Some thoughts and predictions
by jgkojak, Wed Jan 09, 2008 at 12:00:29 PM EST
A few thoughts and predictions in the wake of last night:
1) A Clinton/Obama ticket is more than likely if Clinton wins and it remains close.
Obama is gonna have a lot of cash, and it won't be needed by him for his Illinois Senate seat. One good use: if he's the Veep nominee he can use it for the general election campaign through the convention. That plus whatever Hillary would have would give the Dems a likely HUGE cash advantage through the summer (opposite of Kerry).
More thoughts in extended...
2) If Edwards remains in the race he plays Kingmaker. Even if it becomes prudent to back out before the convention, he could certainly add 20% to Obama's delegate count. If he stays in...
I'd assume he'd throw his support to Obama, and ask for concessions on trade and being <name cabinet post> (hopefully A.G.).
3) If Obama ends up winning, he will have a choice, depending on how much power Edwards has, to appease the Clinton camp or the progressive camp with his veep choice. I contend the best way to appease both would be to choose Jim Webb.
4) If it does go down to the wire or to the convention, that is an advantage for us, as it does not give the rightwing machine time to focus. In every losing Dem race (Dukakis, Kerry) recently, August has been deadly.
5) Obama pulling out of Michigan is either the smartest or dumbest political move in recent memory. His convincing Edwards to pull out of Michigan may have backfired: giving ANYONE a win over Hillary in Michigan helps stop Hillary.
6) All those states that moved to be a part of Super Tuesday will be sorry- because I don't see how this is settled and some of these later states will actually decide this race, if at all.