Because Obama can't improve his standing in that demographic between now and November?
Given his improvement in most demographics that have gone heavily for Clinton in the weeks between OH and PA, it sure seems like he might have a chance to improve his standing in the months befoe November:
60 and older 28 38
White 34 38
White men 39 44
White women 31 34
Less than $50K 42 46
No college 40 38
College 51 49
Catholic 36 31
Protestant 36 53
Clinton's #2 staffer sits on the DNC and voted for the rules.
Clinton is crying about Obama disenfranchising FL & MI voters while her guy, Harold Ickes, personally voted for the rules under which FL & MI's delegates would not be seated if they persisted in breaking the rules he voted for. So isn't it Clinton (by the usual rules of guilt by association, or in this case responsibility for the actions of your employees) who has disenfranchised FL and MI voters?
Ok, no is your answer to that (looking at my ever so accurate crystal ball), so then in the end, it is the legislators who voted to move the primaries and screw their own constituents, isn't that the unvarnished truth?
Are you saying that Obama, or any Democrat is going to lose California, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts in November?
Cause if you are, please provide exactly how you came to that conclusion.
As for Florida, do you really think that if they held their primary on or after Super Tuesday and both campaigns had competed vigorously the result would have been 17 points?
How about Michigan? The best HRC could do against, quite literally, nobody, was 10 points.
I'll give you Ohio, well except for the fact that it's been on the reddish side of purple for some time, so it'll be a tough slog no matter who is our candidate, which, BTW, isn't going to be HRC unless she can get at least a 15 - 20% win in PA, and even if she does, she then needs to cut Obama's 20 point lead in NC at least in half and win Indiana by well more than 10% and even then she'll STILL be behind in both the delegate count and popular vote.
Reason number 641 why I've stopped contributing to interest groups (as opposed to political groups like MoveOn - who I sometimes have other problems with - and DFA).
Cash should go as directly as possible to electing candidates who will nominate and vote for progressive judges.
It'd sure be great if groups like PFAW got their shit together, but I'm not holding my breath. No matter what they say, their prime directive is make sure we can pay our salaries and stay in business (something DFA is guilty of as well I'm afraid), everything else comes after that.
Approximate ditto - same basic pattern (I'm a newly minted AARP member @ 50), different specifics.
As to Chris' basic question: is there a political mission accomplished in our future? I have very serious doubts unless and until there is 100% public financing of elections at all levels, reversal of media consolidation (whether by law or de facto by emerging technologies) and populist tax reform that substantially reduces the downward spiral of wealth consolidation.
While I do my best to never say never, I really can't imagine a defeated Senate candidate, especially one trounced as badly as Santorum was, running a primary challenge against an incumbent senator with whom he previously served.
This is so against the grain of the ethos of the Senate that it really is unthinkable. If Santorum were to do it, and somehow managed to get elected, he would be persona non grata in the Senate - as close to pre-emptive political suicide as you can get.
maybe, or maybe he's looking to pre-empt serious opposition by building an insurmountable war-chest. If he stays healthy and has, I don't know, say $15 or $20MM in the bank by Jan '10, would that turn a challenge into windmill tilting?
Sorry, but you're 100% wrong. Joe Sestak has introduced a bill, co-sponsored by Bob Brady, Chaka Fattah, David Loebsack, Pete Stark, Steve Cohen, Patrick Kennedy and Carol Shea-Porter, that calls for redeployment by
12/31/2007 => http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c1
So if Toomey is going to run, won't the GOP establishment be on their knees begging Specter to run again - along with another promise of buckets of campaign cash - as the best way to keep Toomey off the ballot as he's a sure loss in November?