• comment on a post Primary Super Tuesday #3 Preview over 7 years ago

    I don't see Tasini getting 20% of the vote. That's just a far-left fantasy.

  • comment on a post MoveOn and GCI: still strip-mining the grassroots over 7 years ago

    Well this doesn't surprise me. Companies like GCI use and abuse young people who don't know any better. The manipulate young and naive idealistic people right out of college and work them to death. It's quite ironic that organizations ostensibly fighting against corporations that abuse their employees, trying to gain support for minimum wage increases, and striving to protect unions use the same tactics that they deplore on their on workforce.

    I had a similiar experience with another nonprofit. Years after the fact I'm still suffering from the financial loss. I ended up moving to another state for a job that didn't really exist.

  • comment on a post Zogby Interactive Polls over 7 years ago

    Aren't these polls biased and not valid statistically? Frankly isn't the same poll touted by Pennachio's supporters earlier in the year that their candidate could beat Santorum too?

  • comment on a post Past Month Senate Poll Averages over 7 years ago

    One other thing: The NRSC is clearly playing defense. That the NRSC really has only maybe two-three shots at pickups indicates that they have not had a good cycle. The Democratic seats most likely to fall are:

    1. MD

    1. NJ
    2. MN

    WA and MI seem to be semicompetetive, but I think that both Cantwell and Stabenow will win. The margins will be closer than people expect, but they are headed to victory.

    The Republican seats most likely to fall are:

    1. PA

    1. RI
    2. OH
    3. MT
    ---------------------------------------- -----------
    1. MO
    2. VA
    3. TN
    4. AZ
    5. NV

    I put the dotted line up there to indicate that, if the election were held today, the Democrats would win the top four. To get the Senate back they need to win two out of the bottom five. I think their best shots there are McCaskill, Webb, and Ford. Their longshorts are Peterson and Carter.

    9/12 will answer a lot questions. Should Cardin win in MD and Laffey prevail in RI, then the Democrats are in better shape.

  • comment on a post Past Month Senate Poll Averages over 7 years ago

    Well, if I were the head of the NRSC, this is what I would do.

    1. Pull out of RI and PA. (At this point, if Laffey is truly ahead in the primary polling by double digits, nothing will save Lincoln Chaffee. If Chaffee wins the primary, if polling shows him competetive, I would throw money. But at this point I would pull out or RI. As for PA, unless polling significantly changes, Santorum remains mired in the high 30's/low 40's. So I don't think it's likely that Santorum will come back).

    2. Try to save OH, MT, VA, TN, and MO. At this point thsee five seats are the most vulnerable for the Republicans. I would throw money crazily at these contests.

    3. Put money in MD and NJ. These two seats are probably the best Republican pickup targets. Depending on whether MFume or Cardin wins the primary, I would fund Steele. I would definitely fund Kean. Klobuchar seems to have the edge in Minnesota.

    If I were the DSCC here is how I would throw my money.

    1. PA: I would continue to throw money to Bob Casey. He needs the money. If he is ahead by the middle of October I would consider pulling out. However, I would throw money at this race to ensure that Santorum remains gone.

    2. OH: I would do everything in my power to put Mike DeWine out of contention. All the polling has had Brown ahead. Given that Blackwell is headed to a stinging defeat to Ted Strickland, I would do everything to keep Brown ahead--and ensure that it stays this way.

    3. RI: If Laffey wins the primary the DSCC can drop this race. If Chaffee wins the DSCC will have to monitor this race. If Whitehouse remains ahead then it may be able to pull out.

    4. MO, MT, VA, and TN: I would hit funding hard in those four reaces. I would make sure that Burns is knocked out. I would really pump cash into MO. But honestly, if MO follows the nation, then McCaskill will win. I would aggressively throw money to Ford and Webb.

    5. NJ and MD: Depending on whether Cardin or MFume wins the primary, I would decide whether to throw money. 9/12 will answer a lot of questions for RI and MD. If MFume wins the primary then he will need tons of money. I would aggressively monitor NJ. Menendez has plenty of money to go on TV with, but I would make sure that he is funded.

    6. AZ and NV: These are at the back of the money priority. Unfortunately both of these races have failed to develop. Unless both Carter and Pederson can catch fire late in the campaign, I would have to say that Kyl and Ensign are headed to comfortable victories. Nothing against Jack Carter, but he simply hasn't been able to close the gap. Hopefully, if he can do well this cycle, maybe he can position himself to run for something.

  • on a comment on Past Month Senate Poll Averages over 7 years ago

    I see some differences between NC and PA. First of all, unlike NC, Santorum doesn't have a strong Republican president on the ticket. If anything Bush is a millstone around his neck. Secondly, unlike Bowles, Casey has won elective office.

    The PA race was going to tighten. What I think is happening is that the GOP base is starting to "come home". It happens near the end of every close campaign.

    In the end it wouldn't surprise me if Santorum captures 45-48% of the vote. But I think, given what I have seen, Santorum is not going to close the gap enough to win.

    But I have been wrong before.

  • No final determination; but, from what I've seen, enough of his signatures are fradulent that he won't make the ballot.

  • Well I said the same thing about Romanelli. You are right: if they thought they could win a two-man race, they wouldn't have aggressively sought to place him on the ballot. Probably their internal polling numbers indicated that they couldn't win a two-man race.

    Even the Quinnipac poll, which was the most favorable toward Santorum, the numbers were not good. The most important number was the fact that Santorum polled only 39% in the suburbs of Philadelphia. With numbers that low in those crucial counties surrounding Philadelphia, he cannot find enough votes to win.

    So I agree with you.

  • The race was always going to tighten. What is probably happening, Fran, is that the GOP base is coming home. In the end, though, I think Santorum is still likely headed toward defeat. He still hasn't gotten out of the high 30's/low 40's. If more polls come out in line with that supposed internal poll, then I'll worry. But for now it seems like an outlier. For a week ago the USA Today poll had him ahead by a 56-38% margin. I think both polls may be outliers.

  • Weren't you a Pennachio supporter from Day One? I'm sorry, but here and other forums there were people predicting "gloom and doom" if Casey were the nominee and that only Pennachio could "save the day"?

    No one ever said the race wouldn't tighten. It will tighten, but all the polls have continually shown Santorum in the high 30's/low 40's. I think he will gain support inevitably in the final weeks when the GOP base comes home.

    I still think Casey is going win, albeit it will be around 4 points or so. I could see Santorum getting 47-48% of the vote.

    I never said it would be a blowout.

  • One issue is that Bush is extremely unpopular in Rhode Island. If this were 2002 or 2004 Chaffee would have a shot. I think that Bush is just too unpopular in RI for him to win.

  • comment on a post RNC Giving Up on PA-Sen, MT-Sen and RI-Sen over 7 years ago

    Frankly this is how I see it:

    1. PA: Santorum has been mired in the high 30's/low 40's through the campaign. He hasn't caught up any ground. There is that link that shows that there is a rumor that Casey's internals show that Santorum is within three points. I honestly would wait for more confirmation, though. That poll may be an outlier.

    At this point, though, if I were the head of the NRSC, I'd probably cut my losses. Santorum has not made any ground. The dynamics in this race haven't shifted. Maybe in later October, if the numbers tighetened, I would send more money; but, as it stands, I'd pull out.

    2. RI: If the poll that showed Laffey ahead by double-digits is correct, with only a few days before the primary, I'd wait and see if Chaffe pulls it out. If he does I'd donate money. If Laffey wins then this seat is gone.

    So if I were Dole I would probably then focus my resources on these seats: MO, MT, OH, TN, VA. Those are the Republican seats that I would send money to. Pending the results of the primary, I would then focus on trying to win MN, WA, NJ, and MD (but this depends on whether MFume wins the primary. If Cardin wins the primary then MD loses its ability).

    The NRSC, though, is clearly playing defense at this point.

  • I hate to say this, but you seem to be a bitter Pennachio supporter. It's like you almost want Casey to lose.

  • on a comment on What if We Win the Senate? over 7 years ago

    Actually not true. The Senate flipped to the GOP in 1980 while the Democrats kept the Congress.

  • I am sure that data warehousing and data mining could really help the Democratic Party. It wouldn't surprise me if the RNC has a sophisticated data warehousing and data mining system to identify likely Republican voters.


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