, don't you folks get sick of these stupid diaries.

And this diarist is not alone. A good Edwards poll generates the smae shit.

A good Obama poll the same shit.

Is this you folks first Presidential campaign? is everyone a teenager at this site?

by Big Tent Democrat 2007-06-27 02:32PM | 0 recs
Re: Woo hoo!

Polls determine who is able to raise funds. This particular poll will have a big effect on the Edwards and Richardson campaigns.

by robliberal 2007-06-27 02:38PM | 0 recs
It will have ZERO effect

None. zilch.

you people are children.

by Big Tent Democrat 2007-06-27 04:16PM | 0 recs
Re: It will have ZERO effect

Edwards' money has already dried up due to his bad polling numbers over the past few months.

by kostner 2007-06-27 04:20PM | 0 recs
Shakes head

His money dried up? You know this how?

by Big Tent Democrat 2007-06-27 04:30PM | 0 recs
Re: Shakes head

His fundraising # drops from Q1's $14 million to Q2's $9 million when Hillary and Obama continue to raise over or close to $30 million in Q2. If you are happy with his trend, I have nothing to add.

by kostner 2007-06-27 04:32PM | 0 recs
I didn;t know the numbers had been reported

I didn't know the second quarter ended before 6/30.

My point is you do NOT know.

You dson;t know what hillary raised and you don;t know what Obama raised and you are just spouting.

by Big Tent Democrat 2007-06-27 04:47PM | 0 recs
Re: I didn;t know the numbers had been reported

The email that was sent by the Edwards people last week claimed that they raised a little over $6 Million so far this quarter, with about ten days to go in the quarter.  Now, that may have been all BS to convey urgency, or to play the "expectations" game, or a little bit of both.  But it was the official word from the Edwards campaign.   Given that, I think it is somewhat safe to assume that Edwards won't match his Q1 fundraising of $14 Million, but of course the whole thing could just be a ruse and his numbers are actually quite different than what his campaign was letting on.  But to say that the poster is "just spouting" is not quite right, as Edwards chose to put specific numbers up for us to look at that showed his fundraising numbers up to about 10 days ago.    

by georgep 2007-06-28 05:41AM | 0 recs
Re: It will have ZERO effect

Seems like a bit of a "childish" comment.

Nobody forced you to peek into this diary.  If you don't like poll diaries in general, then stick to the other diaries instead and you won't get yourself upset.

by georgep 2007-06-27 04:41PM | 0 recs
Hey George

I'll peek in where I like than you very much.

My opinion is it will have ZERO effect.

How much effect do you think it will have?

How long till the NEXT poll porn?

Hell, knowing it annoys you folks, I will peek into to all of them and decry every last one.

Seriously, if you want to be a child about this race, then go ahead and be one.

And I'll go ahead and point that out.

by Big Tent Democrat 2007-06-27 04:49PM | 0 recs
Re: Hey George

Thank you BTD!!!

I'm an Edwards supporter, and I look at the numbers and think I should be depressed, but I am not.  I guess I like what he is doing right now.

Have no idea what will happen, but these diaries make me laugh, even the Edwards diaries.

by pioneer111 2007-06-28 01:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Hey George

Thank you BTD!!!

I'm an Edwards supporter, and I look at the numbers and think I should be depressed, but I am not.  I guess I like what he is doing right now.

Have no idea what will happen, but these diaries make me laugh, even the Edwards diaries.

by pioneer111 2007-06-28 01:57PM | 0 recs
Re: It will have ZERO effect

Of course it has an effect on fundraising. People who write the big checks don't use a dartboard to decide who they will support.

by robliberal 2007-06-27 04:49PM | 0 recs
This poll will have ZERO effect

on fundraising.

For crissakes, it is even an outlier for all NH polls.

Let me put it this way, Hillary's campaign is smart enough to know "the race ain't over."

You say you worked on the Clark campaign in 04 and you honestly act as if some silly poll in June is some big event?

I shake my head at you.

by Big Tent Democrat 2007-06-27 04:51PM | 0 recs
Re: This poll will have ZERO effect

I was not referring to only this particular poll. It will have some effect as will the Richardson poll in Iowa.

by robliberal 2007-06-27 04:55PM | 0 recs
The Richardson poll in Iowa

had Edwards ahead by 10.

It was a bad poll for Obama and Hillary.

See you really are not being very honest with yourself are you?

by Big Tent Democrat 2007-06-27 05:16PM | 0 recs
Re: This poll will have ZERO effect

You are late to this party. We've been 'hyping' and 'dissecting' every poll. Nobody but you thinks this poll ALONE is a big deal. It is NOT. We saw an ARG(??) poll about one week ago putting Hillary in low 40s.

In a way, every poll in June is a big event!

by kostner 2007-06-27 04:58PM | 0 recs
Apparently

amongst the dolts here they are big events.

Most people who are willing to think know better.

by Big Tent Democrat 2007-06-27 05:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Woo hoo!

This is my take. Political campaign is similar to stock market, polls, money, crowd buzz etc just like all sorts of economic indicators such as GDP, inflation #, employment #, earnings, drive the daily movement of either the political campaign or the market. Of course there will be a lot of noise, or false indicators, but that does not diminish the importance of each indicator.

by kostner 2007-06-27 02:43PM | 0 recs
You can't go lower than zero

which is the importance of this poll.

by Big Tent Democrat 2007-06-27 04:17PM | 0 recs
Re: Woo hoo!

Yes, I am getting tired of these polls. Perhaps someone such as yourself can say something to the people who run this site. It's really getting silly at this point, but coming from me- let's see George says it means I got sourgrapes, but I say I got an interest in seeing this site remain something more than a horserace diary a day routine.

by bruh21 2007-06-27 02:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Woo hoo!

I bet you'll be extremely happy if mydd becomes a solely daily Hillary-bashing site?

by kostner 2007-06-27 02:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Woo hoo!

Plus, if you're really tired of seeing poll, you can probably visit dailykos. That site notoriously hides all bad polling news for Edwards.

by kostner 2007-06-27 02:51PM | 0 recs
Re: Woo hoo!

I think most who come to this site and including the owners and front pagers of this site like to see the poll results. One of the main purposes of this site is to follow presidential and other races.

by robliberal 2007-06-27 02:52PM | 0 recs
Re: Woo hoo!

Exactly. I no longer visit dailykos very much after they started to hide bad polling data for Edwards.

by kostner 2007-06-27 02:55PM | 0 recs
Re: Woo hoo!

give me a break okay? All these are poll dumps. You aren't even really providing analysis of what this means on issues, on a progressive agenda or anything else. You aren't saying anything at all in fact other than my guy or girl is up. And no- if you look at my last diary, I didn't write or care about polling data. In fact in another diary as I remember I just asked you to post a diary on HRC's views on healthcare in specific terms. Have you done so yet?

by bruh21 2007-06-27 03:02PM | 0 recs
Re: Woo hoo!

That is because polling is all there has ever been to the Hillary campaign. Remember her motive for running: "in it to win it". The emptiness is astounding.

by Populism2008 2007-06-27 03:48PM | 0 recs
Re: Woo hoo!

LOL.  Are you kidding?  The polls could easily be different, showing Obama "liked" more by voters.  Showing him capturing the imagination of a plurality.  Surging ahead (he got close once.)   Just because the polls are not that way does not mean that it is about them.  They are just the way they are because Clinton is liked, did well in the debates, connects with more Democrats, people like her stuff.  

The problem is all on Obama and Edwards for not doing enough, not being creative enough, not being fiery enough (for Democrat's tastes.)

by georgep 2007-06-27 04:09PM | 0 recs
George

Definitely Hillary is running a good campaign.

This diary is still nothing but poll porn.

by Big Tent Democrat 2007-06-27 04:20PM | 0 recs
Re: George

she's running a good one while no one is paying attention. i will be more impressed when she has to deal with an electorate in jan 2008 rather than a vacationing one in 2007

by bruh21 2007-06-27 06:27PM | 0 recs
this is poll porn

There is not one piece of intellignet commentary at this site on politics anymore.

by Big Tent Democrat 2007-06-27 04:18PM | 0 recs
Re: Woo hoo!

The pollster had this to say:

"Of likely Democratic voters, 37 percent said they support or lean to Hillary Clinton, 19 percent picked Barack Obama, while John Edwards and Bill Richardson each received 9 percent.  Just 16 percent were undecided.

"Hillary Clinton clears the field and with only 16 percent undecided; it is unlikely that any of her announced opponents will catch her," said Suffolk University Political Research Center Director David Paleologos."

Seriously, BTD, don't you think that this guy knows a bit about NH polling, a bit about the numbers he is looking at?  The Suffolk U poll is one of the most trusted polls around.  Do you think he is actually a teenager with a Clinton-crush?

by georgep 2007-06-27 02:48PM | 0 recs
No

I know this outfit and it is not particularly good.

Anyone who sas the stupidity you quote is simply a publicity seeking shill.

He says the race is over! And you want to take that seriously George?

Puhleeeaze/

by Big Tent Democrat 2007-06-27 04:19PM | 0 recs
Re: No

Clinton has a lot of built-in advantages in the state (i.e. proximity to her home state, campaign style suited to NH's typical style, etc.)  It is hard to see how she can't win there, unless something very dramatic happens.

But, if you rather want to believe that this field is just like 2004, that is ok by me.  

by georgep 2007-06-27 04:38PM | 0 recs
New Hampshire

is now considered close to New York? Her campaign satyle is "suited to NH's typical style? What the hell does that even mean? Etc?

Sheesh George, if she loses Iowa she'll have to fight like hell to win NH.

It is extremely easy to seee how she can be beat.

Here's what Hillary needs to do - win Iowa and end the whole thing in one fell swoop.

Do you know if they plan to compete in Iowa? I hope they are not stupid and think that losing in Iowa is no big whoop.

by Big Tent Democrat 2007-06-27 04:54PM | 0 recs
Re: New Hampshire

I agree with your analysis. Looks like her national polling average is stablizing at high 30s. The way for Hillary to finish once and for all is to pull ahead convincingly in Iowa. If you see her #s moving up in IA in the next couple of months, this race will be finished before it even starts.

I think team Clinton will battle very very hard in IA.

by kostner 2007-06-27 05:01PM | 0 recs
Iowa

I have said that Iowa decides maybe everything.

Hillary wins Iowa its over.

Obama wins Iowa, it is close to over. If he also wins NH, then it is over.

If Edwards wins Iowa, he has a shot. Whomever finishes 3rd is in big trouble.

by Big Tent Democrat 2007-06-27 05:19PM | 0 recs
Re: Woo hoo!

But what does he say about Gore. He says she loses 29% OF HER SUPPORT AND gORE WIN;S WITH 32 COMPARED TO cLINTON'S 26.

by BDM 2007-06-27 08:02PM | 0 recs
Re: New NH poll: Edwards tied with Richardson

Nobody is saying it's over. That's why we are here.

by kostner 2007-06-27 02:49PM | 0 recs
Hillary is 44!

Experience & class matter!

by sterkt 2007-06-27 03:10PM | 0 recs
Hillary is not 44

as long as general election voters prefer likeable candidates to "experienced" ones.

by Populism2008 2007-06-27 03:50PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary is not 44

I don't think that statement makes sense.

 Hillary is the mot liked candidate by DEMOCRATS, a likeability advantage particularly over Obama that fuels her leads.  

The general election comes after the primaries, but I think we will see a lot of those who think of her as "dragon lady" (low-info Republicans) come to like her pretty well once they see her in debates, appeareances, etc.

by georgep 2007-06-27 04:06PM | 0 recs
Re: Hillary is not 44

George, as I have said before, I am not talking about the primaries. I have no doubts about Hillary's popularity among Democrats. I am making the argument against voting for Hillary in the primaries if you want a strong candidate in the general.

I know that we disagree here. And I hope you realise that I actually do like Hillary, even though I think that she is the wrong kind of person to run for president in a country where people vote for the folksy, charismatic or likeable candidate. US elections are much closer to American Idol contests than many of us dare to think... I might be cynical here but...

I see Obama as the perfect type of candidate in terms of personality. That he is a rock solid progressive on the issues is a welcome bonus.

by Populism2008 2007-06-27 05:20PM | 0 recs
GOOOO Hillary!!!

She's got New Hampshire!  So far, so good!  Can't let up, though, that's how others can surge.  Al Gore is not going to run, people can put that dream away- they need to deal with the facts and this is reality!

by reasonwarrior 2007-06-27 08:20PM | 0 recs

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