Charlie Cook says Democrats will lose the House

 Legendary political prognosticator Charlie Cook now says that he doesnt see a way that Democrats dont lose control of the House this November.


Obama sure as hell better get healthcare passed now.  We didnt throw away our majority to not get healthcare done. 

The deal we made was that we would elect Obama and he would pass healthcare.  If he is going to cost Democrats the majority that we worked so hard for because of his political clumsiness, he sure as hell better get healthcare passed.  If not, he must be defeated in 2012. 

Tags: obama, Charlie Cook. 2010 (all tags)



Who is this "we" who made this "deal"???......

There was no "deal" made on any one issue, and I can't begin to guess by who you mean "we."

Different people voted for Obama for different reasons.

There is some small percentage of people for whom health care in the first year or two was a top priority.

For most of us, just among Obama voters and set aside McCain voters, health care was just one of many priorities.  I personally didn't have one top priority on election day or since then.

I agree that since Obama and Congressional Democrats decided to make health care a top priority on par with dealing with the economy, they have to get it done to mitigate election day losses.  And I agree losing a lot of seats, maybe even losing the House, without signature legislation to show for it would be one of the greatest all-time epic political disasters.  And Obama would be completely Clintonized as a result, forced to settle for uncontroversial microinitiatives for the remainder of his Presidency.

And your comment that "Obama must be defeated" in 2012 is absurd assuming you're looking for a Democratic victory that day (if you're a Repug, at least that explains it).  There's not going to be any primary challenge, certainly not a remotely successful one and almost certainly not a serious one.

by DCCyclone 2010-02-23 08:44AM | 0 recs
RE: Who is this "we" who made this "deal"???......

If Obama wins reelection after Democrats losing the House, there will be NO way for Democrats to recover just like Democrats were stuck in the minority for 12 years when Clinton won reelection.  We are going to need a Republican winning the White House again to rebuild.  Its not like having the White House is getting anything done right now. 

by Kent 2010-02-23 10:38AM | 0 recs
We won't get fooled again...

to borrow a phrase from the Who.  I can't see a case in which a Democratic candidate will be trotted out as a response to the inevitable Republican oppressive rule and capture once again the hearts and minds of undecided Dems and independents.  Obama has slightly yes than three years to right the foundering ship of state and make us believers once again.  Chances of it happening are slim since in November Democrats are expected to lose everything they gained in the 2008 election.

by pascal1947 2010-02-23 01:30PM | 0 recs

Kent, Charlie Cook's crystal ball is no more effective than yours or mine. In fact it maybe even a little less so. His track record on long term prognostication ain't all that great.   Charlie looking at numbers today and gaming them out to November is a fools game, but it makes for great sound bites and helps his bottom line. And if you really want to make headlines and draw attention to yourself predict the doom of the Democrats in '12. This is not to say as of this moment in time it doesn't looks bad for incumbents, it does. So yes healthcare should get passed and I think everybody realizes that. My guess it will. (however please see above comment re: my crystal ball)


Next you have been calling for Obama defeat in '12 since the day he got elected so either you are a complete idiot or absolutely jonesing to get a Republican back in the WH. Based on your diary history I am going to go with the former.

by jsfox 2010-02-23 08:59AM | 0 recs
RE: Charlie Cook says Democrats will lose the House

Cook's exact quote is, "It's very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don't lose the House. It's very hard. Are the seats there right this second? No. But we're on a trajectory on the House turning over...."

He's talking about the current trajectory, not the current map. In February 2009, I never would have predicted the vitriol and violence of the August recess - and August isn't even November. If Cook can't talk about the seats, than his predictions about those seats are meaningless. Let's see what things look like closer to Labor Day before pretending anything is even close to won or lost.

by Nathan Empsall 2010-02-23 10:27AM | 1 recs
I didn't make that deal

Making healthcare a priority was a big mistake IMO.

by JJE 2010-02-23 02:36PM | 0 recs


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