Well I am headed to bed now. The Baltimore Sun now has Franchot behind Owens by 4000 votes. 87.45% of the precincts are in.
The county breakdown that I have is this:
Anne Arundel County: 86.46% of the precincts there are reporting. Owens is winning here, as this is her home county. 166 out of 192precints have reported. Owens is winning by 6,000 votes here.
Montgomery County: 195/233 precincts have reported in this county. Franchot has an approximate lead of 30,000 votes. These final precincts should add to his total and may make the difference between winning and losing.
Prince George's County: 61.65% of the precincts have reported. Franchot is winning here, as this is part of the DC suburbs. 127/206 precincts have reported. Franchot has about a 5,000 vote there. There are about 79 precincts precincts left there.
Based on these trends, given that there are about 155 (127+38) pro-Franchot precincts out compared to only 26 for Owens, I think that Franchot will eke out a win once the last precincts report.
1568 out 1793 precincts are reporting. (127+38+26) 191 precincts are left out in Anne Arundel, Montgomery, and PG Counties. 1793-1568 = 225 precincts left to report statewide.
That means that of the remaining precincts ((155/225)*100) 68.8% should break for Franchot. ((26/225)*100) 11.55% should break for Owens. That leaves 19.55% that could break either way that I can't account for. These precincts are probably scattered across the state and thus could go any way. They are random.
Based on these trends, and given that there are probably more than normal provisional ballots from Montgomery County, I think that Franchot will overtake Owens very late in the count. However, once all the votes are counted, I predict a very narrow win for him. Unless those other 26 precincts break for Owens overwhelimingly, if his margins in Montgomery and PG Counties follow the earlier totals, then Franchot is headed to victory, albeit a very narrow one.
I am tired and am turning to bed, so I would appreciate it if someone could check my math. Otherwise I guess we will know tommorrow morning tommorrow morning who won.
Well frankly what she and the other Baltimore-area candidates should have done was sue and demand that the extra hour be allowed statewide. Frankly, if I had been the judge, I would issued an order requiring that the polls stay open until 9 PM statewide.
From what I can tell there are more pro-Franchot precincts out there than pro-Owens. Owens has only 20% left of Anne Arundel County to report. There are still more pro-Franchot precints out in Montgomery and PG Counties. If Franchot continues to dominate Montgomery County, then when the late votes reports, he will probably overtake Owens.
This race is coming down to the wire. Franchot and Owens will come down to the wire. There are fewer precincts out in Anne Arundel County, where Owens is winning, as oppose dto PG County, where Franchot is winning. PG County has more votes than Anne Arundel. I can't call this one.
Owens has a very narrow lead of a few thousand votes, but there are more pro-Franchot than pro-Owens precincts left.
I am not sure where Montgomery County stands. According to their county elections web site, 150 precincts have reported. In 2004 there were 233 precincts that reported. So there might still be a ton of pro-Franchot precincts out there.
Thus I can't predict where this one is going. If there are more Montgomery and PG County precincts, where are pro-Franchot out, than pro-Ownes prencincts, then Franchot could still win.
Why do you want MFume to win? Why do you want someone who would be dogged with questions about his illegitimate children and his past sexual harassment allegations as the candidate? Why do you want a candidate who will have no money and struggle in the Baltimore suburbs as a candidate?
I would say that MFume would probably still win a race against Michael Steele, but it would be very hard fought. MFume fathered several illegitiamte children. He has has allegations of sexual harassment from his days at the NAACP.
Those issues make me support Cardin. If MFume wins the primary I would see him having difficulties in the Baltimore suburbs, where white Reagan Democrats might have issues with him, especially in Baltimore and Anne Arundel counties. On top of that, becasue of the sexual harassment issues, I could see him having difficulties with white working women.
Overall, though, I think that MFume would still win. It would just require money that could go to other candidates--MFume is broke--and more effort than if Cardin won.
MFume fathered several illegitimate children. On top of that he had questionable dealings at the NAACP while he was its director. Had MFume not had the sexual harassment allegations at the NAACP on his reocrd I would be more supportive of him. Unfortunately his conduct makes me support Cardin.
The last poll I saw had MFume trailing Cardin by around 10%. My concern with MFume is that his past sexual behavior would scare white voters away from him in Anne Arundel and Baltimore counties, where races are won and lost in MD. I am concerend that MFume would not fare well in the Baltimore suburbs.
The real interesting race is for Controller. Schaffer is trailing Owens and Franchot by 1%. Schaffer has a bad track record: endorsing Republicans in past elections, being too close to Ehrlich, and sexually harassing women. Anne Arundel County Executive Janet Owens is challenging him, as is Montgomery County Delegate Peter Franchot. In that race, although Owens is probably going to win the primary, I support Franchot.
The other race is Attorney General. In this race it is between Stu Simms and Doug Gansler. I know more about Gansler because I live in DC and grew up in Montgomery County. I probably would lean toward Gansler if I lived in MD, but part of me hopes that Stu Simms wins the primary. I say that only, because if there are any racial hard feelings over MFume (probably) not winning the priamry, perhaps having a black AG candidate might mitigate any resentments.
In MD-4 I don't support Wynn because of his vote on the bankruptcy bill. I think it is time for a change, so I would vote for Edwards if I lived in the district. I also hope that Rushern Baker defeats Jack Johnson.
The people on this and other left-leaning blogs are NOT the target of the ad. The ad is geared probably toward military voters in the Hampton Roads/Tidewater VA area, a bloc that Webb needs to win if he is to defeat Allen. VA is not San Francisco.
Webb worked for Reagan. I don't see what is so wrong about him admitting that he was his Secretary of the Navy. For voters in VA the assocaition with Reagan will win him voters in the Tidewater region.
Rightly or wrongly some of you have to realize that the vast majority of Americans respect Reagan and thinks of him fondly. Even among registered Democrats Reagan is probably well-respected. I didn't agree with a lot of his polcies, but the narrative of Reagan has been set. Most people in this country revere him, especially in conservative states like Virginia.
Working for Reagan is part of Webb's background. Frankly he is dumb not to highlight that. His highlight of Reagan's comments makes him attractive to voters who would normally support Allen.
I think that the far left is being irrational in attacking Webb for mentioning Reagan in his TV ads.