More pesky Prop 8 facts
by kosnomore, Tue Nov 11, 2008 at 10:49:44 AM EST
Facts are facts, whether people want to hear them or not.
As more data comes in, the FACT is that a significant number of "progressive" voters, who delivered a massive California victory for Barack Obama, also supported California's Proposition 8, which placed a ban on gay marriage in the state constitution.
"Ironically . . . a mathematical analysis of voting and exit poll data indicates very strongly that it was exactly that pro-Obama surge that spelled victory for Proposition 8."
At first, "it was widely assumed that hundreds of thousands of first-time or occasional voters had turned out to vote for Obama, then left the rest of their ballots blank, thus allowing more conservative voters to dominate ballot measures."
Actually, there was very little voting drop-off. "10.96 million votes had been tallied in the presidential race and 10.85 million for and against Proposition 8."
In FACT, "a great many Obama voters were also voting for Proposition 8, sponsored by a very conservative religious coalition."
Proposition 8, in FACT, received 1.6 million more votes than John McCain. "And, it's apparent, many of those votes - enough to make the difference - came from African American and Latino voters drawn to the polls by Obamamania."
African Americans voted 94 percent for Obama and 70 percent of African Americans also voted for Proposition 8. Latinos voted 74 percent for Obama and 53 for Proposition 8.
"Last week . . . 10 percent of [California] voters were African American while 18 percent were Latino, and applying exit poll data to that extra turnout reveals that the pro-Obama surge among those two groups gave Proposition 8 an extra 500,000-plus votes, slightly more than the measure's margin of victory."
Read the FACTS:
Two lessons - - gay marriage could win, in a "normal" turnout, lower intensity, off year election. And, when the overwhelmingly popular winning candidate is against something (like gay marriage), it's not the time to expect to win on the issue.
BTW, there was a time when the "reality based community" would deal with facts, not deny them or shout them down.UPDATE - For the record, and in answer to questions, I support gay marriage (and reproductive freedom, and decriminalization of marijuana, etc.) on libertarian grounds. And, I support leaving it to the states on federalist grounds. What we need is a dozen or so states with legalized gay marriage to prove to the trogolodytes that it doesn't end western civilization as we know it. And, what am I "doing to support marriage equality besides misdirecting the blame?" Well, I voted for it in Florida - - unlike at least 15 to 20% of all Obama supporters (run the numbers - - assuming 100% of McCain voters were anti marriage equality, where'd all those other "save marriage" amendment voters come from?)
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