Breaking: Obama cuts Hillary's national lead to 6 pts

From TPM,

Gallup: Hillary's National Lead Over Obama Down To Six Points
By Eric Kleefeld - January 30, 2008, 1:17PM

The new Gallup poll shows the national Democratic race might be really tightening -- Hillary's lead is down to the single digits. Here are the numbers, compared to their last poll from two days ago:

   Clinton 42% (-2)
    Obama 36% (+3)
    Edwards 12% (-2)

Only a week ago, Hillary was up by 16 points.

We'll find out soon enough what the impact of Edwards' withdrawal will be, and also where the remaining undecideds will end up.

This race is going down to the wire.

Tags: Hillary, John, obama (all tags)

Comments

33 Comments

Re: Breaking: Obama cuts Hillary's national lead t

this is the result of all that hoopla with kennedy and sc; but that topic has been changed.

Plus, the NBC/WSJ poll had her up by alot.

by American1989 2008-01-30 08:47AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts Hillary's national lead t

The Rassmussen trend had only a 1pt shift to Obama over the last week.

Also, AP-Ipsos did an analysis of where Edwards supporters were leaning and Clinton had 42%, Obama 25% with the remainder undecided. If the undecideds break along the same lines, that would give Clinton a 3 point advantage nationally.

by kristoph 2008-01-30 09:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts Hillary's national lead t

But Gallup poll is tracking daily and these are the results from the last three days. Rasmussen also has Obama and Clinton tied in Connecticut after she had held a significant lead for quite some time.

by commoncents 2008-01-30 10:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts Hillary's national lead t
Wow- all of a sudden Obama people think national polls matter-
Is that what Claire McCatskill wanted to tell Obama the other night?
by Menemshasunset 2008-01-30 08:48AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts Hillary's national lead t

funny. I always think they would matter as we get close to Super Tuesday. I still think Hillary has the advantage because of her name recognition.

by Jr1886 2008-01-30 08:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts Hillary's national lead t

The national poll numbers didn't matter early on because we had 4 states voting early. Now that we are about to have 22 states across the country vote, the national poll numbers serve as a stand in for those 22 states.

by Obama08 2008-01-30 09:11AM | 0 recs
hysterical*

by steveinohio 2008-01-30 09:17AM | 0 recs
Duh.

Duh. National polls matter when you're talking about 23 states voting!!! they don't matter when you're talking about Iowa and NH.

by mcdave 2008-01-30 09:55AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts Hillary's national lead t

Hillary will benefit from Edwards leaving because of the ecnomic and white voters that will come on her side; there is also that anti-Hillary vote that Obama might benfit from.

However, I still think that Clinton will rout on Super Tuesday.

That will throw an egg on Ted's face.

by American1989 2008-01-30 08:52AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts Hillary's national lead t

Now Obama will have the "male vote" all to himself.  Mwuhahahahaha.  I'm so sick of all this splitting up the electorate into tiny subsections. it's overdone.

by Chili Dogg 2008-01-30 08:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts Hillary's national lead t

Hear! Hear !

Me and the wife were actually arguing the other night about Barack/Hillary. When we realized that neither one of us was talking about issues, we started laughing.

As far as the subsections...How far does this go?
"Barack can get the white female vote because he has a white mother, but blue collars like Hillary so Barack will actually get the white, female, white collar vote, however Barack is right-handed and a Northerner so he will lose the southern, white female, white collar, left-handed vote......

by xodus1914 2008-01-30 09:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts Hillary's national lead t

The vast majority of the populace does not talk about the issues and, historically, it has been shown that demographics are a predictor of the result.

The main challenge in the demographics for Obama is that he received only 25% of the white vote in SC and in FL and only about 20% of the Hispanic vote.

If that remains his national average he will lose the nomination.

by kristoph 2008-01-30 09:44AM | 0 recs
And then

we can say goodbye to any chance of passing progressive reforms in 2009 because Democrats will not gain any strength in Congress due to a combination of very high Republican turnout due to Hillary and lower Democratic turnout due to Democrats who won't vote for her.  

by Toddwell 2008-01-30 10:00AM | 0 recs
Re: And then

How about the lower McCain vote from Conservatives and Evangelicals?

by georgiast 2008-01-30 10:41AM | 0 recs
Re: And then

They will come out if Hillary is the nominee.  

by Toddwell 2008-01-30 11:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts Hillary's national lead t

Obama's a lefty, actually, which sucks, because the right-handed demo is much larger. Maybe Obama can make this part of his message: "We can't keep sending the same old right-handed folks to Washington and expect the different results."

by DPW 2008-01-30 09:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts Hillary's national lead t

It's must be really uptight here, because I found this ^^^hysterical....LOL..Thnx

by xodus1914 2008-01-30 09:58AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts

I'm not sweating it- in fact, I'm more and more confident Hillary will be the nominee.

by reasonwarrior 2008-01-30 09:13AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts

Do you wanna lose the House and several governorships in 2010, allowing Republicans to draw themselves a permanent House majority?  Clinton winning would be a disaster for Democrats, just like in the 1990's.  

by Toddwell 2008-01-30 09:35AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts

Really?

Hillary seemed to do pretty well against all comers, Republican and Democratic, in Florida.

by hwc 2008-01-30 10:19AM | 0 recs
Thats not my point

Like most Hillary supporters, you are ignoring the Congressional races.  Hillary would wreck the party Congressionally just like her husband did.  She would turn us into a "Presidential Party" and Republicans into the Congressional party just like her husband did.  

by Toddwell 2008-01-30 10:29AM | 0 recs
Re: Thats not my point

Are you kidding? Actually the demographics show that Obama would drag the party down. The hard core Hillary haters are only about 35-40% of the country. And they are gerrymandered into deep red districts that aren't competetive.

by Ga6thDem 2008-01-30 10:43AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts

Neither am I. Last night told me her coalitions intact. Edwards leaving is going to help her regardless of what those ever so unbiassed pundits say. I had Obama as a possible winner in a couple of southern states but they are starting to look unlikely. There's a pattern emerging here and I don't see it changing.
Blacks O 80% C 20%
Hispanics O 30% C 70%
Whites O 20-35% C 65-80%
Women           C 55-60%

Play the games. Run the percentages against the demographics in all the states. Tweak the percentages by state. I still put her in the 18-20 range for Tuesday. And contrary to all the claims here which are getting very tedious the great majority of Democrats think Obama is too dicey against McCain.    

by ottovbvs 2008-01-30 10:03AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts

I will vote for McCain if Democrats are stupid enough to nominate a Clinton again.  

by Toddwell 2008-01-30 10:30AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts

Don't say stupid stuff like that.  McCain is a nightmare on the war, choice, judicial nominations, the economy, and damn near anything else.  I'm far from a Clinton fan, but statements like this are not helpful.

by HSTruman 2008-01-30 10:33AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts Hillary's national lead t

More movement for Obama, From openleft.com

There have also been two California polls since South Carolina. One shows Obama pulling ahead of Clinton:

   On the Democratic side, the combined results of three nightly samplings of 400 different voters - for Wednesday, Thursday and Sunday - found Hillary Rodham Clinton at 36 percent, Obama at 31 percent and John Edwards at 12 percent.

   But when taken alone, Sunday's tracking - just a day after Obama's big win in the South Carolina primary - had Obama leading Clinton, 35 percent to 32 percent, with Edwards' share growing to 16 percent. And pretty much the same numbers came up Monday.

by Jr1886 2008-01-30 09:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts Hillary's national lead t

There have also been two California polls since South Carolina. One shows Obama pulling ahead of Clinton:

  On the Democratic side, the combined results of three nightly samplings of 400 different voters - for Wednesday, Thursday and Sunday - found Hillary Rodham Clinton at 36 percent, Obama at 31 percent and John Edwards at 12 percent.

- " The numbers are part of a nightly tracking poll being done by the anti-Indian-gaming initiative campaign, which has included a question on the presidential primaries. "

Anti gaming initiative lol

You have to come up with something better than that.

by lori 2008-01-30 09:50AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts Hillary's national lead t

SurveyUSA did a poll of 900LV in CA on the 27th which gave Clinton an 11% lead.

by kristoph 2008-01-30 09:50AM | 0 recs
There is movement toward Obama

This is going to be very interesting.  Richard Cody - president of the New Jersey Legislature and Chair of Edwards campaign is endorsing Obama.

by Moonwood 2008-01-30 09:36AM | 0 recs
I believe his name is Codey

Until one of the candidates starts to poll in the above 50% range, then the race remains wide open across the board. The undecided are going to make the difference, and no can be certain how they will break.

by fetboy 2008-01-30 10:29AM | 0 recs
Re: I believe his name is Codey

Codey is not a superdelegate, but he is one of the most popular politicians in New Jersey.  Frankly, now that I think about it, he is one of the only popular politicians in New Jersey.

You guys don't seem to write diaries for every single endorsement like the other team does, haha.

by Steve M 2008-01-30 10:41AM | 0 recs
Polls results?
Obama has consistantly earned more votes than he was polled to get in every state so far in which he was on the ballot, with the exception of NH in which he got exactly what he was polled to get.
So it is reasonable to assume that he does better than he polls.
Still he is the underdog, but until Clinton starts polling better than 50%, then I feel optimistic for Obama. But I am predicting that Clinton will win the nomination, and win a squeaker against McCain (unless something changes from now until Super Tuesday, or between Super Tuesday and November).
by fetboy 2008-01-30 12:34PM | 0 recs
Re: Polls results?

These superdelgates  worry me. It seems that if the race goes down to the wire, then they can just decide to jump in one camp or the other.

Or is their committed status tied to any caucus/primary?

by xodus1914 2008-02-01 08:01AM | 0 recs

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