I feel fairly confident that three of the Texas 5 are going to win.
I'm friends with Sandlin and Frost so I can speak with a little more authority on them than I can on Edwards.
Max Sandlin has consistently been ahead of his challenger in the polls. He is a candidate that transcends party affiliation. His constituents love him and the support from the portion of his old district and the rural areas of the new portion support him strongly. Max appears to win by as much as 5 points.
Frost can never be underestimated. His campaign has been one of most efficient and organized grass roots campaigns I have ever seen. Frost is a shrewd politician. Over the years has earned the respect and trust of every constituency in the community, including business AND labor.
Remember Dallas County is very moderate. The current and previous mayors were liberal democrats and TX CD-32 is entirely in Dallas County.
Bush is coming to Dallas tonight because they know Sessions is in trouble. I feel like Frost wins on turnout by 1-2%.
As for Edwards, what I'm reading and reports from my friends is that his opponent's campaign has been so negative it has actually backfired and Edwards appears to be slightly ahead.
I have no intelligence on the other two races. The burntorangereport blog has the best news on the races in TX.
Yes it is only available through cable or satellite. I have DirectTV. If the Sundance Channel is not part of your subscription, I would strongly recommend that you at least sign up for a trial period.
I have seen all of these documentaries and they are very powerful and need to been seen by a wide audience. In particular, Bush's Brain should be seen by every American to understand the power behind the throne of the Bush administration.
If you know any undecided voters that aren't voting until Election Day. Host a party on Monday night and invite them over to watch these films. Nobody should vote before seeing them.
Spread the word. On the Sundance Channel tonight is a great documentary. The Sundance Channel is playing some important documentaries as the election approaches including a documentary marathon on election eve. Please send this information to everyone you know and have them check www.sundancechannel.com for show times.
Uncovered: The Whole Truth About The Iraq War.
With God On Our Side: George W. Bush and the Rise of the Religious Right in America
Unprecedented: The 2000 Presidential Election
I think you are confusing Dallas county with Highland Park. In 2000, the vote breakdown in Dallas County for President was Bush 52% - Gore 45%. For example, Ron Kirk and Laura Miller, who are fairly liberal, would have never been elected as mayor if Dallas was very conservative. My opinion is that Dallas is politically moderate and Frost appeals to the same base of support that has elected our mayors.
I live in Highland Park and yes, it is conservative but being Republican is more of an identity instead of an ideology. I know of many Republicans in Highland Park, especially business owners, who plan to vote for Martin. Here is the common theme among their reasons for voting for him.
He is business friendly and has a reputation for getting things done.
He is Independent. Many of the older Republicans don't want to be represented by one of Delay's soldiers.
He puts the issues of his constituents first, before party loyalty, etc.
He is fiscally conservative
He has clout in the Congress, even more clout if and when the Democrats retake control of the House.
They all say they want someone seasoned and tough so that our influence isn't diminished.
The DCCC has started stepping up the GOTV effort this week. The polls show the race tied which means it will come down to turnout.
I have been analyzing the early voting and based on limited data we have regarding party identification from primary voting, it appears that the early voting is fairly evenly divided between the parties. Historically in Dallas county, early voting is usually won by the Republicans. So the trend this year is good news for Frost if on Election Day the Democrats follow their historical pattern of turn out in higher numbers.
Good Update. But I disagree on your prediction about Frost. I'm a precinct chairman in CD-32 and have been working on the Frost campaign all year. I think the race is a dead heat and Frost may win it on turnout. I agree that Max and Chet are good bets to win another term.