Breaking: Obama cuts Hillary leads in California to 3 pts

The latest Rasmussen survey out of California shows a statistical dead heat with Hillary at 43% and Obama at 40%. Both candidates increase their support from the last survey. Obama gains 7 pts from last survey and Hillary gains 5pts. This survey was conducted before John Edwards drop out on Wednesday.

Key findings:

Obama had a narrow 43% to 41% advantage among the party's liberal voters while Clinton held a 45% to 35% edge among moderate voters.

Obama held a three-point lead among white voters in the state while Clinton had a twenty-seven point lead among Hispanic voters.

Clinton trailed by eight points among men but led by ten among women.

So much for the racial divide, Obama is now leading among white voters though with a statistically insignificant margin. With John Edwards dropping out and since Edwards voters are mostly white men, I expect Obama to gain some more points in California. yet, Obama still have some more work to do with Hispanics voters. Hillary leads by a substantial margin among that group. I expect as Kennedy, a hero in the Hispanic community, start campaigning for Obama in California, Barack numbers among that group will improve. So the chips are falling and they seem to be falling at the right time for Obama.

Tags: Hillary, obama, poll, Rasmussen (all tags)

Comments

10 Comments

Re: Breaking: Obama cuts Hillary leads in Californ

He cuts her lead from what 5% to 3% , that doesn't seem like much to me if the numbers are valid.

Not something that deserves a blowing off the roof top lol.

by lori 2008-01-30 09:38PM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Obama cuts Hillary leads in Californ

I agreee. Both make gains from the last survey. Yet, it's still tempting to look at the internals. Obama leads among white voters. So I expect John dropping out to help Obama in California

by Jr1886 2008-01-30 09:44PM | 0 recs
Re: Obama cuts Hillary leads i

You Have to also remember that over 2 million people had already voted in california as of last Friday.

So, polls taken entirely now in CA and many other early voting states don't take this into account.

Among early voting, Hillary had a near 20 point lead.  People who early voted for Edwards can't pick another candidate.

by DrGary 2008-01-30 11:13PM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking:

I am confident California will go for Hillary. I have already voted for her.  Rasmussen was very wrong about New Hampshire and I don't believe he has gained as much as they say.

We'll see what happens.

by reasonwarrior 2008-01-31 01:12AM | 0 recs
why not use logic?

Ramussen daily tracking his hillary +9,

no way California lags the national because of the demographics.

either the national is wrong or California is wrong.

The national is done over many days, so it should be more accurate.

Flordia voted +14 for hillary so I tend to believe the national.

by yellowdem1129 2008-01-31 01:18AM | 0 recs
Obama won

the late vote in Florida.  The analysis of the Florida vote is that those who voted later and on election day went more for Obama.  Clinton win was because of early mail voting.

by Moonwood 2008-01-31 05:30AM | 0 recs
The Rassmussen

finding on the white vote is similar to the SUSA poll which showed the white vote tied.  

Hillary's prior lead in California is based on the Hispanic vote.  Whether Kennedy can help here is uncertain.

In the end, this is less of a shift than is being found in MA (where Rasmussen shows Obama down only 6) and in NY, where Obama trails only by 12.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/P PP_NY_Release_013008.pdf

At this point the evidence of an Obama bounce out of SC is mixed.  

by fladem 2008-01-31 03:47AM | 0 recs
Scared me for a minute

... its just Rasmussen.

Hey, there  is a 15% chance Scott is right.

by dpANDREWS 2008-01-31 04:40AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Hillary leads Obama in Tennessee

she is breaking up Obama's southern strategy:

http://craigfarmer.blogspot.com/2008/01/ clinton-leads-obama-in-tennessee.html

In the internals they show a good story for a nationwide win.

Also, an IA Georgia poll that has Obama up big, has bad internals for him.  It shows Hillary winning whites 51 - 34.

by yellowdem1129 2008-01-31 06:05AM | 0 recs
Re: Breaking: Hillary leads Obama in Tennessee

Gets your facts. 34 % is not bad . This is the South. He over performs the poll in SC where he was supposed to get just about 10-18% he gets 1/4

by Jr1886 2008-01-31 07:21AM | 0 recs

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