The Race is NOT OVER

 
No Nominee until the Democratic Convention. Super Delegates can't vote until then.
 

The Race is not over.

It is a fact that neither Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama will have enough Pledged Delegates to
secure the nomination after the last primaries are held on June 3.

Both camps have announced how many Super Delegates have endorsed their
candidacy.  More Super Delegates will chose one or the other of the candidates.
Most likely, at some time, one of the candidates will say they have enough Super Delegates
to give them the nomination.  At that time, that candidate can be called the Presumptive Nominee.

However, there are no ballots that a Super Delegate can fill out now and vote now.  That vote has
to take place at the Democratic Convention in August (25 to 28) when all the delegates vote.
So over 750 Super Delegates can not VOTE before then.

So what happens between June 3 and August 25?  The Presumptive Nominee is chosen.  Both candidates
have to wait until the Convention for the results to become final.

Almost every week some new news enters into the political arena.  There's 11 weeks between June 3 and
August 25.  Anything can happen.  The Super Delegates will vote for the candidate that can win in November.
This is where we stand at this time.

Tags: delusional, Democratic Convention, Hillary, obama, Presumptive Nominee, Super Delegates (all tags)

Comments

91 Comments

Re: The Race is NOT OVER

There's going to be a whole lot of poaching going on and Clinton knows how to handle a street fight. She may win or she may lose, but they obviously have a plan for the convention.

by Little Otter 2008-05-11 10:27AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Too bad they didn't have a plan for the post Feb 4th primaries.

by parahammer 2008-05-11 11:00AM | 0 recs
Clinton knows how to handle a fight?

If she's such a good fighter, why hasn't she started competing successfully yet?

Did she want to get behind, forcing herself to loan the campaign $15 million b/c she thought it would help her in the general?

by Carl Nyberg 2008-05-11 11:08AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Obviously?

Given the Clinton campaign's planning thus far, I'd be reticent to say they've "obviously" got a plan for anything.

by mistersite 2008-05-11 11:10AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

It's just this sort of attitude that has turned so many SD's against Hillary.  It's not about street fighting - it's about a process, and respect for principles.  

by interestedbystander 2008-05-11 12:04PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

I wish that there was an ubermojo 3 rating that I could give you for this comment.

by lockewasright 2008-05-11 02:53PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Why thank you kind sir / madam.

by interestedbystander 2008-05-12 01:59AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Looks like Obama's winning that game, too.

TEN of Clinton's superdelegates have crossed over to the Obama Campaign.

ZERO of Obama's superdelegates have crossed over to the Clinton Campaign.

What's going to happen to make Obama's superdelegates switch over to Clinton?

I bet they'll find out that Obama went to this church where this black minister had the nerve to criticize our own government in fiery tones at times - that will surely cause all of the superdelegates to come to their senses and flood to Clinton.

Oh wait, they already tried that.  And it didn't work.

So again - what's going to happen in the next 3 months to convince Obama's committed superdelegates that they should turn their backs on him?

by Obamaphile 2008-05-11 12:31PM | 0 recs
BWHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAH!!

Plan?
ahahhahahhahahahhahahahahahhahahhahahaha hha

Plan?

ahahahahhahahhahahhahhahahhahahhaahhahah h

by Al Rodgers 2008-05-11 12:35PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

The race is over. Those who say it's not reminds me of the japanese soldiers who were still fighting the war in 1953.

by mecarr 2008-05-11 10:28AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

since it's assumed that obama is the nominee, there will be 3 months of fight between the gop and obama, in which obama might be very bloodied to an extent that alot of sd want be able to support obama, being afraid that they will be tied to obama, and that might hurt them in their marginal districts, plus there might be sd feeling according to the polls in august that to nominate obama is suicide  so thet might change their mind

by awayer 2008-05-11 10:50AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Yes, boy, I couldn't agree more.

After putting our tails between our legs at THE BIG BAD REPUBLICS lets just dump the candidate wit the most delegates, the most popular votes, the most states, for a candidate the Republics HAVE LOATHED for the last decade or more?

Brilliant, and that makes Democrats look SO STRONG and Trustworthy to the electorate!

There is a winning strategy, that will get the respect of the MSM as well?

by WashStateBlue 2008-05-11 11:01AM | 0 recs
Re: now to convention

Obama guys should be grateful for Hillary staying in.  If she had dropped out by now the GOP would be tearing Obama to shreds.  Ironically, her continued presence is a protective shield for presumed-by-MSM et.al- nominee Obama.  The little bumpy ride he's had would have been infinitely worse if Hillary were gone.

by moevaughn 2008-05-11 11:18AM | 0 recs
summer preview - Hillary in August?

The GOP attack on Obama is already gearing up. Maybe it's for the best if they accept his claim and ignore Hillary for the summer. Let the GOP show their hand now, while there is still time to reject Obama in August.

by 1950democrat 2008-05-11 02:37PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

  Do not fear the winds of adversity. Remember: A kite rises against the wind rather than with it.
by gunner 2008-05-11 11:06AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

So you're telling me that after the party rallys around Obama in mid-June, after Obama starts naming his cabinet and running mate, after FL and MI are seated, you are still going to be holding out hope that the nomination is thrown to Hillary at the convention?  Seriously?

by map 2008-05-11 10:30AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

That is EXACTLY what he is saying. There are no such things as pledged "unpledged" delegates. Those "unpledged delegates" that have declared their support for either candidate have the option of switching their vote AT THE CONVENTION. The fact that it is in August and not June or July means that there will not be an official Democratic candidate for President of the United States until then. Like the diarist says -- there's 11 weeks between 6/3 and 8/25 and the "super" delegates have an obligation to their party and this nation to keep their options open.

by pan230oh 2008-05-11 10:46AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Good luck with that.  

It's been made quite clear that there will be no convention battle this year and that things will be settled by mid-June, but whatever floats your boat.

by map 2008-05-11 10:55AM | 0 recs
Re: No convention battle

but we don't know who the nominee will be yet, then do we?

by pan230oh 2008-05-11 11:23AM | 0 recs
Re: No convention battle

You obviously don't, but we do.

by interestedbystander 2008-05-11 12:07PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

I'm not sure people are understanding the diarist. There is NO nominee, not NOW, not EVER until AFTER the convention. The convention is where our nominee gets elected to be our nominee. The nomination process ALWAYS goes to the convention. When one candidate reaches the 2209 delegates to win the nomination by the voters they are only the 'presumptive' nominee until the convention. Right now no candidate will have 2209 or 2025 (excluding ALL of MI and FL) to become the presumptive nominee. SD's can endorse a candidate but they don't have a legal vote until the convention.

Right now McCain is only the presumptive nominee for the Republicans until after their convention, but only because he won the amount of pledged delegates to become the preumptive nominee. The pledged delegates won't vote until their convention to make him the nominee.

by Justwords 2008-05-11 12:29PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Do you understand that this has been the case in every Democratic primary since 1984? Bill Clinton was only the presumed nominee until the floor vote in 1996. That didn't stop everyone in the world from treating him as the nominee.

by letterc 2008-05-11 01:53PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Bill Clinton did not 'secure' the nomination till June 1996.

by 1950democrat 2008-05-11 02:27PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Sorry, that was 1992.

by 1950democrat 2008-05-11 02:28PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Exactly. But in 1992, he did "secure" the nomination in June. Even though the delegates could have decided to choose Hulk Hogan as the nominee at the convention, Clinton was treated as the nominee after June.

by letterc 2008-05-11 02:41PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

It's amazing they didn't cave to Gravelmentum that was a bigger threat than the Hulkster in my view.

Fear Gravel!!

What if they throw us all a curve, ignore the will of the people and hand the nomination to Paul Rubens?!


by lockewasright 2008-05-11 03:04PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

You seem to know nothing about nominating process. You need a lesson in Nomination 101.

The running mate only announced during convention where he gets the nomination if he has enough votes. If he wins the GE he picks the cabinet. So wtf are you talking about?

by indydem99 2008-05-11 12:05PM | 0 recs
The "process" is Hillary drops out...

...by June 15th.  It takes almost no reading between the lines of Hillary's and her surrogates' recent comments to see that.  The most specific comment is that Terry McAuliffe just promised that "there will be a nominee" by June 15th.  Other comments make clear the Hillary campaign has no intention of going to a floor fight.

So the convention, like always, will be one part formality, ten parts pep rally, and twenty parts messaging.

by DCCyclone 2008-05-11 12:36PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

John Kerry announced that John Edwards would be his running mate on July 6, 2004, several weeks before the Democratic National Convention.

by Obamaphile 2008-05-11 12:37PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

I was at the rally in Pittsburgh where John Kerry announced that Edwards was his running mate.  That was on July 6 2004, over a month before the convention.  So, you're wrong.

by Gene In PA 2008-05-11 12:41PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

This not a norm.

by indydem99 2008-05-11 12:49PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

It is now established precedent. There is no norm. There is no reason to assume that procedure in changeable infrequent social processes tend towards a consistent expected value, so the entire concept of a norm is fairly meaningless. There is only precedent, and that precedent is established. It is also not the norm for process of running for the nomination to start a year before the first primary, but that is no reason to think we will be going back to a reasonable process any time soon.

by letterc 2008-05-11 01:56PM | 0 recs
We do have a presumptive nominee

It's Obama.

by Slim Tyranny 2008-05-11 10:30AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

I told you Hillary would win!

by Hillarywillwin 2008-05-11 10:30AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Hey there is a diary about you on DK.

by parahammer 2008-05-11 11:02AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Al Gore, John Edwards, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Howard Dean, Chuck Schumer and Rahm Emanuel will not let this go until the convention.  

Hillary would look foolish pushing this to the convention in light of overwhelming opposition from her own party, and Hillary Clinton rarely allows herself to look foolish.  She's smarter than that, and she will concede if there is no doubt about Obama's candidacy once the primaries are over.

by davisb 2008-05-11 10:31AM | 0 recs
Clingons

Definition of a Clingon:

Those who still cling on to the hope that clinton can still win.

by venician 2008-05-11 10:32AM | 0 recs
BO to WV & KY: Drop dead

is what the MSM is saying

by observer5 2008-05-11 10:34AM | 0 recs
um, what?

by Slim Tyranny 2008-05-11 10:35AM | 0 recs
Re: BO to WV & KY: Drop dead

Links please!

by Gene In PA 2008-05-11 10:59AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

The pledged delegates don't vote until the convention either.

Let's take it ALL to the convention.  Edwards, Kucinich, Gravel, everyone.  They're all in it until there's a nominee.

Let's just have a big street fight.  It'll be healthy for the party.

by Agent77 2008-05-11 10:38AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

HISTORY FOR YOU:  READ THE FULL ARTICLE AT THE LINK BELOW.  THE MEAT OF THE ARTICLE IS BELOW THE LINK.  Thanks for all the comments by all of the readers.

JohnnyB

http://mediamatters.org/columns/20080430 0001?f=h_column

So now the press tells candidates when to quit?
Looking back at history, it's hard to find evidence of the same media response to Ronald Reagan's failed 1976 presidential campaign. Taking on President Gerald Ford, Reagan lost more primaries than he won, and Ford won a plurality of the popular vote, but neither man had enough delegates to secure the nomination. So the campaign went to the GOP convention, where Ford prevailed. The bitter battle did nothing to damage Reagan's reputation (in fact, it did quite the opposite), in part because the media did not collectively suggest the candidate was acting selfishly or irrationally. Instead, Reagan walked away with a reputation as a resilient fighter who stood up for his conservative values.
And what about Sen. Ted Kennedy's doomed run in 1980? He trailed President Jimmy Carter by more than 750 delegates at the end of the primary season and insisted on fighting all the way to the convention, where he tried to get committed Carter delegates to switch their allegiance. The press did not spend months during the primary season ridiculing Kennedy, in a deeply personal tone, for remaining in the race.
And what about Gary Hart in 1984? He and Walter Mondale split the season's primaries and caucuses evenly, and neither had the 2,023 delegates needed to secure the nomination. Superdelegates eventually determined the winner. (Sound familiar?) Mondale had many of them locked up even before the campaign season began, so after the final primary between Mondale and Hart was complete, it was obvious that Mondale was going to be the nominee because Hart could not persuade enough superdelegates to change their mind and support him.
When Hart took his crusade all the way to the convention, the media did not form a posse and decide it was their job to get Hart to quit for the good of the party. (And the press certainly didn't form a posse in March to start pushing Hart out of the race.) Nor did the press collectively suggest that Hart had an oversized ego that had turned him into a political monster.
That new media standard has been created exclusively for Hillary Clinton.
And where were the catcalls in 1988 for Jesse Jackson to ditch his quixotic run before all the primary votes had been tallied? He finished with 1,200 delegates, nearly 1,400 behind Michael Dukakis, yet soldiered on all the way to the convention without having a prayer of winning the nomination. There were few if any media drum sections trying to pound him out of the race.
Or Jerry Brown in 1992? He continued his campaign against Bill Clinton through June despite the fact he tallied fewer than 600 delegates. (By contrast, Hillary Clinton has won approximately 1,600 delegates so far.) Brown's attacks at the time were far more personal and bruising than anything we've seen this cycle. As The New York Times reported on June 2, 1992, Brown "put his party on notice that he intends to carry his politics-is-corrupt, Clinton-is-unelectable message to the Democratic National Convention in New York in July, and beyond." Brown also told the Times that voting for Clinton was like buying a ticket on the Titanic.
At the time, Clinton was actually polling in third place nationally, behind President George H.W. Bush and independent candidate Ross Perot, so why wasn't the press in a frenzy demanding that Brown drop out of the race because he was hurting his party's chances in November?
If you look at Reagan and Kennedy and Hart and Jackson and Brown, those men all ran competitive races. But toward the end of the primary season it was clear most of them had no mathematical chance of winning the nomination. (Reagan was the exception.) Yet none of them was told collectively by the press to go home. Nor were they routinely depicted in the media as being self-absorbed.
Today, Clinton does have a chance to win. Yet she has been told by the press to go home and to get over herself.
It's unprecedented.

by JohnnyB 2008-05-11 10:42AM | 0 recs
Re: NOT OVER

Thank you, JohnnyB!  Notice none of the Obama guys have a response to this informative comment!

by moevaughn 2008-05-11 11:20AM | 0 recs
Re: NOT OVER

When a major primary candidate contests the nomination all the way to the convention and floor fight (such as Ford/Reagan in 1976, Carter/Kennedy in 1980, Mondale/Hart in 1984) it can fatally weaken the eventual nominee (such as Ford/Reagan in 1976, Carter/Kennedy in 1980, Mondale/Hart in 1984).

Minor candidates(Jerry Brown, Jesse Jackson), on the other hand are more often seeking influence at the convention rather than fighting for the actual nomination and their impact is usually minor.

The media is not telling Clinton to quit.  The media is just reporting that it's very, very unlikely that she will win the nomination.  It's the party(Dean, Pelosi, Reid, et al.) which is saying that the fight will not go on to the convention not the press.

by rmx2630 2008-05-11 01:10PM | 0 recs
I'm all for her staying in, if...

she runs a positive campaign that is about her "strengths" rather than about his "weaknesses."

A positive campaign about issues would be welcome rather than the negative campaign gotcha games and identity politics we have seen all too often these past few months.

Let her make her case, but she should do it without tearing Obama down.

by you like it 2008-05-11 12:25PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Why you're absolutely correct!

It's not over after all! Nothing is decided!

The actual race will be Dennis Kucinich vs. Ron Paul!

I knew it all along.

by rmx2630 2008-05-11 12:13PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

At the rate this is going after the Democratic Convention in August there will still be some Hillary diehards who will be saying that Senator Obama could literally fall under a bus tomorrow and Hillary will be fighting the general election.

by My Ob 2008-05-11 10:41AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

What was it that former foreign policy adviser Samantha Power said (before she got hoof in mouth disease) in her March 2008 interview with the New Statesman? Oh, yes, "Obama has talked a lot about the importance of moving away from electocracy..." Nice.

by Artificial Intelligence 2008-05-11 10:41AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

While taking this to the convention might make great TV it won't make for a win in November.

There is only one way this can go to the convention and have Hillary come out as the nominee. Some disaster would have to hit Obama that truly takes him out. Any other way and it looks like a back room deal.

by jsfox 2008-05-11 10:41AM | 0 recs
June is a backroom

The only way it does NOT go to the conventon is if it is a backroom deal NOW. That's what all this talk about the SDs or elders 'stepping in' to 'settle' it in June amounts to -- them getting together in a back room and than announcing their 'decision'.

Luckily, Hillary can't be bluffed by that sort of thing.

by 1950democrat 2008-05-11 02:32PM | 0 recs
Talk about redundant diaries.

The race is not over only because Obama has yet to run his victory lap at the convention.

by Kobi 2008-05-11 10:47AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

So we really want to cede three months of campaigning to the Republicans?

We'll get murdered in November if Senator Obama can't spend that time running against McCain.

by Reaper0Bot0 2008-05-11 10:47AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

McCain is beatable in one week.
Read the latest polls.
No one is focusing on him now.

Remember, right now about 45 44 is dividing the candidates support among democrats that voted.
Both sides are dug in.  It has to play all the way out for us to come together and beat McCain.

by JohnnyB 2008-05-11 10:52AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

And it will play all the way out... to mid-June.  

By then all voting will be done, FL and MI will be resolved, and the SD's will have put Obama over the needed number.

by map 2008-05-11 10:57AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Wait, Clinton is still running hard because she believes that only she can beat McCain, but it will be trivially easy for Obama to beat McCain, so there is no reason that we should worry that refusing to treat Obama as the presumptive nominee all summer will do any harm. Does that make any sense?

by letterc 2008-05-11 02:14PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

obama has 50 million dollars, so his best way to convince that he is electable is by starting to run against mccain which he is doing anyway, so in 3 months  we might get clever

by awayer 2008-05-11 11:01AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Let us know when you do get clever :)

by interestedbystander 2008-05-11 12:10PM | 0 recs
Re: campaigning

Why does Obama have to wait to start his campaign advertising v. McCain? He's got plenty of money, and MSM and O supporters have declared hin presumptive nominee. Why does Hillary have to get out for him to begin advertising against McCain?  

HRC should go all the way to convention. Dems always have and that's what makes the Dem Convention exciting.  Also, she and all her voters will have more bargaining power at convention (for universal health care, e.g.).  There's no way she should give up.

by moevaughn 2008-05-11 11:09AM | 0 recs
The race is not over

But the nomination likely is.

by lombard 2008-05-11 10:57AM | 0 recs
The Race is FAR FROM OVER

exactly! supers will change their mind, especially after she will crash the loser  in WV, KY & PR.

I bet GOPs will start swiftboating of the loser soon, I am sure Hillary knows about it, but trying to play softball (I do not prove softballing, Obamacrats are very mean and undeserving people).
Supers will have plenty of reasons to change their mind, just wait when Florida and Michigan will be resolved.

However, Dems have habit to lose, so they may choose to lose again.

by engels 2008-05-11 10:59AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is FAR FROM OVER

A mind is a terrible thing to waste.

by parahammer 2008-05-11 11:04AM | 0 recs
take a few days off from MyDD

Maybe you should take a break. Your post isn't even coherent.

by Carl Nyberg 2008-05-11 11:06AM | 0 recs
Re: take a few days off from MyDD

What?  You didn't know that WV and KY are the only states that count?

by thezzyzx 2008-05-11 12:00PM | 0 recs
Re: take a few days off from MyDD

Oh, and Puerto Rico!  Oh, wait, it's not even a state......

And I used to live there.  I'm not mocking it.

by Reaper0Bot0 2008-05-11 12:55PM | 0 recs
i suggest you just open your own blog

i promise I will not visit it!

by engels 2008-05-11 02:46PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

I think the next suggestion is, we have an election for

"The back-up president"....

Which, the Clinton campaign will says, IS NOT the VP, but the person EVERYONE AGREES is the second choice.

So, the day after Senator Obama is sworn in, folks like Little Otter can set down the list of neccessary requirements for Obama to Step down, and Hillary to be sworn in.

My guess, the list would start with

1. The sun comes up.....

by WashStateBlue 2008-05-11 11:05AM | 0 recs
Apply the Golden Rule

How would you feel if your candidate had the lead in pledged delegates and was getting the overwhelming majority of superdelegates (including switchers) and the other candidate insisted he had a right to campaign against your candidate?

What if he was openly saying that HRC can't win without male voters and the election results show she's weak with male voters?

The longer HRC drags this out, the more likely it will be that she gets whacked in her next U.S. Senate campaign.

HRC has a right to keep running for the nomination, and the voters of NY have a right to dump her when she stands for re-election.

by Carl Nyberg 2008-05-11 11:17AM | 0 recs
Re: Apply the Golden Rule

HRC has no way of losing in NY as long as she wants to keep being as Senator, however, she wants to be President now.  I said there's 11 weeks between June 3 and Aug. 24.  Maybe even the die-hards would vote differently if some unknown news were to surface, don't you think?

You can make anything you want out of the exit information.  It's a free country.

by JohnnyB 2008-05-11 11:27AM | 0 recs
is the Clinton campaign incompetent?

What is the basis for thinking there's some damning information about Obama that's going to come out?

What is the origin of this thinking? Wouldn't it be more evidence that the Clinton campaign (opposition research) was completely incompetent?

by Carl Nyberg 2008-05-11 11:51AM | 0 recs
Re: Apply the Golden Rule

I can't believe democrats are praying for an October surprise about their own candidate.  Good grief.

by interestedbystander 2008-05-11 12:13PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

What happens if our "presumptive nominee" gets beat up so badly this summer that the "unpledged" delegates (who officially vote in August) -- are forced to turn to the other candidate to have any chance of winning in November?

by pan230oh 2008-05-11 11:27AM | 0 recs
Simple

We lose.

by rf7777 2008-05-11 12:39PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Pan:  That's exactly the point.  We don't know what will be discovered prior to August 24, and no one is the nominee until then.  Presumptive nominee is all they are called until the official vote at the convention.  I know some supporters want to crown one of the candidates now, but sorry, that's not in the rules.

by JohnnyB 2008-05-11 11:30AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

i wonder what would be said if it was the other way around

by nj49ers83 2008-05-11 11:52AM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

the problem with Obama is that he isnt closing the deal.

that is why this isn't over.  he isnt' winning overwhelmingly.  when you look at the numbers, he has the slightest of leads and basically it is a tied race.

in a race this close, hillary knows that something small can knock obama off the horse he rode in on.  she knows that he is untested and that his lack of experience at even running for office leaves the door wide open for a major collapse that can happen in one day.  example the dean scream.  

she also knows that once all the voting is done, supers will/should look at key voting blocks and who is carrying them.  looking at this for the general will tell them that perhaps hillary does have the better chance at winning.

waiting through the summer months will allow the gop to start attacking obama and we will all see how he holds up.  if he tanks and is thrown off his horse, hillary will hop on and ride it to victory.

lot of what ifs, but all real possibilities and hillary is a smart woman and isn't going to give up until all is said and done.  she more than has that right with a candidate that is weak and has yet to close the deal.

if obama had closed the deal with democrats, he would have repeated overwhelming victories.  that hasn't been the case.

by Scope441 2008-05-11 12:15PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Once the narrative has turned against you, you can't fight it.  That is starting to happen now, and it will be overwhelming once the voting is over and Obama is still ahead.  The supers will give him 2025, and then Hillary will have to concede.  If she tries to hold out until the convention the party will turn on her, including many of her own advisers and inner circle - several have already said it's done by June 3rd.  If she insists at this point in staying in, her career in politics is over.  She is a smart woman - she will not allow herself to be humiliated.

by interestedbystander 2008-05-11 12:28PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Dewey Wins

Sometimes the media is WRONG.

Hillary is smart, that is for sure.  Wait until August, the rules call for a delegate vote to Crown the Nominee.  NOT BEFORE.

by JohnnyB 2008-05-11 12:33PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Obama supporters and the MSM: "If the Supers GIVE Hillary the nomination, it would be a damnable thing and the party will not recover for decades to come."

"If Obama is ahead of Clinton in pledged delegates by even less than a hundred delegates--even if Clinton has the popular vote--then, the Supers can GIVE Obama the nomination so the Democrats can win in the Fall."

The bottom line is that no one should be given the nomination--not even Prince Obama.

by Check077 2008-05-11 01:08PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

So, neither of them gets the nomination?  That's just silly - he is not being given the nomination.  It's a delegate race - he has more, she cannot catch up in pledged delegates, the supers are free to do what they want, and they are flocking to Obama.  Of course if they were to switch to Clinton, that would be within the rules, and there will likely be a significant disenchantment among voters that may well cost her the GE.  But that isn't happening - every day she gets further behind, he is winning by the rules, and the supers are sealing his win with their approval.

Popular vote?  If that were such an important metric, the supers would take it into account - after all, they are a well informed group.  They are not buying the Clinton campaign's spinning of the figures - only diehard fans are.

by interestedbystander 2008-05-12 01:44AM | 0 recs
Re: Yet you forget

That Hillary Clinton hasn't done that either, so what's your freakin' point?

by LtWorf 2008-05-11 12:29PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

she also knows that once all the voting is done, supers will/should look at key voting blocks and who is carrying them.  looking at this for the general will tell them that perhaps hillary does have the better chance at winning.

Yep. This isn't about delegates, it's about electoral votes. Obama has shown that he can't get the big demographics that he would need in the GE, when his red caucus states go red and his "DEms for a Day" go back to the GOP.

by 1950democrat 2008-05-11 02:47PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Hillary is going to drop out long before the convention. There won't be a fight. She'll concede, at which point there will be absolutely no motivation for a super to "switch" to a side that has declared its own candidacy dead.

by mattw 2008-05-11 12:25PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER
Right on target, Scope.
Thanks.
by JohnnyB 2008-05-11 12:26PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Hey Matt:  What did Romney do?  He SUSPENDED his race.  He did not concede.  

After the last primary on the Demo side, Hillary will await the official delegate vote count in August.  End of story.  

by JohnnyB 2008-05-11 12:29PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

It's my understanding the Gavel, Kucinich, and Richardson dropped out of the race but Edwards, also only SUSPENDED his race.

I hate to get morbid here, but, I'll use McCain for an example (and ask as well of the DNC) What if McCain or any of our candidates actually became the nominee after the convention and died of a heart attack, car accident, plane crash or something and had not yet picked a VP. Do you or anyone know of the contingency plan we would have for that? Not wishing bad on anyone, but campaigning is long hours and lots of travel.

by Justwords 2008-05-11 12:40PM | 0 recs
What great insight

It's perfect.  Let's wait all the way until the end of August to start the campaign against McCain.  We don't need those three months.  It is much better to keep the whole thing open and give Hillary a "fighting chance."  That makes perfect sense.

by rf7777 2008-05-11 12:37PM | 0 recs
Re: What great insight

Our new strategy is to give Hillary a chance so the rest of us don't have one?

Sweet!

by Reaper0Bot0 2008-05-11 12:57PM | 0 recs
In the immortal words of Yogi Berra:

"A ballgame ain't over 'til it's over."

by magnetics 2008-05-11 01:09PM | 0 recs
Great post

Funny how so many people have trouble remembering pesky little facts!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

by The Smoldering Crone 2008-05-11 02:28PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

I will gladly support HRC and her convention fight for teh nomination BUT

I want her to take Mark Penn on a boat into international waters and beat him into a bloody pulp and make him a vegetable so he cannot screw another candiadte with his ineptitude, stupidity and arrogance

by kmwray 2008-05-11 06:02PM | 0 recs
Re: The Race is NOT OVER

Thank YOU!!! You are CORRECT....

by nikkid 2008-05-11 08:26PM | 0 recs

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