Which is all you need to do to win a special election. I don't see Dems heading out to vote to spite the appearance by Palin, but I could see thousands of Reps getting fired up by her appearance and then heading to the polls.
2.6 million votes so far. 41% of registered voters. 75% of the total vote from 2004.
51% turnout already amoungst blacks, 26% of the total. Whites comprise only 69% of the electorate so far.
Dem/Rep/Un breakdown is 52/30/18.
Based on reports of polling of early voters, Obama is leading early by at least 8 pts (conservatively, PPP had it at 25 pts earlier in the week). If we assume that turnout Nov4 is massive (2 million more votes), McCain needs to win the election day vote by more than 11%. I'm struggling to keep my optimism cautious.
She asked a question based on bad information. Any attack aimed at her treatment of special needs children needs to be absolutely accurate, as the families of special needs kids are pretty large and motivated demographic. They will already be sympathic to Palin, the spread of an inaccurate talking point will be hard to overcome.
I saw that "cut special needs funding by 62%" stat last night. A little digging shows it is a red herring. Shame on her for just pushing it out there without spending 10 minutes looking at the details. I'm all for trashing Palin's record when she's a hypocrite, but for crying out loud make sure your right.
That budget dropped from around 8 million to 3 million from 2007 to 2008. The drop was due to moving a 5 million dollar program (Alaska Challenge Youth Academy) out of the bigger budget in 2007 into it's own budget line in 2008. The funding for special needs education did drop about 0.5%, which would be worthwhile pointing out, but by throwing out the 62% number you destroy the argument.
People discount the evangelical base getting fired up. That WAS Bush's ground game, and the WEREN'T working for McCain. Sure, they were going to vote for him, but the ground game that won Bush Ohio wasn't there for McCain until now. Where McCain could attract 1000 people to a rally, and get the resulting media coverage, with Palin he's now drawing over 10,000 people to successive rallies, and he's making news.
What I've seen of her suggests shes intelligent, articulate and charasmatic...ie...no Dan Quayle, and no Geraldyne Ferraro for that matter. We need to assume she's going to be an asset to McCains campaign. If we take her seriously, and she blows up, what have we lost? NOTHING. But if we sit around waiting for her to blow up and she's competent and proves popular, we've lost time. The election is still Obama vs McCain, keep focused on that and not the distraction of Palin.
I don't know how many McCain rallies you've watched, but the one I saw today was the first one I've seen that the crowd showed any enthusiasm. The pick of Palin gives his enthusiasm gap a big shot in the arm, and likely will energize the Karl Rove foot soldier brigade that was so crucial to Bush's win in 2004.
Plus, she's going to have crossover appeal to independents, particularly independent women with kids.
I see this as a savvy, gutsy pick, not one made in desparation. She makes the ticket alot better.
Right now the party affiliation breakdown by voter registration is D45 R33 I22, but as mentioned above alot of the registered Dems vote Rep at the federal level and Dem at the state level, so 40-40-20 is certainly believable.
I thought it was a dumb argument then and is dumber now, as all the McCain camp has to do is say you are disrespecting his service. Then you have to do back flips saying you are not disrespecting McCains service, but questioning his qualifications, which sounds like backpeddling, and nobody will beleive you anyway.
I've heard so many numbers thrown about on the cost of solar arrays it makes my head spin. I've heard them as high as $80,000 for a set up similar to what you describe. Can you cite where you got your numbers from? Is this mounted on the ground or on a roof? Any information you can provide would be appreciated.
You'll vote for Obama, but he doesn't excite you. You got a big platform, get off your ass and do something with it. Instead using it to whine about your nominee, why not find a dozen senate, congressional and governor candidates that can get you motivated, and raise their profile? Or analyze which states can best utilize additional resources this summer in improving democratic prospects in the fall. Or are your days of crashing gates behind you? Time to coast?