• comment on a post Sidney Zion: What Zogby tells me: Kerry wins over 9 years ago
    Zogby chose Kerry on the Daily Show last night, mirroring this, though no mention was made of any specific states.
  • comment on a post Poll Averages of the Zogby States over 9 years ago
    I think Jerome's exactly right to pay attention to Zogby. My presidential year analysis would put Zogby, Harris and ABC as the three that come closest nationally, so I'd imagine their state polls would be pretty damn close, too.

    Thus, I give credence to Zogby aberrations that aren't too far from others. CO looks credible, while MI does not.

    I think paying attention to where the campaigns are scheduling visits and ads can tip us off to what their internal polls are saying.

    Based on these, my overall impression is that Bush thinks he has Florida, but he's losing OH and PA, so he needs to cover his losses elsewhere. I mean, otherwise, why are they still going after NH?

    The schedule (counting the past few days) says to me: Bush is making a cursory stab at MN and IA, but is trying very hard for FL, PA, MI, WI, OH, NH. He thinks NV, NM, AR, WV are safe. Out of those competitive ones, only FL favors him slightly, while OH favors Kerry. WI trended his way, but they've lost the momo there. MI has momo in his direction.

    On the other hand, Kerry's done late additions to his schedule, in MI and NH, trying to shore those up. The ad buy in HI is insurance and the ads in WV/AR are longshots. Sending Clinton to NM, AR, NV are also longshot efforts to see if his magnetism can sway folks that Kerry couldn't.

    Conclusion: Bush won't touch WI unless he can disenfranchise Milwaukee's Blacks. He's got too little too late to take MI. So most of the efforts of both remain on OH/PA/FL, but the reality is: If Kerry has gained CO/OH/NH and Bush has gained only NM but believes FL is his, then he NEEDS PA or OH, and THINKS PA is more doable than OH.

    (That's my read based on the campaign stops, though I forgot to check to see if anything's scheduled in CO)

    Kerry's internals are likely showing he's got the race, he's shoring up the base in HI/NH/MI and even tossing cash at longshots hoping to broaden his win.

    Btw, just saw Zogby on The Daily Show, and he's saying it's awfully close but he thinks Kerry's going to win.

  • comment on a post Colorado is in play (so is half of Maine) over 10 years ago
    Btw, I'll add my WB to, Jerome. You were missed.
  • comment on a post Colorado is in play (so is half of Maine) over 10 years ago
    Ed has it right; TN & LA are in play ahead of VA. However, viewing economic reports, all three are unlikely to swing to Kerry unless he's got a landslide coming and AZ and NV will be tough.

    I'm worried DE could swing back to the GOP column as well. ME only made it because new registrations are trending GOP.

    Purely on economics, though, Bush is most vulnerable in losing OH, and CO, and he isn't likely to take away OR, MI, WI from the Dems.

    The economic numbers suggest Kerry will have to work to retain NM, MN, and PA. MO, AR are trending Bush; IA trends Kerry. And the polling numbers suggest FL, WA, NH will remain tossups.

    Look at the polling numbers 1 month from today, and I bet you'll see the election result then.


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