It's All About Transition

It has been almost two years since political pundits and insiders started speculating as to who will make a bid for the Presidency in 2008. Now that midterm elections are less than a week away, several nominees have been highlighted, and the media is focusing on every possible candidate to determine who has what it takes to be the next great American President. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton both experienced cover-story treatments from Time. John McCain and Rudy Giuliani are being thrown around conservative radio and equally hyped by several news magnets as the top GOP contenders. Even Michael Bloomberg, the Republicratic mayor of New York City, is being touted as a highly viable third party candidate in the realm of H. Ross Perot. Whatever the case may be, we will have a new President in 2008, one who will stray from the Bush Administration and begin a new era in American politics. Or at least that's what many want to believe.

The fact of the matter is, folks, I highly doubt 2008 will bring us the next great American president, as many are hoping for. More likely, we will experience a transition presidency, one which will last for one term, leading us into a possible two-term presidency occupied by a great leader of sorts.

The major candidates have their flaws. In fact, out of the 13 speculated Democrats and 12 speculated Republicans, each of them have just as many flaws as they do positives added to their records. John McCain, whom many see as a great moderate, will be incredibly old at the end of his first term. At the age of 76, one would wonder whether or not he could successfully continue his Presidency, assuming he doesn't kick the bucket in his first four years. Rudy Guiliani is incredibly abrasive, and, assuming he even gets the nomination let alone the win, he will probably battle Congress the majority of his term since he is incredibly ambiguous on his political stance. Mayor of New York City doesn't necessarily equate to Presidential material, and it does not show how he would be able to deal with the legislative branch of the United States government. Something tells me his first term would be filled with quips, accusations and, ultimately, some sort of scandal. That is just based on his record as mayor of New York City alone. Moving to the Democrats, if Hillary gets the nomination and the win, she will probably be stuck fighting Congress and her toughest critics, and will be left trying to pamper her polarizing image rather than achieving anything of real merit. Most other Democrats would be in the same position, except for Barack Obama, who I doubt would be able to get the nomination due to his lack of political experience.

Of course, this transition theory doesn't necessarily equal a bad thing. In 2012, there will be a larger field of contenders who could perhaps change the face of American politics. My vote goes for Eliot Spitzer, the soon-to-be Governor of New York, who will probably be as tough-as-nails in the Governor's mansion as he was Attorney General in the Empire State. Additionally, Barack Obama will be four years wiser and four years more experienced. I, of course, am a Democrat, and while hoping for a Republican win in 2008 seems like madness, I do wish we could get someone as painless as McCain or Giuliani in office mainly because they would not win re-election (if they choose to seek it). If Bloomberg wins by some "Man of the Year"-like voting error, he would be gone as well, mostly because the Democrats and the Republicans would launch an expensive, extensive assault against the man. (This transition theory does have a loophole: An Obama VP could eventually lead to an Obama-Spitzer ticket, so perhaps a [Democratic Candidate]-Obama 08 win would change my mind).

Of course, I in no way wish the continuation of a misbegotten Republican rule over our country. This is only political theory, and an argument that the worst case scenario may turn out for the best.

Tags: 2008, Barack Obama, Eliot Spitzer, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Michael Bloomberg, president, Rudy Giuliani (all tags)


1 Comment

Re: It's All About Transition

Some time ago I began to look at 2008 less in terms of personalities, more in terms of qualities and skills.  I put Foreign and Diplomatic experience high on my list, knowledge of the administrative responsibilities quite high, and I thought we should look to someone who had been a Governor.  

Gradually I realized that Bill Richardson had all those qualities.  A Legislator, a special Presidential envoy (to N. Korea no less) UN Ambassador, Sec. of Energy -- and now sailing toward his 2nd term as New Mexico's Governor.  I am not convinced of my own "realization" yet, but I think we might give him another look.  His SW base, his hispanic background, and yet his knowing his way around DC and the Hill -- all suggest that properly campaigned, he could be very appealing across many factions.  Compared to where Obama is right now -- Richardson has so much more experience -- and after GWB, we are going to need that.  

by Sara 2006-11-02 10:28PM | 0 recs


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